Bryan Mbeumo links? Sure, I guess it is fine
I am not fully sold on the player but it all goes back to a pure numbers game at a point
The transfer rumors keep coming.
The latest on Arsenal’s search for a forward is reports in L’Equipe (via GFFN) and others is that Arsenal hold interest in Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo.
Transfermarkt says that he has a contract through 2026 (but with a club option to extend for an additional season) and that is sort of the selling sweet spot given his age (25) and contract situation. He is valued at something in the £40-£45 million range on transfermarkt and in the reports.
I have to say that I am not fully convinced that this is a needle moving signing but maybe it is a solid January move to address that Arsenal haven’t added often enough to their attack so they are just short numbers.
I don’t want this to come across as he is bad because he clearly isn’t, it is just a matter of the expectations and where it fits into the Arsenal squad. If the idea is that you are buying a depth player that you expect to hopefully replicate a Leandro Trossard type role I think that fits, if you expect that he is a full-time starter, I think you would be disappointed.
Looking at him compared to other wingers and he rates solidly above average but his time at Brentford doesn’t suggest that he is a talent that should be a starting player on a Champions League team.
He doesn’t have any massive weaknesses and shows as above average with the shooting. This is a valuable basket of skills and he complements it with his versatility, having been played in a number of spots for Brentford.
This would ease my mind a bit on him when Bukayo Saka comes back given that he can cover more than just right wing.
Hot finishing boosting him?
Mbeumo has hit double figures already this season for goals scored in the Premier League and that is mighty impressive.
He has done it on just 32 shots, and just 17 of them on target (numbers before this matchweek) and 4.5 xG.
That points to this being something that is probably more hot streak than what you should expect going forward.
For his career, this is the outlier. He had a big season in the Championship where he was +5.4, followed by a -1.0 and was below his xG for his 3 previous seasons in the Premier League at -5.3, -0.6, and -0.8.
Weird things can happen in small samples, maybe he has figured something out and this is the new normal.
However, I would be very skeptical to make a big bet on that continuing given his previous track record over the last 250 shots he has taken where he looks like he might be streaky and more of a goals = xG player than an amazing finisher.
Final Thoughts
This move could be fine. He looks better right now because he is running hot but he has solid skills and the Premier League experience.
There is also a bit of a how does he translate moving from a more transition heavy team to Arsenal, does he make the team more transitional, or does he have to adapt to having less of those potential moments?
He is a bit older than you would like if you want to expect or project growth and improvement on the player. This is very much the late/middle of the prime for a wide player.
It is always tough to guess how changing teams affects a players numbers because it can be ambiguous with different players seeing things move in different ways. Mbeumo doesn’t seem to have massive splits beating up worse teams and Brentford have not been that bad of a team to where I think the change would be massive for the pure talent change (style for sure would be an adjustment).
If the price is reasonable, I can get on board for this type of move. If £40m is the actual fee that is being looked at I think that’s reasonable for the conditions that you would expect in January where you have to overpay to get a player and with the desperation that Arsenal have it would be fine.
I would just maybe temper my expectations on what the player’s ceiling could be, with this from my perspective looking more of Trossard type than first eleven nailed on player.
What do you guys think?
Great piece; one big concern I’d have for Mbeumo is his age and likely contract length. Assuming a 4½ year deal we’d be with him until he’s 30 at which point his resale value would probably be zero (or more likely he’d go on a free). We’d be eating quite a lot of wages for a back-up where a younger player would (perhaps) be cheaper and have more potential for upside.