KPIs for Arsenal in 2024/25

Setting the baseline expectations for success for next year. This team is pushing for a title and that is where I am setting the bar.

Doing the monthly Key Performance checks are one of my favorite reoccurring posts that I do. I think they help a lot to get a sense of how the team is doing in a cold rational sense from a preset baseline based on historical performances.

Last season I set the baseline for performance at the average of the first/second/third place team in the Premier League and I think that worked pretty well for the minimum expectations. Arsenal mostly matched or exceeded these but fell just short of the title.

This season it feels like the team still can and needs to go up a level if they are going to be able to surpass Manchester City. This season I am going to use the average of the teams that finished in 1st place only. This is the goal and that is going to be the baseline for my expectations. If Arsenal can perform like an average 1st place team, I think they will have a very good shot of winning the title, and even if they fall short again, it won’t be because they didn’t perform well enough.

I think the current metrics that I have done for this now for three seasons work well so I won’t be making any changes. We will continue to look at points, goals, expected goals, deep completions, shots, and field tilt.

Points: The average for 1st place is 94.25 points 2.48 points per match. I am going to round down and say 94 points will be my expectation. That is a big number and one that will force Arsenal to get the best out of their team. Last season’s target was 2.29 points per match.

Goals: The average for 1st place is 2.32 non-penalty goals, that's 88 goals. I think that's very doable and a solid goal for this team to shoot for. Last season’s target was 2.1 non-penalty goals.

Goals Allowed: The average for 1st place is 0.73 non-penalty goals allowed, that's 28 goals. I was concerned about the target last season, but Arsenal hit it and had one of the best defensive seasons I have ever seen from them. Last season’s target was 0.83 non-penalty goals allowed.

Goal Difference:  The average for 1st place is 1.24 non-penalty goal difference per match, that's a non-pen goal difference of plus 47. Last season’s target was plus 27 overall.

Expected Goals: The average for 1st place is 1.99 non-penalty expected goals, that's 76 expected goals and again feels a little low but in the plausible baseline range. Last season’s target was 1.98 per match.

Expected Goals Against: The average for 1st place is 0.76 non-penalty expected goals, that's 29 expected goals allowed. Last season’s target was 0.97 per match.

Expected Goal Difference: The average for 1st place is 1.23 non-penalty expected goals difference, that is plus 47 expected goals difference. Last season’s target was plus 42 overall, 1.1 non-penalty expected goals difference per match.

Open Play Shots For: The average for 1st place is 13.1 open play shots per match. Last season’s target was 11.9 per match. I think this will be a key measure, Arsenal was slow to start generating looks from open play last year but when the team was at its best, they started getting 13-15 open play shots per 90.

Open Play Shots Against: The average for 1st place is 5.2 open play shots allowed per match. Last season’s target was 7.4 per match.

Open Play Shot Difference: The average for 1st place is 7.9 open play shots difference per match. Last season’s target was 6.1 per match.

Deep Completions For: The average for 1st place is 30.0 Deep Completions per match. Last season’s target was 27.7 per match.

Deep Completions Against: The average for 1st place is 10.1 Deep Completions allowed per match. Last season’s target was 14.3 per match.

Deep Completion Difference: The average for 1st place is 19.9 Deep Completions difference per match. Last season’s target was 15.4 per match. Overall on deep completions, I feel confident that Arsenal can hit or most likely surpass this, the bigger question and problem was being more efficient from all of this.

Field Tilt: The average for 1st place is 74% share of field tilt per match. Last season’s target was a 65% share of field tilt per match. It will be tough to squeeze much more out of this but we go again, Field Tilt FC till I die.

As of right now, these feel like realistic targets for Arsenal. Arsenal have made massive improvements over the last few years and squeezing the last few marginal gains needed to top Manchester City might be the hardest task yet. The team has had two stretches of play where they have been at the required level but hasn’t quite fully put it together into 1 season. That is the goal for next season.

I am excited for the team, it looks like the window is fully open for the team. There is talent up and down the roster, without a massive hole in the first eleven to address (certainly there is room for improvement in some spots). The depth of the team to handle the schedule and maintain the level is still open for improvements.

For next season my minimum expectations are to challenge for the title again in the Premier League. If the team can avoid massive injuries I think that is the least that should be expected from this team.

In the Champions League, with the new format, I don’t fully know what to expect. I think that Arsenal should finish in the top 8 and avoid the first round of the knock out tournament. From there it will probably depend on the draw but I expect Arsenal to be among the top 4-6 teams in Europe next season so getting to the quarter or semi-final would be a solid accomplishment.

For the domestic cups, I think my goal is different completely from anything attached to winning. I want to see the club return to using this as a showcase for the youth players. The lack of opportunities is potentially affecting the team’s ability to keep some of these players at the club and this still represents the best and lowest-risk way to get these players a chance to play. I don’t want to see a senior first-eleven player in the League Cup, maybe not even in the final. In the FA Cup, I would be willing to see a bit more but want to see the team prioritize using the youth players up to the semi-final.

Am I off on these? Too ambitious? Not ambitious enough? Let me know.