Arsenal, Arteta, Ayto and the January window
What Arsenal could have done, why they didn't, and what they must do next
No number of eyeball emojis could have willed something into happening this January.
And despite the rhetoric that seemed to proliferate on social media every time Mikel Arteta took the podium every three or four days, the Arsenal manager was remarkably consistent throughout the month of January:
Are Arsenal short? Absolutely. They intentionally went into the season with six attackers, a good number. Two are now under long-term injury. That’s short. But the club is not interested in stopgaps or emergency players who would be cast aside the moment even one of those two returned.
And despite some of the stronger conspiracy theories out there that Arteta was holding his tongue here in a bid to not upset his KSE overlords (I’m not sure what he really has to fear there, as it would not be hard for him to find new employment), such thoughts come from the same fanbase who seek a strong Sporting Director to keep Arteta from consolidating too much power. So is Arteta the dictator who gets his guy no matter what, or is he the manager at the mercy of his recruitment team? Both cannot be true.
Such thoughts seem to proliferate in seasons like the one Arsenal are currently weathering, where things simply have not gone to plan. Multiple key players have been lost to months-long injuries, which has made the football less sexy. City have been bad, and a club more in Arsenal’s orbit are running away with the league. The guys who did transfer in after a quiet-by-design window have struggled with injury. And to hear some people describe it, Arsenal ownership couldn’t have scripted it any better.
When the window slammed shut Monday without an Arsenal move, more of the same theories again cropped up: KSE are abandoning the team, writing off the season, refusing to back the manager. They’re neglecting the players, and throwing them to the wolves. And of course, everyone’s favorite, which is that ownership just wants to be in the frame, but they don’t care if they actually win.
Perhaps there is some truth to the idea that ownership feels that some causes, such as the Premier League title race, are a bit too unattainable to pursue in the fullest sense, we may never know the answer to that. But the question of whether the resources were out there and attainable enough to close the gap with Liverpool is a bit simpler to address. So why not do our best here to take a look at some of the things Arsenal could have done:
Option 1: Permanent signing
This is undoubtedly the favored child of not only ownership and fans, but also of Mikel Arteta. Coaching a player requires time and effort, it’s an investment that you hate to give up on, particularly if you’re seeing progress.
From the financial standpoint, you’re pumping money into an asset. Sure, that asset may help you win some higher prize than otherwise if just on a loan, but ideally you can also see those gains in future seasons. And as Spurs’ £10m Mathys Tel loan shows, even rentals don’t really come cheap.
Arsenal’s permanent signing checklist is pretty straightforward at this point. The player has to be a cultural fit for the club. They have to be a financial fit, meaning the club will not go out over its skis either on the fee or the wages. The player should fit the project window of the club, meaning he should either contribute to the drive for titles now, should be someone they could mold into a piece for seasons in the near-future, or both. For an attacker, this player simply would have to be able to push for minutes pretty much right away.
Looking at players who moved this window, there were some talented guys in the attacking phase who switched clubs.
Realistically, you need to get up to at least number 7 (Elye Wahi) before you have any interest at all in a signing here. Wahi has been linked with Arsenal before and is just 22, but doesn’t move the needle enough as a prospect or as a current rotational player to make this jump now.
Santi Gimenez is another interesting name, but I feel much better about him in Italy than England, due in large part to his so-so performances for Mexico, his limited physical profile and his lack of top-end experience. He’s probably someone you’d profile as a contributor for a top-end club rather than a starting striker.
Galeno is someone you’d maybe take a punt on, but €50m is pretty rich. Henrique couldn’t catch on in Spain and is going straight from Brazil to Russia after a goal involvement per four matches in about 100 games in Brazil, which doesn’t wow anyone.
Kvara is where things start to heat up. His name has been on the lips of Arsenal fans for a few years, as a dribblier goalscoring option for the wing. The deal with PSG represents completely fine pricing, and the wages are entirely reasonable. But Arsenal have never even been linked, why could that be?
A couple of theories: One thing that could concern personnel evaluators is that Kvara’s dribbling has been getting progressively worse since his breakout two seasons ago, and in this current campaign he’s about average for volume of dribbles, and in the bottom six percent for success rate. Yes, that says bottom six percent. Now imagine that against a Premier League low block.
