The useful thing about writing analysis of fluid situations is that the reality tells you when you’re wrong. It doesn’t always happen as fast as it did in this latest situation but it always does.
On Wednesday I read the reporting on Real Madrid’s improved offer to Vinicius Junior and argued it was mostly PR. By Friday, Vinicius had his deal. Whoops.
I'll get dunked on for the misread, and fairly, but I don't think I was that far off and I want to take it as a learning experience as well. So let’s go through what I got wrong, what I still think was right, and what the whole saga says about where Arsenal now sit.
Here is the full thread I posted for context here.
Maybe this is my Arsenal tinted glasses, I see the latest update on Vini to read more of a Madrid PR item.
They aren't saying that they are meeting his ask or even how much they improved it.
‘We offered him what we think he is worth and HE decided to leave’ makes him the bad guy.
[The Athletic Article] says "Madrid were previously unwilling to meet those demands" and then that they improved but not that they have changed their stance on the key sticking point here.
The major issue here and the one that might still exist here is that Vini almost certainly sees himself as the focal point of the project and the team and wants to be paid that way.
Does Madrid see him that way? We don’t know from this report do we?
Madrid seemingly feeling pressure to actually move off of their stance is big news and it does increase the odds he stays there IMO. I am not sure this changes the main issue here that has been the core of the dispute.
With a bit more time and information, I went wrong assuming that Madrid would actually be holding the line on some of the key issues that were keeping them apart. They had held steady that they would not give him a renewal/signing bonus and that they wouldn’t change on their policy around image rights. These are both things that they had done for Kylian Mbappé and Vinicius reportedly wanted to have that as well, in addition to a salary that was in a similar ballpark to Mbappé.
You can do something one time and call it an exception but once you have done it a second time in a short period that becomes a much more tenuous situation to be negotiating from. When Jude Bellingham (or the next big star they want to sign) is looking at a contract they will want that same exception to apply to them and it will be harder for Madrid to say that we don’t do that.
I saw this report and the vague language around how they had improved the offer to mean that they increased the salary offer but hadn’t changed the stance on the other major items.
With hindsight, I was wrong and in the high stakes game of chicken that they were playing, Vinicius and his agents won. Madrid blinked and gave in on something that they said they wouldn’t and that was probably down, at least in part, to the very real offer from Arsenal.
I am sure that there are some people who are going to look at this situation and say that Arsenal got used. It's a word with a negative connotation, and it's a fair description of what happened, but I'd still rather Arsenal were in that room than outside it.
I was consistent through the whole saga that I thought that the most likely outcome was that he stayed in Madrid, but I do think that there was a genuine possibility that he could have ended up at Arsenal. From a sporting perspective, it was a deal that could have worked for both teams given the difficulty of trying to get Vinicius and Mbappé to fit together into a cohesive tactical system and Arsenal’s need for a left winger.
With the gap between Vinicius and Madrid in the contract negotiations, it did seem like the player was legitimately open to other opportunities. Before Arsenal stepped in the most serious option was with the Saudi Pro League and while he could have been paid a ton, most players in their prime still want to play on the biggest stage.
It isn’t normally Arsenal that end up in this situation, but it was exciting to feel like there was a realistic chance at this player. This would be the biggest transfer into the Premier League in a while and he would instantly become one of the biggest stars in the League. The reaction to the interest was eye opening as well, from what I saw people around the League did take it seriously and didn’t laugh it off as silly agent talk and I think that says something about how Arsenal’s stature has grown. Even in the end Real Madrid believed that the outcome was real enough that they were not willing to call Vinicius and see if he was bluffing.
It sucks that Arsenal won’t end up with the player and that they were ultimately used to increase a contract offer. The club still hasn’t made the marquee attacking signing this summer and the remaining options are thinner, and everything is going to feel like a comedown after this.
Three or four years ago this rumor would have been laughed out of the room. This time, nobody laughed, including Real Madrid. I want Arsenal taking these swings, even the ones that don't come off. Especially the ones that don't come off, because the alternative is not being in the conversation at all.
It's a terrible decision by Vinicius. This Real Madrid was disfunction with him and the other two big stars and will be worse with Diomandé and a outdated Mourinho on the equation. Arsenal has done his job, but is always ask too much to players reject Real Madrid, even on this almost certain failure scenario.
The fact that we we at the table for one of the best players on the planet is a very positive development. I expect us to be every table for every top player as we continue to grow and develop as a club. The fact is the he had two options, he chose to play in a better climate in a league that is not as demanding, and that is his choice. We want players who want to be at the best club in the best league in the world. Its that simple.