Will Arteta go full Pep?

If Saliba can't return, maybe it's galaxy-brain time

Think fast: What was Arsenal’s last Premier League loss?

If you said Feb. 15 to Manchester City, you’re on the money.

But despite ripping off 9 unbeaten (7 wins), times are tense among Arsenal supporters. Title chases don’t afford a lot of room for error, and the consecutive 2-2 draws suffered by the Gunners have brought on even more anxiety, and at least among the supporters, even more finger-pointing.

We’ve created a lot of scapegoats amongst ourselves over the past couple of weeks. Granit Xhaka, Ben White, Rob Holding, Thomas Partey, Gabriel, Kieran Tierney and Arteta himself have been among those under the microscope.

At least a couple of names on that list create a debate over whether they should even be there in the first place.

As things stand today, with Arsenal four ahead of City, whose next game is hosting our beloved tricky Reds at their Etihad Stadium, a few truths I think are pretty much not debatable:

Bukayo Saka will be fine

Even the greats occasionally miss a penalty. Bukayo’s been here before and rebounded in the best way possible. I put full faith in our starboy moving forward, simple as that. Now…

The players need to take their opposition more seriously

Here’s a fun thing: Arsenal are an extremely good side. They’ve scored more goals than the Invincibles and have a real chance to win more games.

In each of the past two weeks, they’ve also given us moments of “wow, we’re really doing this!” before pulling back. Against Liverpool, there are theories about Anfield, Xhaka, Ben White and other factors.

But against West Ham, it seemed like a cat playing with its food. Players were making cutesy flicks and having fun all over the pitch. Now, fun isn’t a bad thing. In fact, some of our best moments have come when players are playing loose! But there’s a time and place for it, and I’d say Thomas Partey got caught on the wrong side of things with his attempted flick over Declan Rice, of all people, in his defensive third, of all places, in the first half of the game, of all times.

Maybe there’s an element here of “been there, done that,” but comparing Manchester City at 2-0 to recent Arsenal games at 2-0 is night and day. The two goals may be boosting confidence too much, and then an element of panic sets in after the first concession.

I’m not a coaching expert or motivational speaker, but Mikel Arteta needs to do whatever he can to nip that habit in the bud. He should push his selected XI to not only score two early goals Friday night against Southampton — he should be pushing them for three, or four. Arsenal need to use this game as both a return to winning ways and a chance to practice the art of the quick kill. The best sides do not let this happen so often, and it’s fair to say this could be the next development step in Arsenal’s rise back to the top.

Rob Holding’s presence has been a net negative

He’s simply not as good as William Saliba, on the ball or off. And I don’t think there’s been a debate about that in any credible areas of the fan base. He certainly should be upgraded upon this summer, and I’d even go so far as to wonder aloud whether he’d be playing if Takehiro Tomiyasu were fit. But there’s certainly debate over just how bad he’s been, with opinions running the gamut from abysmal to meh. I’m closer to the latter, basically I’d say he’s not been good but we don’t need the fine-toothed comb that’s been taken to his game to see the deficiencies.

There’s plenty of visual aid to prove the point, so I won’t dig up too much, but Scott’s Debrief as usual has great visuals to show Holding’s depth in our buildup, among other things.

West Ham 2 (1.8)-(2.8) 2 Arsenal: The Debrief

Rob didn’t make a single progressive pass against West Ham, which isn’t good considering his battery mate Gabriel made 5. Holding had been doing much better previously, with 9 over the past three games going into West Ham, but in games where Arsenal need to move the ball progressively in a hurry, he’s not a great fit. Given that his 1v1 defending is not his calling card, Holding needs to do better passing the ball if he’s to keep his spot as the Saliba replacement.

Without Oleksandr Zinchenko, this side struggles

Zinchenko is the leading progressive passer on this team, averaging nearly 10 per 90 minutes (Partey would be next with 8).

Kieran Tierney, meanwhile, was bad on the ball yesterday, losing possession 13 times on 67 touches. In case you were wondering, Zinchenko committed 5 turnovers against Liverpool in 68 touches. Tierney was also 1 for 7 on long passes against West Ham, while Zinchenko was 4/5 against a better side.

For the record, Tierney had one progressive pass. I can’t imagine that helps the Rob Holding situation, either.

Tierney did have one good cutback to Gabriel Jesus, which the striker was just inches off tapping in, but aside from that play, I really felt like the game was largely a struggle for him.

