Arsenal 25/26 Schedule Analysis
Arsenal have a full schedule and play every team home and away, lets see how the sequencing looks
Ah schedule drop day!
It is always a fun one to wake up to for me and get a sense of what the next 10 months of my life will look like as we prepare for another season following Arsenal.
There are never any real surprises here, every team will play all of the other teams in the Premier League home and away between August and May. What is of interest is where the fixtures fall and what other matches are around them to see how the season could ebb and flow and where the chances are to go on runs and where the struggles could be.
Here is how the very packed calendar looks for Arsenal this season:
The first thing that really jumps out at you is that this is going to be another season where there are just no breaks for a team in a UEFA Competition.
If Arsenal advance in the League and FA Cups they would play every non international break weekend or midweek from August 30th through April 18th, with the exception of Christmas eve as things are currently scheduled.
It’s going to be another punishing season for the players and while I am not the biggest proponent of a large squad seeing this spelled out does really push home that the number needs to go up a bit from previous examples otherwise the dependance on luck is just too high.
After looking at everything I came to the conclusion that this is the right mix:
For Arsenal next year, I think you have a core that looks like this:
1 GK
4 Fullbacks
3 Center Backs (Arsenal have fullbacks that can play CB and CB that can play full back)
5 Midfielders
4 Wingers
2 Strikers
That is 19 players and given the versatility in the squad that has lots of coverage around each position should it be needed and offers the ability to mix and match for the opponent, manage injuries, and to rotate when needed.
If Arsenal can get to those numbers I think that they can survive the normal wear and tear that comes with a season and perhaps do a bit more rotation to target freshness for certain matches.
Let’s go month through month for Arsenal.
August:
Arsenal have three matches to keep off the season with full breaks between each which will be nice. August is tied for the second hardest month and features the 13th hardest, 36th hardest and the hardest matches of the season.
The big bogey here is the early trip to Anfield. If Arsenal needed any more incentive to make sure that the team was settled and strong before the transfer window closes this should help give that push.
The first match against Manchester United to kick things off away at Old Trafford also is a bit omniums given that this has never been an easy one, even when Manchester United have been at their worst.
Leeds are a bit of an unknown right now given they are freshly promoted but it looks like a bit of a nice breath catcher between the big away matches.
My target here is probably 6-7 points from these fixtures.
September:
As we leave summer, the Champions League returns and we have the first to matches of the League phase now to deal with plus the first match of the League Cup. This really kicks off the match every three to four days cadence that will be with us all season long.
This month has the same average difficulty as August but really is tougher given that each match comes off of short rest.
This month has the 29th hardest, 7th hardest, and 6th hardest matches of the Premier League season.
Manchester City (H) and Newcastle (A) back-to-back will be tough and with League Cup sandwiched between them that should be a full rotation special regardless of who the team draws.
This feels like it must be no less than 5 points picked up. I do not want to lose to City or Newcastle and give them a head-to-head edge this early in the season that would need to be caught up.
October:
October will bring cooler weather and a bit of a reprieve from the tough start of the season.
Arsenal will be in London for all of their matches in the Premier League here with away matches to West Ham and Fulham, plus Crystal Palace at home. These are not gimmies, but they are the midtable teams that you need to go accumulate points against to win a title.
These are the 21st hardest, 16th hardest and 24th hardest matches of the Premier League season and they should represent a very real chance to win 7-9 points.
November:
November looks like a winning time month. It is a full schedule again with four matches but this is the second easiest overall month of the season on paper.
This has the 23rd hardest, 37th hardest, 33rd hardest and 3rd hardest matches of the Premier League season.
The ELO ratings probably underrate the difficulty of Tottenham, especially with Thomas Frank at the helm but I am hopeful that they struggle again this coming season.
Having two newly promoted teams will hopefully present opportunities to keep the squad fresh and manage any niggles while still giving the team a chance to win 3 points.
This hopefully is 10+ points for Arsenal and a chance to hopefully to build momentum into the end of the first half of the season.
December:
December is always full, and this season is no different. There are 7 Premier League matches plus a Champions League round and a potential League Cup Quarter-Final to contend with.
One of the current silver linings for Arsenal is that they do not have to worry about losing players to the African Cup of Nations that kicks off in December (even if Thomas Partey re-signs, he will not be involved because Ghana did not qualify).
