Arsenal are not a bad attacking team
The extremes and absolutes in the modern ways that we have discussions are distorting the picture and it sucks.
I have been sitting back a bit watching the narrative on if Arsenal are too conservative and cannot produce enough in attack percolate a bit before doing too much commentary. I decided to make that one of the main focuses of the Podcast this week and I still have a bit more that I want to explore on this.
I do think that the vast majority of this specific frustration is a symptom of the larger frustration that Arsenal have not won a Premier League or Champions League in the last three seasons when they have moved to become one of the strongest teams in the World under Mikel Arteta.
For me there are some areas at the margins that you can quibble with on Arsenal’s attacking performances (and I have) but largely the critiques fall flat for me and the view that this is a systemic issue feels like a reach.
Among “Big 5” League teams Arsenal have been a top 20 (out of 96 teams) in each of the last three seasons. This has also been some of the best returns that any Arsenal team has produced in their history.
Last season was the worst and they still ranked 19th in goals scored per match, with 1.8 goals per match, ranking 17th for goals scored in a Premier League season for Arsenal
2023/24 Arsenal ranked 7th, with 2.3 goals per match, ranking 1st for goals scored in a Premier League season for Arsenal
2022/23 Arsenal ranked 5th, with 2.2 goals per match, ranking 2nd for goals scored in a Premier League season for Arsenal
Overall, Arsenal rank 6th in goals scored combined from 2022-23 through 2024-25 among teams in the Big 5 Leagues
Last season’s goal tally was not good enough for the aspirations that Arsenal held and it was a major factor in why the team had a disappointing 74 points, but it is pretty clear to draw a line from this to the injuries in the attack as a major explanatory factor. It is positive as well that it seems that this is clearly a lesson that the club has learned from spending significant money to add three attackers (with just Raheem Sterling going out) this summer to learn from that lesson.
Looking at things from a total goals perspective doesn’t support the argument that the team is not a good attacking team but maybe that aggregation hides something important with the distribution of goals scored.
Here is what it looks like for Arsenal compared to Manchester City and Liverpool from 2022-23 through the first five matches played in 2025-26.
Arsenal have had more matches with 0 or 1 goal scored compared to their rivals with 37.8% of Arsenal’s matches compared with 35.3% for Manchester City and just 31.9% for Liverpool.
Here is how it looks compared to the teams that have ranked in the top 25, top 15 and top 10 for goals scored.
Against this group as the comparison Arsenal have basically matched the performances of the other teams in the top 15 scores here and done better than the top 25. They lag behind the “Elite” attacking teams having more matches with 0 or 1 goal scored than these teams have done on average (37.8% for Arsenal compared to 33.7% for the top 10 teams in goals scored).
Arsenal’s goals scored puts them into this elite group (6th), but they have had a very different skew compared to these teams, looking much more like a team that is more of a good attack than an elite attack.
It is fair to say that the matches that Arsenal have failed to score or have only scored one goal have been painful for them and in general this is a situation that is hard to win points from.
Since the 2022/23 season there have been 6,640 Big 5 League matches where teams have scored 0 or 1 goals, and they have averaged 0.72 points per match. Restricting this to the Top 25 teams in goals scored (proxy for good teams) that improves to 1,147 points in 1,190 matches played for 0.96 points per match.
Arsenal have been significantly better than average at winning points from these matches with 1.27 points per match (second to Barcelona who have a ridiculous 1.8 ppm) but this is still a situation where having fewer of these lower scoring matches would go a long way for Arsenal.
The last major area that seems to be a stick to beat Arsenal with is the open play attacking numbers.
Just today, the Sky Sports Premier League twitter account posted this graphic with this comment accompanying it “📊🧐”:
I am glad that there is more mainstream coverage that is separating open play and set play (and penalty) chance creation because they do highlight the different strengths of teams. It does seem like much of the reason we are seeing this now and why this is a focus comes with the ability to stick the knife into Arsenal.
Maybe it is a bit of defensiveness on my part, but I do have the sort of feeling that much of this arises because Arsenal over the last few years have developed into one of the strongest teams at generating attack from set plays and this is a way to discount that and capitalize on the overall angst within the Arsenal fanbase.
For example, with the Sky Sports graphic, there isn’t anything factually wrong with it, but we also aren’t getting ones like this even with Liverpool also seeing a large decline in their open play attacking numbers at the start of this season.
Enough media criticism and let’s actually talk about the open play numbers. It is pretty simple to say that the numbers right now are not good enough and that if they stay at this level the season will not go how we want it to go. I also don’t think that this is where Arsenal will realistically finish this season at this level of production.
Here is how things look with this season’s number plus the last three seasons in the Premier League:
In 2022/23 and 2023/24 Arsenal were among the strongest teams at creating chances from open play, last season (for all the reasons we are all aware of) they dropped back from among the best to being just above average.
I have said this previously and I am going to repeat it here:
I care about Arsenal’s ability to create chances from open play, but I do come about it from a more holistic view looking a part of the team’s ability to create chances and also how it compares to what the team has allowed.
We always want more here (and I do think that will come) but it’s not something I am worried about yet because it is just 5 matches into the season.
The early part of the season here for Arsenal has been a run of tough matches that would not be representative of the level the overall. If we are getting into the 8-12 matches played range and the open play numbers are still at this level, I am going to have lots of concern, and it will probably be just one of many problems the team is having.
The next five matches in the Premier League for Arsenal are Newcastle, West Ham, Fulham, Crystal Palace, Burnley, and Sunderland, this will be one of the softer five match runs of the season and if Arsenal are not on the above average side of the open play xG after this, I will really start having concern about how the attack looks.
For now, I have patience and a wait and see attitude.
There is also some weirdness happening right now in the Premier League where League wide the open play xG numbers have dropped significantly where it is down 35% from what it has been the previous years.
2022/23: 1.02
2023/24: 1.19
2024/25: 1.1
2025/26: 0.72
Wrapping things up
If you want to say that Arsenal are not the best attacking team, I think that would be a fair statement backed up by the data and watching different teams in the top leagues over the last few years.
What is not fair, and what too often happens is that not being the best is conflated with being poor, but not being the best is clearly not the same as being a bad attacking team or even a team that struggles to score.
As a fanbase it is just a tough time and every little item that isn’t perfect is an opportunity to fight. This is something that I talked about in the summertime as a worry I had for the coming season, and it has played out unfortunately like I had expected.
I didn’t know exactly what it would be but if there was anything short of perfection there was absolutely going to be something that would be picked up as the problem. The disappointing thing is that it feels like even when there are reasonable things to critique because the battle lines are so dug in, everyone feels like every argument has to win and that conceding an inch means losing entirely.
The discussion around the attack is just this latest battle ground but it will be just one of many as we go through this season.
Those who say Arsenal are not a good attacking team play too much FIFA on XBox and have not watched Arsenal play football.