Arsenal compared to expectations: KPI Update for December 2025/26

Checking in on how Arsenal are performing compared to the Key Performance Indicators for the 2025-26 season

If you’re new here, before the season I go through the key stats (points, goals, expected goals, deep completions, open play shots, and field tilt) and set a baseline for what I would consider a success. These are based on historical performances, and they are set at what teams who have won the title have done. The expectations are high but that is what required to win the title.

It has been a good month for Arsenal since we last checked in, Arsenal haven’t lost and have been tested with a tough run of matches including Sunderland (the surprise team of the season), Spurs, Bayern, Chelsea and the last match against Brentford. This run did see Arsenal lose 1 point to Manchester City but saw them pick up 1 on Chelsea, and 4 on Liverpool.

Here is the high-level view of how things are looking compared to expectations:

Let’s dig into the details.

Points

Season Avg: 2.36 per match

Last 10 Avg: 2.4 per match

Season Goal: 2.44 per match

↗️ Arsenal are on top of the table on 93-point pace. It’s hard to be less than thrilled with how Arsenal’s results have gone thus far, especially given that it has been another season tested by injury.

I am not sure there is ever a comfortable lead over a Pep Manchester City team but 5-points at 14 matches played is a decent gap. The gap to everyone else is significantly more comfortable.

Goals

Goals For

Season Avg: 1.93 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.8 per match

Season Goal: 2.27 per match

Goals Against

Season Avg: 0.5 per match

Last 10 Avg: 0.6 per match

Season Goal: 0.77 per match

Goal Difference

Season Avg: 1.43 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.2 per match

Season Goal: 1.5 per match

➡️ Arsenal’s goals allowed pace has slowed from challenging the best ever levels but it is still quite good. Over the last 4 matches, Arsenal have allowed 4 goals and that is more than they had allowed in the first 10 played in the Premier League. It is still damn good that the slightly disappointing level is allowing just a goal per match in a tough run of games.

The goals scored numbers are still lagging but we are seeing the team start to get some more attacking depth back. The last few matches have seen Gyokeres, Madueke, Martinelli, Odegaard, and Jesus return. It has also seen Trossard drop out but overall, more depth has come into the team and that should lead to more goals scored.

I will be interested in how this next 8-10 matches go with these players rounding back into fitness before drawing major conclusions on how the attack looks.

Ultimately, the difference between allowed and created is the key factor and that is tracking to where we want to see things. Arsenal have the best goal difference in the League and the most points.

Expected Goals

Non-Penalty Expected Goals

Season Avg: 1.69 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.73 per match

Season Goal: 1.93 per match

Non-Penalty Expected Goals Against

Season Avg: 0.55 per match

Last 10 Avg: 0.54 per match

Season Goal: 0.78 per match

Non-Penalty Expected Goal Difference

Season Avg: 1.13 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.19 per match

Season Goal: 1.15 per match

↗️ If things took a bit of a step back on the goals for this period, the expected numbers actually took a step forward getting stronger.

We can copy and paste the information about the attack here but even here with all of the injury caveats, the numbers are close to the targets.

Open Play Shots

Open Play Shots For

Season Avg: 9.36 per match

Last 10 Avg: 10.0 per match

Season Goal: 12.89 per match

Open Play Shots Against

Season Avg: 5.07 per match

Last 10 Avg: 3.8 per match

Season Goal: 5.52 per match

Open Play Shot Difference

Season Avg: 4.29 per match

Last 10 Avg: 6.2 per match

Season Goal: 7.37 per match

➡️ If you want to be harsh, you could call this one a miss overall but I put a bit more stock here in the trend and that is positive. Arsenal have seen the open play attack start to show some signs of life after a tough start and the defense has remained very strong.

There is still room for improvement here but you don’t see people posting the open play tables and making fun of Arsenal online with the same regularity and it is not something that is being brought up on the analysis shows.

The open play attack is still below where it has been previously, but the line is moving in an upward direction and that is enough to give me some comfort.

The share of the overall xG has also moved away from being so heavy on the set plays.

Deep Completions

Deep Completions For

Season Avg: 21.71 per match

Last 10 Avg: 23.5 per match

Season Goal: 28.79 per match

Deep Completions Against

Season Avg: 10.93 per match

Last 10 Avg: 11.3 per match

Season Goal: 10.68 per match

Deep Completion Difference

Season Avg: 10.79 per match

Last 10 Avg: 12.2 per match

Season Goal: 18.11 per match

↘️ This has been a touch worrying now for almost two full seasons. Again, you can’t really talk about this without talking about the absences but even with that, Arsenal’s ability to get the ball into dangerous spots hasn’t been at a title level since the second half of the 23/24 season.

That’s less of a worry given that the team doesn’t allow teams to get near their goal so the difference numbers look good, but overall they are still a bit off of where previous title winning teams have been.

It’s title level suppression with, top 4 level attacking numbers. That might be just enough in a season where everyone looks a bit off and flawed but still leaves room for Arsenal to improve. Another thing that I am going to look at quite a bit over the next couple of months, especially with the return of Odegaard to the team.

Field Tilt

Season Avg: 66.93% per match

Last 10 Avg: 69.0% per match

Season Goal: 71.61% per match

➡️ Arsenal’s numbers are ever so slightly below expectations, but it is moving in the right direction here. I don’t really have any worries here.

Overall

It’s good to be Arsenal right now. They have put themselves into a great position to start the season, topping the Premier League and the Champions League.

They have built a good lead at the top of the Premier League, and they look like the most complete team, with the fewest flaws. That has put them in a commanding position to win the elusive title that they have been waiting 22 years to lift.

There is still room for this team to push their ceiling even higher and that makes me even more excited about this team. I want and expect this to be a special season and the start of the season has put Arsenal in a good position to deliver that. The festive season is upon us, it won’t really change the level of busy for Arsenal, but it will keep us full of sports to watch.