The other issue is that Kvara has poor shot selection. At Napoli he let it fly 3.64 times per 90, but with an average value of 0.08 xG per shot. In the Premier League that would be in the bottom quarter of attacking players, and again this is without the added obstacle of extra bodies in the box, given Arsenal make about 50% more touches in the box than Napoli.
One more thing that may have thwarted the deal entirely this month was PSG’s ongoing contact with the player. PSG had terms agreed with him from the summer, but Napoli didn’t budge. It’s quite possible that Kvara had, at that point, completely closed off to any other opportunity. With Paris’s stature as a city, it’s not outside the realm of possibilities that he just … wants to live in Paris. Can’t do anything about that.
The next name here is Omar Marmoush. The Egyptian put up silly numbers as part of Frankfurt’s attack, particularly over the first half of this season. But anyone wanting him was quickly met with a major obstacle: He wanted Manchester City above all else.
City’s bet on Marmoush was soon revealed to be a major one, with a €75m fee that made him joint-27th-most expensive among attackers all-time, more expensive than Kvara or Kai Havertz. For a guy who is already 25 and has scored more than 10 goals twice (2x) in his career. That’s risky! And then there are his wages.
Ohhhhhhhh, so that’s why he wanted City. The low end of this range is £256,000 per week, a top-15 wage in the Premier League. You can watch the tape and be seduced by the player, but the argument that this is a wage in keeping with what players like Jack Grealish or Phil Foden are paid is dubious at best. There would be little fiscal sense in making this deal for Arsenal. This is what they paid for Declan Rice.
And with that, what a segue we have into Jhon Durán, whose move to Saudi Arabia cost Al-Nassr £64 million in fees alone. That’s more than £5 million per Premier League goal he’s scored to date.
Durán is another you could argue is sexy on film, scoring his banger goals immediately coming off the bench for Aston Villa. But let me walk you through a mental exercise: You’re running a mid-table PL club with a 29-year-old striker whose best season totaled 19 league goals. Your 21-year-old second fiddle has scored 12 times in 13.9 90s worth of minutes, has interest from clubs such as PSG and wants a bigger role. Whom do you sell?
Now, what could possibly move you to say the 21-year-old? Snap out of the exercise…Do you want that 21-year-old at Arsenal? How about for £64 million, and at the cost of signing any other striker for a few years? Didn’t think so.
Ollie
Of course, there’s the other guy in that thought experiment. Arsenal did pursue Ollie Watkins, with reports at first claiming they’d offered £60 million, but soon correcting to say they’d really offered £40 million while Villa held out for 60. Arsenal did not take Villa up on that offer, but why not?
As Scott covered in our digital pages, Watkins very likely would have bolstered the Arsenal squad on offer for what’s left of the season.
His goal output has been good at Villa going on two or three seasons, with last campaign’s output especially good. This season his xG numbers have been great, while his finishing (something he’s roughly average at for his career) has sputtered. But Ollie would give Arsenal another credible threat at center-forward, creating more opportunities for Kai Havertz to find rest. Importantly, he would also provide a Premier League-proven option for Mikel Arteta to rely on during the run-in, a well-rounded player overall, and someone who could take over for tired or injured legs if the worst did happen.
But the price here is a significant stumbling block. At £60 million, Watkins would command a price that only two other strikers have ever traded for at 29 or older: Harry Kane and Cristiano Ronaldo. Those players had 12 (Ronaldo) and 9 (Kane) top-tier, 15-goal seasons at the time they were sold. Watkins? He’s done that twice, though he’s on his way to number three right now.
The next player on this list, for what it’s worth, is Diego Costa, who scored 20 PL goals as a 28-year-old for Chelsea in the 16-17 season and was sold to Atletico Madrid for £50 million. He followed that season up with 12 goals…in four seasons.
That’s not to say Watkins is going to fall off the age cliff next season, but that’s the kind of thing that can happen at this age, and why this sort of deal is considered such a risk. It happened to Laca, and it happened to Auba (though at 31 instead of 30). Simply put: For a player at this age to be priced among Ronaldo and Kane, he needs to have a legacy among Ronaldo and Kane. Watkins, for all his likability, does not.
