Setting the expectations for Arsenal in 2025/26

Pre-registering the measurable expectations for what I will judge as a success for Arsenal this coming season

I am excited for the start of 10 straight months of Arsenal. I have not always been able to say that and it feels good and it makes my task much more enjoyable as a person who writes and talks about the team multiple times a week.

This is easily one of the most talented, deepest, good mix of youth and experience, and generally likeable versions of the team in the 13 seasons that I have been following week in and week out.

My expectations for the team were sky high last season and for the first time in four seasons they stumbled and failed to live up to them. I am able to show a bit of forgiveness for that last season because I can see the cause of many of the underlying issues that led to that (injuries to key players, very disputable red cards, a change of focus from the Premier League to the Champions League).

I think the high expectations are shared across the fanbase and that is justified after three consecutive seasons finishing in 2nd place, with two near misses on a Premier League title. What I am a little apprehensive about this season is that some of the good will and patience might have been used up and any bumps along the way could make things less fun in online Arsenal spaces.

This is for me one of the powers of why I do this at the start of the season. Having a set of measurable performance-based stats to turn back to compared to other measures that are more open to outside factors or expectation drift, and you can look at longer term trends after one or two off matches.

This season I am going to continue to use the average of the teams that finished in 1st place only to set the expectations using data from the 2017/18 season trough the 2024/25 season. That is a high bar, and it will stretch Arsenal given that they fell quite a bit short last season but if Arsenal can get to this level, even if they do disappointingly fall short in lifting a trophy again it won’t be because they didn’t play at the highest level.

This is something that addresses the question that often comes up, “If Arsenal fail to win a trophy, do you think that Areta should be sacked?”

The answer for me is not an easy yes or no, because I continue to think that using trophies as a measure of success is a mistake and that will lead teams to make on average more bad decisions than good decisions. Winning trophies are the goal, but they are a very noisy measurement for if a team is doing well and likely to win them in the future.

I think the current metrics that I have done for this now for three seasons work well so I won’t be making any changes. We will continue to look at points, goals, expected goals, deep completions, open play shots, and field tilt.

Points: The average for 1st place is 92.5 points 2.43 points per match. I am going to round down and say 92 points will be my expectation for this coming season.

Goals: The average for 1st place is 2.27 non-penalty goals, that's 86 .4 scored. The team

Goals Allowed: The average for 1st place is 0.78 non-penalty goals allowed, that's 30 goals.

Goal Difference:  The average for 1st place is 1.49 non-penalty goal difference per match, that's a non-pen goal difference of plus 56.

Expected Goals: The average for 1st place is 1.93 non-penalty expected goals, that's 73 expected goals.

Expected Goals Against: The average for 1st place is 0.8 non-penalty expected goals, that's 30 expected goals allowed.

Expected Goal Difference: The average for 1st place is 1.12 non-penalty expected goals difference, that is plus 42 expected goals difference.

Open Play Shots For: The average for 1st place is 12.99 open play shots per match.

Open Play Shots Against: The average for 1st place is 5.56 open play shots allowed per match.

Open Play Shot Difference: The average for 1st place is 7.43 open play shots difference per match.

Deep Completions For: The average for 1st place is 29.22 Deep Completions per match.

Deep Completions Against: The average for 1st place is 10.69 Deep Completions allowed per match.

Deep Completion Difference: The average for 1st place is 18.53 Deep Completions difference per match.

Field Tilt: The average for 1st place is 72% share of field tilt per match.

Right now, these targets feel very optimistic because the team last season so badly missed trying to hit roughly the same level.

Arsenal’s preseason hasn’t been a repeat of the 2022/23 summer where the team looked like a team transformed and that was a the first sign of a team that had taken a big step forward. That has dampened the mood, even if preseason is generally not a super strong indicator for what is to come.

Looking back to the 22/23 and 23/24 seasons, I still believe that the squad is stronger and deeper than those teams and that it should be possible for this team to surpass the performance from them and that is where the expectations have been set.

In the Champions League, we got our first taste of the new format and the extra matches were felt as it tested the depth of the squad. The summer has addressed this and I again come in with the expectation that Arsenal should be able to make it through the League phase in the top 8 and be able to set themselves up for another deep run. How deep that run is will depend on the draw but I expect Arsenal to be among the top 4-6 teams in Europe next season so getting to the quarter or semi-final would be a solid accomplishment and there is always a chance that this team could go all the way.

For the domestic cups, given the depth of the squad, I think that there is a realistic expectation for deep runs in both. I don’t particularly care about the League Cup and as Newcastle are learning, winning that means diddly squat for keeping players happy or attracting new players to the team. The same can probably be said about the FA Cup but that is a trophy that Arsenal have a deeper history with and it would be great to win that again.

Am I off on these? Too ambitious? Not ambitious enough? Let me know.