“Uncharacteristic blip from Arsenal. This team has dropped points from winning positions in three of their last five Premier League matches.”
Do you really want to pretend that pressure is not a thing ever? Like come on Scott you’re smarter than that.
that's THE POINT. This is EXACTLY when it happens right mancrunch time, pressure mounting, margins tight. It's not random bad luck.
That’s not a blip bro that’s when choking happens. Science shows elite athletes perform significantly worse in playoffs and high-stakes moments. A 33-season NBA study found the best players had the biggest drop-offs under elimination pressure. MLB pitchers, NBA free throw shooters, professional tennis players I know it’s not soccer but all make measurably more mistakes when it matters most. Arsenal dropping points from winning positions in 3 of 5 matches during a title race isn’t bad luck or a statistical outlier. It’s documented pressure-induced collapse that happens to elite performers across every sport. This is the pattern, not the exception.
I spent decades working with and coaching elite athletes in sports psychology among other things. There very much is, at the elite level, a significant aspect of performance that comes down to self-belief. For whatever reason, Arsenal, collectively, needs to reset their mentality. They have to believe in themselves and back themselves to win. Not just as a team, but as individuals. When I was working with elite rugby players, and elite rugby teams, this was a conversation we had each week. It started in the video room. When they understood how the team they were about to face played, they would develop their counter plan and everybody would buy in. first the team got on the same page, then each player had to get right in his own head about his responsibility and self-belief. Now rugby is not football, but there are a LOT of similarities. For each player, in each situation, it comes down to decision making. When doubt creeps in, those decisions go against you. Take Martinelli missing that sitter from 2 feet out. That is self-belief. Why does Noni shit the bed in front of goal? Self-belief. Why did Eze miss the target completely at the end of the game? Self-belief. Same for Rice, who absolutely should have scored the last two games. No self-belief. Then you have players starting to doubt each other. Gabriel HAS to let Raya catch that ball. Has to. But he did not trust Raya right then did he? So when you don't trust yourself, and then you don't trust your teammates, you give up goals in games against teams that should never score. If I were invited to assist an elite team achieve a title, I would start with a sports psychology intervention player by player and then expand that conversation to the team in that order. What will Arteta do? Who knows. I would bet that at this moment he does not trust himself to make the right decisions because his self-belief is shaken too.
I appreciate your data led approach. However, statistical analysis and prediction from that analysis is based on an important premise-that the underlying conditions are unchanged. For example, I think we can all agree that any prediction model based on retrospective data analysis would be rendered moot if Rice, Saka, Saliba, Gabriel, and Raya all suffered season ending injuries in training tomorrow. Any model of Arsenal’s performance would presume the availability of all or at least most of those players. Psychology is probably the most important and yet unmeasurable performance factor in elite sports. Champions have the mentality to perform at the highest level despite intense, crushing pressure. If our players’ performances are being negatively affected by pressure than the underlying conditions of any predictive model has been changed. Psychology may be unmeasurable but neither can it be ignored.
“Uncharacteristic blip from Arsenal. This team has dropped points from winning positions in three of their last five Premier League matches.”
Do you really want to pretend that pressure is not a thing ever? Like come on Scott you’re smarter than that.
that's THE POINT. This is EXACTLY when it happens right mancrunch time, pressure mounting, margins tight. It's not random bad luck.
That’s not a blip bro that’s when choking happens. Science shows elite athletes perform significantly worse in playoffs and high-stakes moments. A 33-season NBA study found the best players had the biggest drop-offs under elimination pressure. MLB pitchers, NBA free throw shooters, professional tennis players I know it’s not soccer but all make measurably more mistakes when it matters most. Arsenal dropping points from winning positions in 3 of 5 matches during a title race isn’t bad luck or a statistical outlier. It’s documented pressure-induced collapse that happens to elite performers across every sport. This is the pattern, not the exception.
I spent decades working with and coaching elite athletes in sports psychology among other things. There very much is, at the elite level, a significant aspect of performance that comes down to self-belief. For whatever reason, Arsenal, collectively, needs to reset their mentality. They have to believe in themselves and back themselves to win. Not just as a team, but as individuals. When I was working with elite rugby players, and elite rugby teams, this was a conversation we had each week. It started in the video room. When they understood how the team they were about to face played, they would develop their counter plan and everybody would buy in. first the team got on the same page, then each player had to get right in his own head about his responsibility and self-belief. Now rugby is not football, but there are a LOT of similarities. For each player, in each situation, it comes down to decision making. When doubt creeps in, those decisions go against you. Take Martinelli missing that sitter from 2 feet out. That is self-belief. Why does Noni shit the bed in front of goal? Self-belief. Why did Eze miss the target completely at the end of the game? Self-belief. Same for Rice, who absolutely should have scored the last two games. No self-belief. Then you have players starting to doubt each other. Gabriel HAS to let Raya catch that ball. Has to. But he did not trust Raya right then did he? So when you don't trust yourself, and then you don't trust your teammates, you give up goals in games against teams that should never score. If I were invited to assist an elite team achieve a title, I would start with a sports psychology intervention player by player and then expand that conversation to the team in that order. What will Arteta do? Who knows. I would bet that at this moment he does not trust himself to make the right decisions because his self-belief is shaken too.
I appreciate your data led approach. However, statistical analysis and prediction from that analysis is based on an important premise-that the underlying conditions are unchanged. For example, I think we can all agree that any prediction model based on retrospective data analysis would be rendered moot if Rice, Saka, Saliba, Gabriel, and Raya all suffered season ending injuries in training tomorrow. Any model of Arsenal’s performance would presume the availability of all or at least most of those players. Psychology is probably the most important and yet unmeasurable performance factor in elite sports. Champions have the mentality to perform at the highest level despite intense, crushing pressure. If our players’ performances are being negatively affected by pressure than the underlying conditions of any predictive model has been changed. Psychology may be unmeasurable but neither can it be ignored.