There is absolutely a chance that Watkins goes the way of Jamie Vardy or Chris Wood, delivering goals well into his 30s, but those players are far less common than Wayne Rooneys and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyangs, who lost effectiveness as they aged. The pressure would be on Watkins to deliver Arsenal a title this season or next, when you’d probably challenge the idea of him being a title-winning type of player to begin with. Because he would be on the books for, you’d expect, no less than 3.5 seasons from signing, meaning Arsenal would be attached to him at an annual value around £25 million (higher than Gabriel Jesus) through 2028, with no chance of selling him on if he declined at all.
Were there other players for sale on the market? It’s impossible to say. Others Arsenal have been linked with — the likes of Šeško or Gyökeres — were never positioned as being available for an acquisition, and both are certainly still key to their current clubs’ campaigns. Red Bull Leipzig certainly could not be forced into a sale, and while social media is rampant with “everyone has a price” talk, the point at which a club of any size is forced to say yes and the point at which these deals become indefensible are usually pretty close together.
Option 2: Loans
With Durán off to the Middle East and Watkins staying in Birmingham, this started to emerge as the most likely option. And there were serviceable names on the loan market:
Not pictured here: Evan Ferguson, Marcus Rashford, Marco Asensio
So why didn’t Arsenal make a move here? It’s a few different things all at once.
A big worry in the social media space today has been that Arsenal simply are asking too much of the five players they have who can play an attacking position - Martinelli, Havertz, Trossard, Sterling, Nwaneri. If one picks up any sort of significant injury, therefore, it all falls apart. And that’s without factoring in whether Bukayo Saka is actually coming back.
That’s fair enough. But while fans may like the idea of one more senior player who never graces the pitch prior to the 80th minute of a 3-0 game, that idea did not seem to appeal as much to Arteta, who is notorious for sticking with his guys above all else. And if the worst did happen, and Kai Havertz did pop a hamstring, is there really a single name on the above list you’d trust to keep Arsenal competitive in the league or Champions League knockouts? I’d argue there are maybe two: Randal Kolo Muani and Marcus Rashford. So let’s set them aside.
Asensio is a player I respect very much. Asensio is also a player who hasn’t been able to truly factor for PSG since joining them two seasons ago. He had already annoyed many Real Madrid fans for a couple of seasons before that. Is he taking minutes off anyone good? No. Is paying his €280k weekly wage worth being able to have one more veteran around? I guess it depends on just how nervous you are.
Morata is similarly a familiar name, but he’s headed to Turkey on a €6m loan with an €8m option to purchase. He’s going to the club that already has Victor Osimhen.
Evan Ferguson is a very sexy name, but he is currently short in two areas Arsenal simply cannot compromise this window: He’s not playing at a high level of late, and he’s not been consistently available since at least spring 2024. Is that worth the £40 million or so it would take to sign him on a permanent deal? And is that deal worth blocking a move for someone the club (and me, because I’m super important) like better? Not for me, Clive.
That leaves Mathys Tel, whom many an online football lover declared a natural fit for Arsenal. I also scouted him here, but had stronger doubts about his ability to make an immediate impact as anything other than a bench piece for a club of Arsenal’s talent level. With further details revealed today — Spurs are paying a €10m loan fee and picking up the player’s entire €2m wage for what’s left of the season — I feel even less like Arsenal have missed out here. That may not sound like a lot of money, but it’s not far off what Arsenal will pay for Declan Rice’s services through the end of the season.
So what about Randal Kolo Muani and Marcus Rashford? I think other factors may be at play there, specifically role, play style and cultural fit.
Starting with Rashford, work rate concerns have followed him around for some time now, as have attitude concerns. You can buy into those as much or as little as you want, but it’s not difficult to find moments where Rashford’s effort would come into question. The common retort to raising this kind of concern is that a change of scenery could help, but whether a club takes that on is its decision to make.
Meanwhile, Aston Villa are paying 75% of Rashford’s £300,000 per week wages and giving him a prominent role in the side. The latter part of that statement will have undoubtedly played a role in the forward’s decision regarding which club to join.
Speaking of which, Kolo Muani joined Juventus on loan on January 23, choosing the Italian side over Tottenham. Since the move, he’s started over incumbent Dušan Vlahović in both of the two Serie A matches Juventus have played. He wasn’t eligible for the lone Champions League match they played, but will be for the knockout rounds.
