Arsenal 1-1 Brighton: The Debrief

It has taken a while to cool down from the emotions of this match to feel the need to take a look at things. It still feels pretty raw and unjust and a decision by the referee massively swung the game.

I will look at things beyond that but it is hard to ignore that factor.

Lets get into it.

Arsenal 1-1 Brighton: The Graphics

Arsenal 1-1 Brighton: The Debrief

80% - Arsenal’s expected win probability in the 48th minute up 1-0 at home over Brighton.

0.7 - The total goal swing in the favor of Brighton because of the red card. Arsenal lost 0.28 goals to be scored down a man and Brighton gained 0.43 goals scored be up a man.

59% - Arsenal’s win probability after the red card, a drop of 21% points (26% drop)

There is no other way to start than by looking at the major moment that swung the match, with the decision to give Declan Rice a second yellow for delaying the restart.

By the letter of the law this is a yellow card offense, from the laws of the game:

If, when a free kick is taken, an opponent is closer to the ball than the required distance, the kick is retaken unless the advantage can be applied; but if a player takes a free kick quickly and an opponent who is less than 9.15 m (10 yds) from the ball intercepts it, the referee allows play to continue. However, an opponent who deliberately prevents a free kick being taken quickly must be cautioned for delaying the restart of play.

Rice does ever so slightly nudge the ball away after it has been kicked at him walking away, maybe he shouldn’t do this knowing he is on a yellow card already and there isn’t much threat from Brighton taking this free kick quickly in the corner of the field in their own half.

Looking at the video he knows what he is potentially doing moving the ball away, maybe not exactly how close Joël Veltman is here taking the kick but it is something that you see all the time from players and part of the gamesmanship. Veltman looks like he knows exactly what he is doing as well, looking to not really gain an advantage playing it quickly but to try and game the referee into this sort of decision.

There is a question of is this an actual good freekick as well. From the laws again:

All free kicks are taken from the place where the offence occurred…The ball must be stationary and the kicker must not touch the ball again until it has touched another player.

This free kick is not taken at the spot of the foul, it is a good 6-8 yards further up pitch and it has never stopped rolling after being kicked into Rice, maybe it would have if Rice doesn’t touch after it is kicked at him, but looking at the video when Veltman starts his kick and before Rice has knocked it away the ball was never stationary.

The only time in the situation where the criteria is met for the free kick to legally be taken is the initial kick forward, when Veltman gets up. Common sense says his intent was not to play it but technically that could have been him playing it and restarting.

I think that is the key point, using common sense is best. A referee can do many things that are technically correct but the norms of the game have evolved to where not every single action that can be punished must be punished.

Decisions will be made to the best of the referee's ability according to the Laws of the Game and the 'spirit of the game' and will be based on the opinion of the referee who has the discretion to take appropriate action within the framework of the Laws of the Game.

Being a referee is a tough job, I think in this situation the referee acted in a way that was technically correct in one sense, ignoring other issues about the free kick that would have made this a situation where it was not valid. The best course of action here would have almost certainly have been to calm the situation down, warn the players and regain control of the match.

I think the situation that was similar in that cards could have been given was handled well by Michael Oliver the previous match week against Aston Villa.

This is a situation that can warrant yellow cards but Oliver took his time and cooled down the situation and regained control.

It is unfortunate in this situation that this wasn’t the path taken. That is about all I have to say about this now and lets get into the actual match analysis now.

Before the red, Arsenal look pretty good

Stats before the red card

8 - Shots for Arsenal

3 - Shots for Brighton

1.0 - Expected goals for Arsenal, with 2 big chances (one might have been called back for offside)

0.16 - Expected goals for Brighton, with 0 big chances

21 - Touches in the box for Arsenal

7 - Touches in the box for Brighton

7 - High starts for Arsenal winning the ball high up the pitch

5 - High starts for Brighton

58% - Field tilt for Arsenal

The opening period for Arsenal wasn’t the greatest 48 minutes Arsenal had ever played but it was still good, and it might have been the best overall half that Arsenal have had this season so far. Arsenal were creating clear openings and getting behind the high and aggressive line of Brighton.

The play was still a little sloppy and the execution was not perfect but for Brighton the warning signs would have been there that Arsenal were very dangerous and them scoring multiple times was a real possibility.

The balance of the team still looks off here with 45% of the attacks coming down the right compared 33% down the left-hand side. Arsenal also had the situation here where Ben White played a very reserved match with just 7 touches in the attacking third of the pitch leaving Saka and Odegaard missing the third side of their triangle that has been so effective.

Arsenal bunker well, and create enough to have had a chance to win

Stats after the red card

3 - Shots for Arsenal

19 - Shots for Brighton

0.8 - Expected goals for Arsenal, with 2 big chances

1.8 - Expected goals for Brighton, with 3 big chances

9 - Touches in the box for Arsenal

25 - Touches in the box for Brighton

2 - High starts for Arsenal winning the ball high up the pitch

3 - High starts for Brighton

13% - Field tilt for Arsenal

After the red card, Arsenal ceded possession to Brighton looking to defend and counter. For the most part Arsenal did well, keeping Brighton from creating too many clear scoring chances from all of their possession while still being able to carve out a couple chances of their own.

Inside the final third, Arsenal did a really good job of forcing Brighton into the dreaded horseshoe passing pattern. They worked the ball around Arsenal’s defensive block but for the most part struggled to pass through or over the settled defense.

Brighton overall took a lot of shots in this match. This is the fist time in almost exactly 3 years where Arsenal have allowed 22 or more shots in a match. The last one coming August 28, 2021 against Manchester City where they gave up 25 shots, and they also gave up 22 shots to Chelsea in the match before.

Only getting a point at home hurts, losing Rice for a game will hurt but overall the team showed some flashes of positivity and will want to try and improve on their execution to make their spells of dominance result in goals. The first international break always comes at what feels like a poor time but hopefully Mikel Arteta can use the time to get Arsenal ready for the tough trips to face Tottenham, Atalanta and Manchester City back to back to back.