Arsenal KPI - March 2025

Checking in on how Arsenal are performing compared to the Key Performance Indicators for the 2024-25 season

I am looking forward to this one less than I have in the past. The total injuries that Arsenal have dealt with this season just makes this less fun. It feels like we have dealt with season over injuries three times this season: first when Saka went down, then again when Havertz was lost for the season, and now to add a cherry on top Arsenal have lost Gabriel.

That just makes doing this hard and it makes me feel like I have to repeat the line, “we all understand some of the reason why” over and over again going through this.

I don’t want to stop doing this because it is still nice to check in on how the team is doing but it just isn’t nearly as fun as it was this time last season when Arsenal were smashing expectations.

For the items presented below the blue line is the average for the season, the red line on the current season is what I set out as my goal for Arsenal’s season to be a ‘success’. The baseline goal this season is “title winning team” and set the expectations high.

Points

Season Avg: 2.0 per match

Last 10 Avg: 2.1 per match

Season Goal: 2.5 per match

↘️ On points, Arsenal are below my expectations but creeping up towards them

Arsenal remains in second place on the table. They're a bit on an island there all by themselves, well behind Liverpool but pretty comfortably ahead of the teams in 3rd through 6th. Staying second is basically the goal now for the rest of the season and trying to get some momentum going for next season.

Goals

Season Avg: 1.8 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.6 per match

Season Goal: 2.3 per match

Season Avg: 0.8 per match

Last 10 Avg: 0.7 per match

Season Goal: 0.7 per match

Season Avg: +1.0 per match

Last 10 Avg: +0.9 per match

Season Goal: +1.6 per match

↘️ The attack is dragging this down and “we all know the reasons why” applies here. The defense after a hiccup early has been as good as expected.

Expected Goals

Season Avg: 1.6 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.4 per match

Season Goal: 2.0 per match

Season Avg: 0.9 per match

Last 10 Avg: 0.8 per match

Season Goal: 0.8 per match

Season Avg: +0.7 per match

Last 10 Avg: +0.6 per match

Season Goal: +1.2 per match

↘️ Unsurprisingly, the story for expected goals matches the actual goals.

Arsenal’s problem hasn’t really been finishing but rather that they are not creating enough. “we all know the reasons why” works here as well but there is still potentially some questions here if there has been enough creativity here around the team.

Shots

Season Avg: 10.0 per match

Last 10 Avg: 10.5 per match

Season Goal: 13.1 per match

Season Avg: 7.6 per match

Last 10 Avg: 6.4 per match

Season Goal: 5.2 per match

↘️On the goals for shots, Arsenal are well below my expectations and it is a concern for me all season. Arsenal have a hole for players taking shots in their team and even when healthy it can be a problem, but it is probably harder to say how big of a problem without seeing this team closer to full strength.

On defense, the early season numbers still distort the overall numbers but the last 10 matches has seen Arsenal back to trend as an elite shot-suppressing team. I am not worried about this right now.

Deep Completions

Season Avg: 25.1 per match

Last 10 Avg: 24.4 per match

Season Goal: 30.0 per match

Season Avg: 13.1 per match

Last 10 Avg: 11.5 per match

Season Goal: 10.1 per match

↘️On the goals for deep completions, Arsenal are below my expectations and again the story is that the attack is more concerning than the defense which has trended to expectation after an early season blip that was red card driven.

I watch these numbers closely and like shots they continue to make me nervous. Arsenal have never been the best at turning these into shots and they need to be elite at getting volume from their passing to generate the shot numbers needed and right now it is just not happening.

Field Tilt

Season Avg: 67.0% per match

Last 10 Avg: 70.8% per match

Season Goal: 73.8% per match

↘️On field tilt, Arsenal are below my expectations but not really a concerning amount below here, especially over the last 15 matches played.

After a slow start of the season down to the 10-man matches and the early injuries Arsenal have bounced back to basically back to where I expected.

Overall

The Premier League doesn’t off a ton for Arsenal the rest of the season. It has been a season where everything has gone wrong for them and that has been unsurmountable. It is actually a pretty darn good job that even with the things that have gone against Arsenal they still find themselves comfortably in the second-place spot and comfortably outside of the top 4/5 scrape below them.

They have also matched their progress in the Champions League with another quarter final appearance. I am really bummed that they will go into that depleted because it was a nice thing to still look forward to and now it feels a bit deflated. Anything can happen but the difficulty level is that much higher now.