We are seven matches into the Premier League season, which means we have officially exited the "it’s too early to look at anything" phase and entered the "let’s read far too much into weird small-sample underlying numbers" phase.
With the international break giving us a brief moment to breathe and take stock that also is a perfect opportunity to rank teams for the first time this season.
7. Tottenham
There was no one else here who deserved this spot more than Spurs. They have spent huge in the summer looking to improve on a disastrous season only to find themselves in roughly the same spots that they were before.
In fact, they are actually worse off than they were last season from the same fixtures by 2 points and have scored 1 fewer goal while allowing 1 more goal than last season.
It is always hilarious to see Spurs struggle and that they have not been able to escape the bottom of the table, but they do probably “deserve” to be a bit higher up based on some of their performances this season.
On expected points they should probably be closer to mid-table than in last place, but that would still put them in a disappointing situation given their spending and stature as a “big” club.
It isn’t just the expected points that would put them in a better position; looking at how they rank on creating/allowing high-quality chances, shots, field tilt, and touches in the box all point in that same direction.
Don’t get me wrong here, this is still well below what you’d expect from this team after that summer, but it is certainly not dead-last caliber.
I am not going to worry too much about it because it is fun to see them at the bottom of the table (and these power rankings) for as long as possible.
6. Brighton
I almost had the guts to place Brighton higher than this position, but for now I think that they might be running a bit hot to where I am not sure that they should be in the actual top 5 for the power rankings.
We are firmly in small sample size mixed with red cards playing a huge role. That is especially true with Brighton, who have played the fewest minutes at an even 11 vs 11 this season.
This makes a pretty big difference for their numbers.
They look like they might be the best team (they would at least be in the conversation) looking at the overall weighted xG numbers this season, but when you look at the time where they are at even state that drops down to where they look good but not quite in the elite range.
This is also the case for them and the overall game states that they have found themselves in. They are a team that has a hard time playing a normal close game this season! They have matches that have finished 5-0, 4-0, 3-0, 4-3 (where it was a +3 game state for a long stretch). They have just the Leeds match that was a 1-1 this season.
This is a good time to bust out using the graphics for different game states. These look at when the match is competitive and when the match is within a goal.
The competitive game state looks a bit better for Brighton, but that still takes off some of the time where they have been able to run up the score. The close game state punishes them quite a bit, moving them back into basically the middle of the pack.
So after all of this what is the takeaway?
Brighton are a weird team and getting a handle on them will take a bit more time. They are selling out to attack, and that has mostly worked for them and it has made for some very fun games to watch involving them.
I think that I personally am willing to give them a bit of credit for the early season performances, but might still reserve the right to put them back into the group of teams that make up the giant mid-table group.
The guys at the double pivot podcast kind of jokingly made the point that that mid-table starts at 3rd and while that is attention grabbing an exaggeration it has a bit of truth to it when you look at the tiers of teams.
I am not willing to go quite as bold, and I think that there is a tier just above mid-table between the title contenders, and I don’t think that Brighton are quite there yet. When I do this next month that might change, but for now they are on my "team that I am watching closely" list.
Now we get to the very tough part and trying to tell apart the next few teams…
5. Chelsea
I am sticking Chelsea here as the lowest-rated team between United, Liverpool, and Chelsea.
I think that I would rather think of this as 3c than 5, but that isn’t how I have ever done these power rankings and I respect the totally made-up and arbitrary ranking decisions I made in the past and won’t change it now.
For now I think you have to stick Chelsea in this spot. They came in with the most questions of any of these teams, and I don’t think that they have been overly convincing in their opening 7 matches that makes you think that the dysfunction that has plagued this club is a thing of the past.
Look at their 5-match rolling average of xG for and against and try and tell me that this looks like we are seeing green shoots?
I can’t do it, and if you can, please let me know what you are seeing here that makes you confident about them.
