Arsenal compared to expectations: KPI Update for November 2025/26

Checking in on how Arsenal are performing compared to the Key Performance Indicators for the 2025-26 season

I sometimes hate being a person who uses data to analyze the game.

The ability to do good analysis is very restricted in the opening part of the season where we are dealing with small samples and there are large impacts due to schedules/game state/red cards.

The people that just give you vibes-based analysis have no such restrictions and that must be nice sometimes.

Now that we have 10-matches in the books, we have hit the stage where the samples are large enough to start looking at things seriously in the data. That means we get to have our first chance to take a look at how Arsenal are performing against my expectations.

If you’re new here, before the season I go through the key stats (points, goals, expected goals, deep completions, open play shots, and field tilt) and set a baseline for what I would consider a success. These are based on historical performances, and they are set at what teams who have won the title have done. The expectations are high but that is what required to win the title.

Arsenal are in a good spot, they still have some room for improvement. It’s the sweet spot for wanting to do some fun analysis.

Let’s dig in.

Points

Season Avg: 2.5 per match

Last 10 Avg: 2.5 per match

Season Goal: 2.43 per match

↗️ Arsenal are on top of the table on 95-point pace. It’s hard to be less than thrilled with how Arsenal’s results have gone thus far.

Arsenal have opened up a decent lead over their direct rivals and have a chance to go into the November international break with an even bigger lead over Manchester City and/or Liverpool with these two teams facing each other where at least one of them will drop points.

Goals

Goals For

Season Avg: 1.8 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.8 per match

Season Goal: 2.27 per match

Goals Against

Season Avg: 0.3 per match

Last 10 Avg: 0.3 per match

Season Goal: 0.77 per match

Goal Difference

Season Avg: 1.5 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.5 per match

Season Goal: 1.5 per match

↗️ Arsenal are on a historical pace for the goals allowed and that is making up for the team not fully firing on the goals scored front. This is overall a spot where the team is hitting the expectations.

We’d all like to see more goals scored, but the injury bug has hit the Arsenal attackers again and all of the depth that Arsenal brought in over the summer was necessary. Without it, this could have been an ugly situation like

Expected Goals

Non-Penalty Expected Goals

Season Avg: 1.61 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.61 per match

Season Goal: 1.93 per match

Non-Penalty Expected Goals Against

Season Avg: 0.57 per match

Last 10 Avg: 0.57 per match

Season Goal: 0.78 per match

Non-Penalty Expected Goal Difference

Season Avg: 1.04 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.04 per match

Season Goal: 1.15 per match

➡️ Arsenal are just a bit off of the pace overall for the expected numbers. This is just about meeting expectations here.

The big outlier here and the one that is dragging down the rating is the attack. The defense is phenomenal, and the difference is close to expectations. If the attack can pick up a bit this will be totally fine.

Open Play Shots

Open Play Shots For

Season Avg: 7.7 per match

Last 10 Avg: 7.7 per match

Season Goal: 12.89 per match

Open Play Shots Against

Season Avg: 5.3 per match

Last 10 Avg: 5.3 per match

Season Goal: 5.52 per match

Open Play Shot Difference

Season Avg: 2.4 per match

Last 10 Avg: 2.4 per match

Season Goal: 7.37 per match

↘ A lot of these metrics move in similar directions, but this is one that is lagging behind both goals and expected goals.

Even the most bullish Arsenal supporter would say that the open play production has been lagging. How much of an issue you think that is will vary but this is one of the few metrics that is really out of whack compared to other title winning teams of the past.

It is approaching a season and half since Arsenal were last putting up title level numbers here. I am still patient here given the injuries and the state of the overall numbers but it’s a metric I look at and I have to be honest about where it is.

Deep Completions

Deep Completions For

Season Avg: 22.2 per match

Last 10 Avg: 22.2 per match

Season Goal: 28.79 per match

Deep Completions Against

Season Avg: 10.8 per match

Last 10 Avg: 10.8 per match

Season Goal: 10.68 per match

Deep Completion Difference

Season Avg: 11.4 per match

Last 10 Avg: 11.4 per match

Season Goal: 18.11 per match

➡️ This is a stat that I put a bit more weight on as a future metric and Arsenal are ever so slightly on the concerning side here.

I should probably be a bit less worried because compared to the rest of the League, Arsenal are doing quite well, the attacking numbers are just down across the board this season. Arsenal are second at 22.2 per match and that is just behind Liverpool at 22.5 on the defensive side Arsenal are on top and it isn’t particularly close (Arsenal are at 10.8 and the next closest team is actually Leeds United at 13.9, that is nearly 30% more per match than Arsenal).

Field Tilt

Season Avg: 64.6% per match

Last 10 Avg: 64.6% per match

Season Goal: 71.61% per match

➡️ Arsenal are off the numbers of the historic title winners, but they lead the league in the metric.

Overall

Even trying to be critical of where the team sits right now, it is hard to come away with things looking rosy overall. Sure we could always want more, but Arsenal at this point of the season (10 matches played) have the largest lead (tied) in the last 10 years of the Premier League.

• 2024-25: Liverpool +2 on Manchester City

• 2023-24: Tottenham +2 on Arsenal and Manchester City

• 2022-23: Arsenal +4 on Manchester City

• 2021-22: Chelsea +3 on Liverpool

• 2020-21: Tottenham and Liverpool tied, +2 on Chelsea

• 2019-20: Liverpool +6 on Manchester City

• 2018-19: Manchester City and Liverpool tied, +2 on Chelsea

• 2017-18: Manchester City +5 on Manchester United

• 2016-17: Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool tied, +1 on Chelsea

• 2015-16: Arsenal and Manchester City tied, +2 on West Ham and Manchester United

This doesn’t guarantee anything, but you’d rather be in this position than the one where you are chasing one of your rivals, especially considering that Arsenal have looked like the class of the League.

The only team that looks somewhat close is Manchester City and they still look like a team that can have off days. They still have the best goal scorer in the world and a manager that has a track record of figuring out how to get a team rolling after early questions, so we cannot count them out.

That is not to say that Arsenal are the finished product either. This team has not come close to seeing what it can do with all of the attacking talent healthy and available.

At the quarter way point of the season Arsenal are in good shape and they have room to hit their ceiling and push on even further. The team is on track, but the job isn’t finished yet.