Zinchenko’s alleged weakness is his defending, but Tierney’s been as bad as I’ve ever seen him off the ball of late. I’ll give some examples below. Zinchenko meanwhile has gotten some flak for Liverpool’s equalizer, but personally I saw that Trent nutmeg as a bit lucky and very skillful, and think Ben White’s defending at the back post could be more to blame (as well as Firminho turning into a world-class striker when he plays Arsenal).

Turning to Tierney, the supposed defender in the pairing of our two left backs, I’ve been extremely disappointed by his work at his back post the past 95 minutes he’s played (give or take).

Remember, KT came on with just a few minutes left against Liverpool. And, frankly, he’s lucky he didn’t give up as many as two goals. (Disclosure: I love Tierney. Who wouldn’t? So don’t make this about that, it’s just analysis.)

First up, this Salah chance happened very quickly after Tierney came on. Gakpo’s making a good run to pull Gabriel toward the near post, Holding is occupied by Darwin, but look at Tierney: He never got goal side. Salah burns him, and luckily for our Scotsman, the pass was a hair heavy and Salah could only get a toe to it and send it over the goal.

Next up: Konate’s near winner. This is arguably the worst one to me. It’s squeaky bum time, Liverpool are doing a bit of a number on our back line. Tierney gets caught with his mind completely off his man and Konate makes an insanely easy unmarked run to hammer this one home. Ramsdale went full Superman here and made the save. The chance was later rated at 0.56 xG, or 0.79 shot-on-target xG. An absolute gimme.

Moving on to West Ham. I put Jarrod Bowen’s chance largely on Tierney (Ramsdale should’ve done better as well). The ball comes into the danger area, but it’s cleared out, at which point Tierney begins trotting forward. West Ham quickly recover and Bowen, seeing his marker again isn’t paying attention, runs in behind. On another angle, you can see the instant Tierney realized he’d been burned and sprints back, but he’s far too late: Goal, advantage lost.

That was three crucial lapses in about 60 minutes on the pitch, disappointing to say the least.

So what can Arsenal do?

The last two points in particular in mind, Arteta has a big decision to make. He’s not the manager who will reconfigure his full XI to account for an injury, or at least he hasn’t been lately.

This feels like a situation where Pep Guardiola would do something seemingly crazy, like play five center backs or three strikers (all exaggeration, but not far off, right?)

If Saliba remains out but Zinchenko returns, there are at least a couple of options for Arteta where he could change his latest lineup without massive effects to shape. One option would be to go Holding off, Jorginho on, like below.

Rolling out this lineup against a side like City presents two personnel challenges to me: Can Jorginho do enough against the better midfields in the league? Can Partey defend someone like Jack Grealish out wide, and can he provide any attacking help?

I don’t love that second set of questions, to be honest. Partey is likely to have little, if any, chemistry with the attacking options out front like White. So maybe you could try this?

A straight swap to return White to right back would make you feel a lot better about the right-hand side in attack, and you’d feel much better about White going toe to toe with Grealish. But what about the big guy down the middle, or Alexander Isak…do you really want to see Partey try and defend them? Do you trust him to hold the line effectively and not play attackers onside by mistake? I think it’s an absolutely massive question, and while he’d add much better passing to the buildup, defending will be crucial.

I don’t expect Zinchenko to miss Southampton, unless Arteta is really playing it safe, but for the record: If he does, I think Jakub Kiwior should get his shot. Tierney has struggled so much, and while Kiwior does have room to grow, my film study on him showed a player who could defend wide and progress the ball with a great deal of skill. Among other benefits, he’s used to playing left center-back in a back three for Spezia, and spent an entire season at DM, meaning tucking in next to our 6 would feel relatively natural. And I’ve watched him defend Khvicha Kvaratskhelia one-on-one, so I think he would be up to it.

While I’m taking about our newest player: Watch his cameo against Liverpool one more time…he was better than you think.

***

Obviously, the simplest option is the return of William Saliba, and there are some murmurs that Arsenal are readying him specifically for the Manchester City match, now just nine days away. In a vacuum you wouldn’t feel awful rotating him out against the Saints at home anyway.

What would I do? I’d actually use the same XI from kickoff Friday, and use the game as a chance to restore confidence. Whether it’s going poorly or well, I’d try Jorgi for Holdini later on in the game, as well as a bit during training, to suss out how the players deal with it.

The title is not lost, and even a draw against City would cover a lot of ground on the road to the trophy. But if playing the same lineup even against lower-half sides means dropping points, it may be time for Arteta to deviate a bit.

As always, the big question remains, “Will he?”