Boxing day falls on a Friday and it is hard to say for certain how the TV picks will make things work out but this does currently show that Arsenal could have a mid-week off on Christmas Eve.
Overall, the trickiest match of this bunch right now is a trip to Aston Villa and then a home match against them to book end the month. These are the 27th hardest, 5th hardest, 34th hardest, 14th hardest, 26th hardest and 18th hardest matches on the Premier League schedule for Arsenal.
I think that this looks like 12+ points as the target for the month.
January:
January has Arsenal finally playing all of the teams for the first time (weirdly we have Aston Villa a second time before we have played Bournemouth the first time) and starts the second half of the season.
Hopefully coming into this part of the season Arsenal are in the 40-45 point range and still strongly in position to advance in the Champions League.
Depending on advancement in the League Cup there is the potential that there is a break midweek this month but otherwise this will be another full calendar with 5 Premier League matches, 2 Champions League rounds, plus the start of the FA Cup.
Arsenal will have a huge midweek match where they host Liverpool and then have Manchester United at home between the Champions League round 7 and 8. For the latter hopefully Arsenal are in position again where they have already secured their spot into the knockout rounds and hopefully have clinched the top 8 finish to not have to stress out the players even further.
This is a tough month with the 11th hardest, 4th hardest, 12th hardest, 30th hardest and 25th hardest matches of the season.
This looks like a target of 9-10 points as the minimum expectations here.
February:
Arsenal finally might get a bit of a break in February.
We all would love long runs in the Cups, but it might not be the end of the world to not have the two-legged League Cup semi-final to deal with at the start of the month. It would also be nice to avoid the knockout playoff for the Champions League that could give two midweeks off for Arsenal, especially with those matches coming before the trip to Tottenham and hosting Chelsea.
This isn’t the hardest month of the year but it could become much tougher if the calendar fills up. It features the 38th hardest, 10th hardest, 17th hardest, and 15th hardest matches of the season for Arsenal.
I expect 9 points from this run as the minimum expectation.
March:
March is a pretty average difficulty month but it does have the Champions League round of 16 fixtures. Thankfully they are not around the toughest League fixtures of the season with Everton at home and Wolves away.
Ther is also the FA Cup 5th round that I would like Arsenal to still be in and potentially the League Cup final the same weekend as Wolves which I care much less about.
The month also ends with the last international break of the season.
This has the 9th hardest, 31st hardest, and 22 hardest matches of the season.
Ideally this is 3 of 3 for wins.
April:
The start of the run in is brutal for Arsenal.
April seems like it is always one of the toughest months of the season and this year it is shaping up as no different.
There are just 3 Premier League matches but they are some tricky ones and complicated by the potential for a Champions League quarter-final and maybe even a semi-final first leg.
Bournemouth at home between the legs of the quarter-final is no the hardest match the fixture computer could have given Arsenal.
Arsenal could also have a couple of matches with big title implications with Manchester City and Newcastle also on the schedule.
This is the hardest month on paper, with the 28th hardest, 2 hardest, and 19th hardest matches of the season.
To win the title it will probably take more but this would be 5 point minimum.
May:
The end of the season on paper at least looks manageable after a brutal April. Hopefully Arsenal can make it through that run with all of the things still to play for in the League, Champions League and maybe even the FA Cup.
On paper there is just one above average difficulty match and that is the final one against Crystal Palace who hopefully will be safely in midtable again and on the beach for that.
This has the 32nd hardest, the 20th hardest, 35th hardest, and 8th hardest matches of the season.
It is hard to say for certain, but this could be another 4 for 4 but the minimum should be 10 points earned here.
Final thoughts
The schedule is the schedule, and it does generally even out over the season. It kind of sucks that Arsenal have back-to-back months that will test the team and could put them in a position where they are chasing the leaders all season long. It also presents and opportunity to pick up points on direct rivals and get the hard matches out of the way with the team freshest and ready to go.
The biggest thing for me is that the matches following Champions League matches are mostly manageable. The toughest ones come early where Arsenal face City on the back of round 1 and then Chelsea on the back of round 5. Later in the season there is also the possibility of facing City on the back of the second leg of the quarter final.
Looking at my minimum expectations it puts Arsenal on 82 points and that is not likely to be enough to win the title, so if they will do it, they will need to find a few more wins than I am expecting.
Every schedule drop day really just leaves me looking forward to another season of following the Arsenal.
I like to take it one game at a time. We wanted to be a big team that plays every 3 days, now we are!