Arsenal KPI - November 2024

The first Key Performance Indicator check of the season

Trying to find the right timing for this post is always tough; this year with 3 red cards in the opening 9 matches it is even harder.

I typically have skipped doing one of these for August and September because it is just too noisy with few matches played and who you have played making a big difference and I almost decided to wait further because of the red cards. Ultimately, I decided to go with it, trusting that my readers wouldn’t get too bogged down with the specifics and come see the bigger picture.

Doing these posts are one of my favorites of the reoccurring type posts that I do and I didn’t want to wait another month before I brought it back to check on how the team is doing. I think that they are really nice illustrations of where Arsenal are compared to expectations and for how the season is going compared to previous seasons.

For the items presented below the blue line is the average for the season, the red line on the current season is what I set out as my goal for Arsenal’s season to be a ‘success’. The baseline goal this season is “title winning team” and set the expectations high.

Points

Season Avg: 2.0 per match

Last 10 Avg: 2.1 per match

Season Goal: 2.5 per match

↘️ On points, Arsenal are below my expectations

Arsenal are in third place on the table, having lost only once but dropped points in 4/9 matches so far. In all but one of those dropped points situations, they also were down a man for 40+ minutes in those matches. It is impossible to say what happens without those red cards but they are certainly a drag on the points accumulation.

Goals

Season Avg: 1.9 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.9 per match

Season Goal: 2.3 per match

Season Avg: 1.1 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.1 per match

Season Goal: 0.7 per match

Season Avg: +0.8 per match

Last 10 Avg: +0.8 per match

Season Goal: +1.6 per match

↘️ On all three measures for goals, Arsenal are below my expectations.

It is understandable again the reasons for why Arsenal are where they are for this measure. Red cards are a major punishment and they have been exactly that for Arsenal this season.

This is not something that the team cannot overcome, it just makes it more difficult.

Expected Goals

Season Avg: 1.8 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.9 per match

Season Goal: 2.0 per match

Season Avg: 1.2 per match

Last 10 Avg: 1.1 per match

Season Goal: 0.8 per match

Season Avg: +0.6 per match

Last 10 Avg: +0.8 per match

Season Goal: +1.2 per match

↘️ On all three measures for expected goals, Arsenal are below my expectations.

Arsenal's expected goals figures are not pleasant viewing right now.

The attacking numbers are pretty good, still below expectation but at least it is closeish. The attack hasn’t gotten a fair amount of attention so far, but it might really come down to one of the more creative and progressive members of the team has been missing for two months and the team has spent a lot of time defending because they were down a man.

At 11v11, Arsenal’s defense looks elite. When they have their first choice players I feel incredibly confident about the unit that they can put out there. They haven’t had enough of these two factors yet. I still have confidence that it will come.

Shots

Season Avg: 10.3 per match

Last 10 Avg: 11.4 per match

Season Goal: 13.1 per match

Season Avg: 11.2 per match

Last 10 Avg: 10.4 per match

Season Goal: 5.2 per match

↘️On the goals for shots, Arsenal are well below my expectations

I am not too worried about the shot numbers yet. It took Arsenal a bit of time to get rolling last season on this and I think they should be able to round into that form again.

On defense, this is heavily effected by the matches with red cards. Arsenal gave up 22 shots against Brighton, they gave up 15 shots against Tottenham (no red card but lots of defending), and a massive 33 shots against Manchester City.

Outside that 3 match run, the team has been closer to normal and I believe that as long as they don’t continue to go down a man against good teams they will see the shots allowed return to previous levels.

Deep Completions

Season Avg: 24.2 per match

Last 10 Avg: 26.3 per match

Season Goal: 30.0 per match

Season Avg: 21.7 per match

Last 10 Avg: 19.9 per match

Season Goal: 10.1 per match

↘️On the goals for deep completions, Arsenal are well below my expectations

Getting and keeping teams away from dangerous locations is a generally a leading indicator that I like to look at. Normally that would make me nervous about the direction of these stats. I am still fairly calm because like shots, these are very heavily influenced by the red card, and even more really just the Manchester City (88 allowed in that match, 109 in ALL the other matches right now) match right now.

Without the red cards it is 12.0 allowed per match. Without the Manchester City match it is 13.6.

Still below the measure for what I want to see and expect this team with the elite defenders but much better

Field Tilt

Season Avg: 56.1 per match

Last 10 Avg: 59.6 per match

Season Goal: 73.8 per match

↘️On field tilt, Arsenal are below my expectations

Again, we know the reasons. In the matches without red card Arsenal have been 68.5%, below the goal but close. In the matches with a red card 31% and having spent too much time in that space it will weigh things down.

Interestingly, there might still be a shift from Arsenal on this. The possession numbers, even when not down a man are down, ideally that shouldn’t mean too much loss of controlling possession but it might drag them down from the very top of the numbers.

Overall

Arsenal have weathered this start of the season about as well as you would have hoped. It has been tough and made harder with the self-inflicted (and PGMOL aided) red cards. Arsenal are not out of it but they have given themselves a hill to climb to try and achieve their goals.

Looking at them on the weighted xG and Goals for and against, Arsenal are up in the upper right corner (aka the good corner) for the Premier League so far this season, back a bit from the best teams but still showing themselves as a team that is doing well.

Looking at just the time 11v11 it looks even better and that really buoys my hopes for this team a lot right now and gives me realistic expectations that they can overcome the gap they have left to Manchester City and Liverpool.

Hopefully the next time we get together to look at these the numbers have taken a turn for the positive and the story is better for Arsenal.