Arsenal compared to expectations: KPI Update for March 2025/26
Checking in on how Arsenal are performing compared to the Key Performance Indicators for the 2025-26 season
I haven’t done a check in on how Arsenal are doing compared to my expectations in a while and I thought to myself that I had to rectify that.
Even though this won’t be super pretty, this remains one of my favorite re-occurring posts that I look at over the course of the season. It gives us a nice grounding and sense of context while providing a view for how the season has evolved.
The Premier League as a whole has shifted quickly towards a new way of playing and that makes much of the stats here look outdated or like poor measures but I don’t like changing things mid season so we roll on with what I set out with back in the summer.
If you’re new here, before the season I go through the key stats (points, goals, expected goals, deep completions, open play shots, and field tilt) and set a baseline for what I would consider a success. These are based on historical performances, and they are set at what teams who have won the title have done. The expectations are high but that is what required to win the title.
The overall headline numbers are rough, but I do think that this is a reflection of the Premier League as a whole rather than Arsenal specifically.
Let’s dig into the nitty gritty here.
Points
Season Avg: 2.25 per match
Last 10 Avg: 2.1 per match
Season Goal: 2.43 per match (92-point pace)
↗️ Arsenal are on top of the table on 86-point pace.
It’s below the target I set at the beginning of the season but has put them into a good overall position where if they maintain that they win the League for the first time in two decades.
Goals
Goals For
Season Avg: 2.03 per match
Last 10 Avg: 2.3 per match
Season Goal: 2.27 per match
Goals Against
Season Avg: 0.71 per match
Last 10 Avg: 0.8 per match
Season Goal: 0.77 per match
Goal Difference
Season Avg: 1.32 per match
Last 10 Avg: 1.5 per match
Season Goal: 1.59 per match
➡️Arsenal lead the Premier League in goals scored (2nd for goals per match), lead the League with the fewest goals allowed, and have the best overall goal difference.
The numbers are below historical norms for goals scored and overall difference but there isn’t a team that is doing it better than them in the League right now. It’s a “miss” for the targets but it really isn’t in the context of the season.
Expected Goals
Non-Penalty Expected Goals
Season Avg: 1.65 per match
Last 10 Avg: 1.77 per match
Season Goal: 1.93 per match
Non-Penalty Expected Goals Against
Season Avg: 0.75 per match
Last 10 Avg: 0.79 per match
Season Goal: 0.78 per match
Non-Penalty Expected Goal Difference
Season Avg: 0.9 per match
Last 10 Avg: 0.97 per match
Season Goal: 1.15 per match
➡️ Arsenal are just a bit off of the pace overall for the expected numbers, but this is similar to how things are playing out with the goals numbers. Arsenal have the most expected goals this season, they have the fewest expected goals allowed, and by far the best overall xG difference.
Open Play Shots
Open Play Shots For
Season Avg: 10.2 per match
Last 10 Avg: 9.5 per match
Season Goal: 12.89 per match
Open Play Shots Against
Season Avg: 5.8 per match
Last 10 Avg: 5.7 per match
Season Goal: 5.52 per match
Open Play Shot Difference
Season Avg: 4.45 per match
Last 10 Avg: 3.8 per match
Season Goal: 7.37 per match
↘ A lot of these metrics move in similar directions, but this is one that is lagging behind both goals and expected goals.
This has improved as the season has progressed but overall, the shot volume, especially from open play, has been a major outlier compared to previous League winners and even within the League this season Arsenal rank just 4th.
Deep Completions
Deep Completions For
Season Avg: 21.87 per match
Last 10 Avg: 22.5 per match
Season Goal: 28.79 per match
Deep Completions Against
Season Avg: 10.71 per match
Last 10 Avg: 10.3 per match
Season Goal: 10.68 per match
Deep Completion Difference
Season Avg: 11.16 per match
Last 10 Avg: 12.2 per match
Season Goal: 18.11 per match
↘ I have been worried about this basically all season long for Arsenal being able to generate attacking threat and it just hasn’t really improved.
Again, this is part of a League wide trend and not exclusive to Arsenal but that doesn’t mean I have to like it. Arsenal have also missed the player that has been the best at this over the last few years in Martin Odegaard for significant stretches this season. That probably doesn’t help with the overall numbers here.
Field Tilt
Season Avg: 61.0% per match
Last 10 Avg: 50.8% per match
Season Goal: 71.61% per match
↘ Maybe it doesn’t matter but what happened to field tilt FC?
Overall
This is the time of the season where we all care a bit less about the performance and become much more about the results.
Before we fully switch over, it is nice to get a sense of where things stand and I think that while off the pace of the average winner of recent vintage, this current Arsenal team is standing up fairly well.
I looked deeper into this as questions were swirling about if they would be among the worst ever and given the context and strength of the current Premier League it is a pretty clear and easy no.
I think that we can have something similar with many of these key performance indicators and how they are comparing to previous winners.