Arsenal KPI - December 2024

Checking in on how Arsenal are performing compared to the Key Performance Indicators for the 2024-25 season

We are back checking on Arsenal and how they are doing compared to the expectations that I set for them at the start of the season.

Doing these posts continues to be one of my favorites of the reoccurring type posts that I do and I think a sober and cold check on the team’s numbers is needed because it is just so easy to get wrapped up in the narratives online and in the media at large. I think that they are really nice illustrations of where Arsenal are compared to expectations and for how the season is going compared to previous seasons.

Especially recently with the comparisons to Liverpool and how they are doing in Arne Slot’s first season and how that changes fans views of Arsenal. Liverpool are doing well, Arsenal have no control outside of the head-to-head matches and can only focus on themselves. It is silly to get too wrapped up making comparisons at this stage of the season and worrying about things that there are still six full months and 25 League matches to play.

For the items presented below the blue line is the average for the season, the red line on the current season is what I set out as my goal for Arsenal’s season to be a ‘success’. The baseline goal this season is “title winning team” and set the expectations high.

Points

Season Avg: 1.9 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.8 per match

Season Goal: 2.5 per match

↘️ On points, Arsenal are below my expectations

Arsenal are in second place on the table (above Chelsea on the away goals head to head tie breaker), having lost twice, and drawn four and won seven. The total dropped points in 6/13 matches so far is what really hurts and has put Arsenal into a hole that they are digging out of.

I did call out that starting with Nottingham Forest the schedule turned favorable towards Arsenal and they have gone 2/2 so far.

Goals

Season Avg: 2.0 per match

Last 10 Avg: 2.1 per match

Season Goal: 2.3 per match

Season Avg: 1.1 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.3 per match

Season Goal: 0.7 per match

Season Avg: +0.9 per match

Last 10 Avg: +0.8 per match

Season Goal: +1.6 per match

↘️ On all three measures for goals, Arsenal are below my expectations.

It is understandable again the reasons for why Arsenal are where they are for this measure, and things are starting to rebound and move in a more understanding direction. I am still a bit worried about the goals allowed numbers, since we last did this there has been just the one clean sheet in the League and that makes it hard to see the numbers move down.

Expected Goals

Season Avg: 1.7 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.8 per match

Season Goal: 2.0 per match

Season Avg: 1.1 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.1 per match

Season Goal: 0.8 per match

Season Avg: +0.6 per match

Last 10 Avg: +0.7 per match

Season Goal: +1.2 per match

↘️ On all three measures for expected goals, Arsenal are below my expectations.

Arsenal's expected goals are starting to turn in the right direction, but it will continue to take more time to cancel out the time that they spent down a man early in this season.

The attacking numbers are good, still below expectation but not far off and it does look like with Odegaard back the issues that plagued the team are starting to be righted.

At 11v11, Arsenal’s defense looks elite. When they have their first choice players I feel incredibly confident about the unit that they can put out there, we are starting to see this trend downwards as well. If it continues I will have much of my worry melt away.

Shots

Season Avg: 10.4 per match

Last 10 Avg: 10.3 per match

Season Goal: 13.1 per match

Season Avg: 11.2 per match

Last 10 Avg: 10.4 per match

Season Goal: 5.2 per match

↘️On the goals for shots, Arsenal are well below my expectations

I continue to feel okay if a little uneasy about Arsenal’s shot numbers.

In attack the numbers are moving in the right direction along with goals and xG. Having Odegaard comeback and playing a bit less tough of a schedule is a real help to getting things back on track.

On defense, this is still heavily effected by the matches with red cards. I think it is also a reflection that when Arsenal have a lead, they are mostly fine seeing the other team take shots from bad locations as a way of getting the ball back.

Shots are important to look at, but they are below xG and getting the ball into/keeping people out of dangerous locations.

Deep Completions

Season Avg: 24.8 per match

Last 10 Avg: 25.3 per match

Season Goal: 30.0 per match

Season Avg: 18.1 per match

Last 10 Avg: 20.0 per match

Season Goal: 10.1 per match

↘️On the goals for deep completions, Arsenal are well below my expectations

This is something that I have called out as an early indicator and something to watch. In the last month since he last did this Arsenal have 26 per match compared to 24.2 previously and are allowing 10 compared to 21.7 previously.

There is still room to see more from the attack here and I think that it will start to see the numbers tick up.

Field Tilt

Season Avg: 58.6 per match

Last 10 Avg: 58.1 per match

Season Goal: 73.8 per match

↘️On field tilt, Arsenal are below my expectations

This is perhaps an area where we are seeing a shift from Arsenal.

They seem to want to control the ball and the territory, but they are not wed to it at all costs. In the last 4 matches since the last update it is just 64% field tilt from Arsenal. That is a good number but it is not the suffocating number that we have come to expect as the normal.

If the results don’t suffer, I don’t particularly care about field tilt. I do however still believe that it is an important metric that is highly correlated with sustainable success, especially for a team that wants to be elite and challenge for the biggest honors in this sport.

Overall

Arsenal have kicked off points accumulation time going 6 for 6 and still have a run of fixtures ahead of them where they can and should continue to be favored to win. It is out of the teams control what Liverpool does (or really any team they aren’t playing) and all they can do is keep winning and see how the chips fall over the next few months.

The overall numbers are still colored by Red cards but Arsenal are continuing to move up and to the right on the graphics for how well they are performing.

I am still incredibly optimistic about this team and what the future holds for it. I hate that the team has dug themselves a hole and it makes it harder to be able to take advantage of Manchester City slipping up.

The numbers are starting to rebound and move back towards where we would have hoped and expected, hopefully another months worth of good performances can get many of the arrows pointing down moved in a more positive direction.