I won’t pretend to know what Thiago Motta has planned for Kolo Muani, but was his starting consistently part of the pitch to attract him to Turin? If so, that’s something Arsenal simply could not match with any level of honesty. I’m certain they could offer him time on the pitch, but not a starting position over the likes of Martinelli, Trossard and Havertz, and certainly not Saka upon his return.
As above, were there other loan options? It’s quite possible. But a team of full-time recruitment analysts scoured the market, presented options and did not turn up anything that Arsenal brass found suitable. And that’s not, by the way, including inbound calls from agents and counterparts at other clubs.
Your response to that may simply been “there must have been someone.” If we’re still there after all this, I can’t change your mind on that one.
“Next Window FC”
As a final chapter of this (very long, I’m sorry) breakdown of the window, I want to explore this idea that Arsenal have become cheap, or that we’re turning into “Next Window FC,” a club that is always promising to pursue its preferred targets in the summer, but coming up with nothing.
What’s behind this idea? It’s pretty simple: Arsenal spent right around £100 million this past summer after talk of going bigger on its preferred targets during the previous winter window. That spend ranks 12th in the Premier League at present for the season.
But was this by design? I’d argue not. Arsenal entered the summer with five attackers and plans to pursue two more - Nico Williams and Benjamin Šeško. Signing either would have added at least £50 million to the summer spend, both another £100 million at least.
In Šeško’s case, there was no hesitation on Arsenal’s side. Reports later emerged that it was Šeško who decided not to make the move, preferring a leading role over being a complement to Kai Havertz. That wasn’t Arsenal being too cheap.
Should Arsenal have signed another striker? It depends on what you believe the club were trying to accomplish by signing Šeško in the first place. With Jesus and Havertz already on the team sheet, this was not a numbers move: This was a qualities move, and a market opportunity.
The same should be said of Nico Williams: Arsenal identified the qualities it desired in a player to challenge for playing time on the wing, and it found a player who encompassed those qualities.
Unless Williams reduces his wage demands, this move feels unlikely to ever happen, but the logic Arsenal displayed in pursuing Williams and no one else was consistent: This is our guy, and we want to sign him. End of story.
Arsenal didn’t end the 2023-2024 campaign short on attacking numbers, they ended short on next-level attacking quality. These two attempted signings demonstrated commitment to the idea that Arsenal are currently stocked with good attackers, and attempting to sign even better ones. Meanwhile, players like Simon Adingra once touted by Arsenal fans as potential solutions are headed to Sunderland on loan.
What happened last summer and this January does naturally apply pressure on Arsenal to make signings this summer, regardless of whether they’re Šeško and Williams or not. Šeško will almost certainly be revisited, and he will be available. Isak will probably be discussed. Gyökeres will be available for at least £20 million less than last summer, making him a better option this time around.
If Williams isn’t happening, others like Semenyo and Mbuemo have emerged as potential options, and certainly they’d add another quality player to Arsenal’s wide attack. Players like those two also make more sense this upcoming summer if Leandro Trossard either exits via sale or decides to play out the final year of his contract.
Nobody’s saying the four months to come are going to be easy. Nobody’s saying Arsenal aren’t taking any risk in deciding to stand pat and weather this storm with those already in their employ. But as usual, in the broad spectrum of takes, the correct answer is somewhere in the middle. And barring something pretty remarkable, yes, Arsenal are going to sign some players this summer.
One thought I have is that Liverpool are not "running away with the league." The fact is that the PGMOL gifted L:iverpool about 10 points with dodgy cards and decisions this season. If we had taken those 10 points, WE would be at the top of the table right now. It's really unfair to the team that they are being judged by winning the league during a season where they were targeted by the PGMOL (intentionally?). This does not even account for the calls that have gone Liverpool's way. Just a thought that occurred to me as I read the opening.
alexander isak!
knock the magpies out of the cup tomorrow.
beat them again in may.
there's a very good chance that they go the month
of February with 0 points!
Isak will want to play in a real European competition
next year.
think of all of the players eddie howe could buy with
a 150m pound windfall.
fwiw. while looking for a release clause figure, i came
across an interesting tidbit. there is a claim on givemesport.com
that isak, and several other magpies, have wage reduction clauses
if the team fail to make the champions league!
so, it's the old who do you support gag. supporter1: who do you support?
supporter2: who are newcastle playing next?