Arsenal KPI - January 2025

Checking in on how Arsenal are performing compared to the Key Performance Indicators for the 2024-25 season

We are back checking on Arsenal and how they are doing compared to the expectations that I set for them at the start of the season.

Just to get things out of the way, it doesn’t look great but I don’t think that will be a shock to people who watch Arsenal regularly.

I normally look forward to these posts but this time I am not. I know it is ugly and I don’t want to increase the negative vibes around the team. I do also worry about what people that are #ArtetaOut will do with it, but people with an agenda will agenda regardless of what I do and I can’t control that and it is important to check in on the baseline expectations even when things aren’t going great.

For the items presented below the blue line is the average for the season, the red line on the current season is what I set out as my goal for Arsenal’s season to be a ‘success’. The baseline goal this season is “title winning team” and set the expectations high. It is a bit crazy that a couple years ago to think we would be disappointed with these results but that is how far we have come, even if things aren’t perfect right now.

Points

Season Avg: 2.0 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.9 per match

Season Goal: 2.5 per match

↘️ On points, Arsenal are below my expectations

Arsenal are in second place on the table (above Nottingham Forest on goal difference), having lost twice, and drawn eight and won twelve. The total dropped points in 10/22matches so far and what really hurts is all of the draws for Arsenal. It is hard to push high 80’s points when you do that.

This is also one where the injuries are probably the key factor, playing extended periods without key players and cluster injuries in positions is a tough hurdle to overcome.

Goals

Season Avg: 2.0 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.8 per match

Season Goal: 2.3 per match

Rating: ↘️

Season Avg: 1.0 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.1 per match

Season Goal: 0.7 per match

Rating: ↘️

Season Avg: +1.0 per match

Last 10 Avg: +0.7 per match

Season Goal: +1.6 per match

Rating: ↘️

Overall: ↘️ On all three measures for goals, Arsenal are below my expectations.

At times this season Arsenal have touched the level that is required, they just have not been able to sustain it long enough to go on a long run, nor have they exceeded expectations like they were able to do on the back half of last season. The attack has been very start/stop and boosted by the set plays. The defense has suffered from letting in goals against the run of play and hasn’t been able to cover for the attack.

It is just not title level.

Expected Goals

Season Avg: 1.9 per match

Last 10 Avg: 2.0 per match

Season Goal: 2.0 per match

Rating: ↔️

Season Avg: 0.9 per match

Last 10 Avg: 0.8 per match

Season Goal: 0.75 per match

Rating: ↘️

Season Avg: +1.0 per match

Last 10 Avg: +1.1 per match

Season Goal: +1.2 per match

Rating: ↔️

Overall: ↔️ I am going to give this a basically meets expectations rating for these numbers. It is just off but the margins are not large and the last 10 matches as the team has gotten away from the 10-men games show things looking pretty strong.

It doesn’t really help given that Arsenal have gone cold at the wrong time with both the goals not going in, and more goals being allowed than expected.

Shots

Season Avg: 10.7 per match

Last 10 Avg: 11.1 per match

Season Goal: 13.1 per match

Rating: ↘️

Season Avg: 7.6 per match

Last 10 Avg: 6.2 per match

Season Goal: 5.2 per match

Rating: ↔️

Season Avg: +3.1 per match

Last 10 Avg: +4.9 per match

Season Goal: +7.9 per match

Rating: ↘️

Overall: ↘️On the goals for shots, Arsenal are well below my expectations

I continue to feel okay if a little uneasy about Arsenal’s shot numbers in attack. This is a worry and it hasn’t really gotten better as the season has progressed

On defense, the early season slump is basically all down to the red cards and it has bounced back nicely.

Overall, this remains a problem, especially for the attack. You can win with the combination of decent shot numbers and good average quality but it feels like it leaves things open to variance a bit too much.

Deep Completions

Season Avg: 27.1 per match

Last 10 Avg: 29.7 per match

Season Goal: 30.0 per match

Rating: ↔️

Season Avg: 12.6 per match

Last 10 Avg: 7.9 per match

Season Goal: 10.1 per match

Rating: ↗️

Season Avg: +14.6 per match

Last 10 Avg: +21.8 per match

Season Goal: +19.9 per match

Rating: ↔️

Overall: ↔️On the goals for deep completions, Arsenal are hitting expectations for the attack, and beating them on allowed, overall I give this a meets rating.

I believe that this is a leading indicator and it has led the team’s recovery in xG but it hasn’t fully worked out to points. I think this is a positive for how the team is set up and playing, it is just a matter of what happens in the boxes here to how the rest of the year will go.

There is still room to see more from the attack here and I think that it will start to see the numbers tick up.

Field Tilt

Season Avg: 68.4 per match

Last 10 Avg: 76.4 per match

Season Goal: 73.8 per match

↔️On field tilt, Arsenal are basically hitting the expectations, especially weighting for how things are going more recently.

Overall

Arsenal have not lost in the league since November but the draws have made this unbeaten in the League run less impressive and have left Arsenal still on the long shot side for winning the title.

The performances have gotten better for Arsenal it just hasn’t gone their way and with how they started the season that left them no margin for error on that front.

I want to be optimistic on the team and the numbers do suggest that this team is not bad, it is just a team that has been hard hit by injury and bad bounces. That’s too much to overcome for a title.

There are still things to fight for this season but it seems like the path to the season fulfilling the dreams we had in August are getting slimer and slimer.