Frustration in the fanbase is bubbling just under the surface

The kumbaya days of 22/23 are long gone, is it fair that people are feeling this way?

The frustration and anger.

That was the major reactions online that came across my social media bubble in the wake of Arsenal losing a preseason match to Tottenham in Hong Kong.

I think logically people know that a preseason match really doesn’t matter all that much but given the opposition and the frustration that is just under the surface it is the latest event where it is bubbling up. It wasn’t the greatest performance from Arsenal, but neither was it as dreadful as the reaction would lead you to believe.

Tottenham scored from near the halfway line off a midfield turnover (that very well could have been a foul) and hit the post directly from two corners (there was a pretty big chance that fell to Richalison from the second of those but in the event data went down as a handball/no shot situation).

Arsenal didn’t create enough clear chances in the match but the overall play was just totally fine for a preseason friendly and I am not ready to go too deep reading into it. There was some good stuff, there were things that needed to be cleaned up, there was another 90 minutes into the players legs. It was not a radical departure from last season and that can be frustrating but then again this a team we are going to be playing this season and we could be keeping those tweaks closer to the chest.

The actual incident or event that is causing frustration and overreaction is basically irrelevant and just a symptom of the larger building of anger and frustration.

You could see this same phenomenon at the start of the summer where there was loud displeasure and outrage that Arsenal were not moving fast enough in the transfer market. People online were seeing teams in different situations (the Club World Cup a major factor) make signings early and worry that even though there was still two months left in the window that Arsenal were being left behind.

We are a month later and Arsenal have signed six players and have gone a long way towards addressing the major needs of the squad. It isn’t a perfect window if it ended today but with a month to go the major lifting has been done.

This hasn’t calmed any nerves or soothed any of the issues. That is because I believe the feelings actually showing up are not related to what is being talked about but rather something deeper.

This is something that we will probably see all season and every bump in the road or sign of things not going absolutely perfect will see a swell of negativity surface.

Arsenal have finished in second place three seasons running and how the majority of the fanbase feels after those has evolved over those years from excitement and hope, to feeling like it is our time, to worry that this very good team won’t win what it could or should have.

This last season the second-place finish felt like a major disappointment, the season felt like it never got going with frustration with the recruitment, the red cards that were major factors in dropped points and that was compounded with injuries to key players.

I can understand this sentiment and I do share the feelings of disappointment on coming so close and missing out. For a club like Arsenal that is rich but not the richest in their league, they generally need most of the things to break their way to win one of those big trophies on top of building a very good squad and it has been the case where it was nearly the case twice and very much not the case the third time.

The expectations that Arsenal should be wining something aren’t out of line. I took a deeper look into things 18 months ago and at that point Arsenal under Arteta were not underperforming the overall historical output.

There has been another two seasons without winning a trophy and that changes things from not really underperforming to, yeah this is below the norm for the history of the club on average. Arsenal have gone longer without trophies because they tend to be won in bunches but it is starting to get up there.

Arsenal have had trophy dry spells of 16 seasons, 8 seasons (the Wenger trophy drought), and 7 seasons twice. The current season would be the start of 6th season and with 4 trophies up for grabs it would be nice to win something and end this fallow period but especially one of the big ones.

I am realistic in understanding that this is not the most likely outcome still for the season. Arsenal are not the outright favorite in any of the competitions that they are in this season.

For the FA Cup the betting odds at this stage are at 6/1 which is roughly 14%.

For the League Cup the betting odds are lower than the FA Cup (I wonder if they imagine the team taking it less seriously?) at 8/1 which is roughly 11%.

For the Premier League things are better with Arsenal just behind Liverpool with odds at 9/4 to 5/2 which is roughly 28-31%. I ran my first simulation this morning and it matches that expectation of the betting odds.

For the biggest prize of all the Champions League Arsenal are viewed as one of the front runners with the fifth highest chance but they are still 8/1 which is roughly 11%.

Given these odds it is still just 50/50 (technically 52/48 but close enough) that Arsenal win a trophy this season as the baseline cold analytical baseline.

I still want to see this team win a trophy, and I know that is the ultimate goal of why we go through this. I am also aware that not winning while painful hasn’t been some massive shortcoming or failure of the team/coach. It has only been before the last two seasons where that outcome was starting from a 50/50 shot and not the most likely outcome at the start of the season. This comes back to a mantra I have, Trophies are the goal, but they are not a good measure of success.

Before every season I set out measurable performance metrics that I want to see from the team to be able to judge if the team is meeting my expectations, last season was the first one where the team failed to hit them. I will write this up next week and publish it but I already know that I am going to set the bar high again because I strongly believe that this is one of the most talented teams in the world.

This is going to be my pre-committed view on how I will judge the team over the course of the season. I will do my best to keep this focus and to try and keep the other noise outside from seeping in on this as we go through the season. I can’t control what happens out there but if you want to ride with me this is what you will get.