Arsenal compared to expectations: KPI Update for January 2025/26
Checking in on how Arsenal are performing compared to the Key Performance Indicators for the 2025-26 season
It has been a strong end of 2025 for Arsenal and that always makes these posts more fun to write. It has been a good month for Arsenal since we last checked in, Arsenal did unfortunately lose this month, but they also won 5 times in the League, added a win to keep them top of the Champions League and advanced to the Semifinals of the League Sup.
If you’re new here, before the season I go through the key stats (points, goals, expected goals, deep completions, open play shots, and field tilt) and set a baseline for what I would consider a success. These are based on historical performances, and they are set at what teams who have won the title have done. The expectations are high but that is what required to win the title.
Here is the high-level view of how things are looking compared to expectations, the expectations are high and that will make things look a bit harsh, but we continue to aim high:
Let’s dig into the details.
Points
Season Avg: 2.37 per match
Last 10 Avg: 2.3 per match
Season Goal: 2.44 per match
↗️ Arsenal are on top of the table on 90-point pace. It’s hard to be less than thrilled with how Arsenal’s results have gone thus far, especially given that it has been another season tested by injury.
I am not sure there is ever a comfortable lead over a Pep Manchester City team but 4-points at 19 matches played is a decent gap. The odds have moved heavily in Arsenal’s favor after the last match but it always feels like we are one match of dropped points away from a crisis. Their is nothing comfortable in a title race.
Goals
Goals For
Season Avg: 1.95 per match
Last 10 Avg: 2.1 per match
Season Goal: 2.27 per match
Goals Against
Season Avg: 0.63 per match
Last 10 Avg: 0.9 per match
Season Goal: 0.77 per match
Goal Difference
Season Avg: 1.32 per match
Last 10 Avg: 1.2 per match
Season Goal: 1.5 per match
➡️ Arsenal’s goals allowed pace has taken a bit of a hit over the last month, the team has given up late goals and managed just 2 clean sheets in the Premier League out of five played.
The goals scored numbers are starting to pick up and that is very positive. It is boosted by some own goals here but we also saw Arsenal cash in some xG with their 4 goals against Aston Villa
The team is starting to get healthy, the full complement of attackers are available, Gabriel is back. That should hopefully help see the “real” Arsenal and start pushing these numbers up on both sides.
Expected Goals
Non-Penalty Expected Goals
Season Avg: 1.71 per match
Last 10 Avg: 1.87 per match
Season Goal: 1.93 per match
Non-Penalty Expected Goals Against
Season Avg: 0.75 per match
Last 10 Avg: 0.92 per match
Season Goal: 0.78 per match
Non-Penalty Expected Goal Difference
Season Avg: 0.96 per match
Last 10 Avg: 0.95 per match
Season Goal: 1.15 per match
➡️ We are seeing the goals get a bit better but the underlying numbers took a bit of a hit here.
Overall, I am pretty happy here with the numbers close to the targets and with the team getting healthy I am optimistic about where the trend is going.
Open Play Shots
Open Play Shots For
Season Avg: 10.84 per match
Last 10 Avg: 12.9 per match
Season Goal: 12.89 per match
Open Play Shots Against
Season Avg: 5.53 per match
Last 10 Avg: 5.2 per match
Season Goal: 5.52 per match
Open Play Shot Difference
Season Avg: 5.32 per match
Last 10 Avg: 7.7 per match
Season Goal: 7.37 per match
↗️ I can’t lie, I have been a touch worried about the attacking shot volume this season. It hasn’t been bad, but it hasn’t been title winning level either.
I have seen Arsenal generate excellent shot quality and volume under Areta so I knew it could happen, but we needed to wait until the attack got healthier. Now that the attack is starting to get back to full fitness the numbers have bounced back and we are seeing some real positives signs.
This is such a relief for me and something that makes me very positive about Arsenal’s attack going forward.
Deep Completions
Deep Completions For
Season Avg: 22.0 per match
Last 10 Avg: 21.2 per match
Season Goal: 28.79 per match
Deep Completions Against
Season Avg: 11.21 per match
Last 10 Avg: 11.5 per match
Season Goal: 10.68 per match
Deep Completion Difference
Season Avg: 10.79 per match
Last 10 Avg: 9.7 per match
Season Goal: 18.11 per match
↘️ This is a bit on the low side for me.
Like everything it is going to be affected by the injuries that Arsenal have had on both ends of the pitch. I am willing to give it a bit more time with something closer to the regular team to see what happens here.
Field Tilt
Season Avg: 66.68% per match
Last 10 Avg: 67.3% per match
Season Goal: 71.61% per match
➡️ Arsenal’s numbers are ever so slightly below expectations, but it is moving in the right direction here. I don’t really have any worries here. Arsenal are a team that continues to dominate field position as good as anyone else in the League.
Overall
It’s good to be Arsenal right now. They have put themselves into a great position to start the season, topping the Premier League and the Champions League. They have also looked like one of, if not the strongest team in both competitions as well.
We have made it to the halfway point of the season and the team has not hit the heights that I think we believe it is capable of, yet the team is top of the table. That’s a good spot to be in and hopefully we do see the team start pushing towards the ceiling.
If that comes, this team can do something special.