Distributing Minutes for Arsenal

I started an interesting discussion on twitter today with a graphic where I posted what I think an ideal distribution of Arsenal’s minutes would look like if there weren’t any major injuries that messed with things was.

One of the things that I got push back on was that I didn’t have enough rotation and well I am not a big fan of rotation, especially if we want Arsenal to challenge for a title and that is something I want to see.

I think Arsenal’s first eleven can go up against just about any team in the world and hold their own. I think that they have added some nice depth but it isn’t at the level where half the team can rotate out and play the same so it will require leaning on the core players a lot if Arsenal want to achieve the big things this season.

In my mind, I really want to see the majority of the minutes going to the first eleven players and then looking at the players in 12-15 as people that help spell the key guys but still depend on the core to make things happen. I think it would be hard to rotate too much more when the margins at the top of the Premier League are so tight.

Below is my view on how each position breaks down.

Goal Keeper:

I think this is pretty clear where Aaron Ramsdale is the clear first choice. When he’s healthy he plays, if he’s got even a minor knock he still probably plays.

Aaron Ramsdale: 100% in Premier League, 75% in Champions League, 0% in Cups

Matt Turner: 0% in Premier League, 25% in Champions League, 100% in Cups

Right Back:

This is one that is tough. Arsenal have brought in Timber and he looks like a real exciting prospect but I think Ben White is still the number one here. The big wrinkle here is what might happen at right center back and that could have ripples here with White spending more time at center back.

Jurriën Timber: The Debrief

Ben White: 78% in Premier League, 65% in Champions League, 5% in Cups

Jurriën Timber: 15% in Premier League, 30% in Champions League, 80% in Cups

Takehiro Tomiyasu: 7% in Premier League, 5% in Champions League, 15% in Cups

Right Center Back:

This is Saliba’s position and I think that when he is healthy he is going to play the vast majority of the minutes. I think that White is the next man up with the others potentially getting some scraps here or some time in Cups.

William Saliba: 92% in Premier League, 85% in Champions League, 5% in Cups

Ben White: 5% in Premier League, 10% in Champions League, 5% in Cups

Takehiro Tomiyasu: 1% in Premier League, 5% in Champions League, 75% in Cups

Jurriën Timber: 2% in Premier League, 0% in Champions League, 15% in Cups

Left Center Back:

Same story as with Saliba. This is Big Gabby’s position.

Gabriel: 92% in Premier League, 95% in Champions League, 5% in Cups

Jakub Kiwior: 6% in Premier League, 5% in Champions League, 60% in Cups

Takehiro Tomiyasu: 2% in Premier League, 0% in Champions League, 35% in Cups

Left Back:

This is Zinchenko most of the time but like Tierney before him (who I also don’t anticipate getting much time even if he stays) has injury concerns so I am adjusting down my expectation and upping the need for rotation here.

Oleksandr Zinchenko: 65% in Premier League, 65% in Champions League, 5% in Cups

Jakub Kiwior: 25% in Premier League, 30% in Champions League, 80% in Cups

Takehiro Tomiyasu: 10% in Premier League, 5% in Champions League, 15% in Cups

Defensive Midfield:

The big question hanging over this is what to do with Thomas Partey now that Declan Rice is in the team. One of the big advantages of Rice is that he is available all the time, over the last few years he has played 95%, 93%, 84%, 100%, and 88% of minutes. It is hard to imagine that he isn’t coming to Arsenal to play anything other than major minutes for Arsenal.

So where does that put Partey? I am not sure and it is one of the big remaining questions for the season ahead. For now I am sort of assuming that this he is moving on and a replacement is going to come in for defensive midfield.

Declan Rice: 75% in Premier League, 85% in Champions League, 10% in Cups

Jorginho: 15% in Premier League, 10% in Champions League, 35% in Cups

New Player: 10% in Premier League, 5% in Champions League, 55% in Cups

Right Advanced Midfield:

Ødegaard is the captain and he will play the vast majority of the time here. I think this is Vieira’s best position and where he will get most of his minutes.

Martin Ødegaard: 85% in Premier League, 85% in Champions League, 10% in Cups

Fabio Vieira: 10% in Premier League, 5% in Champions League, 70% in Cups

Kai Havertz: 5% in Premier League, 10% in Champions League, 20% in Cups

Left Advanced Midfield:

It took me a while but I do think this is probably the main starting position for Havertz with Arsenal. I think he will add an interesting interpretation of the position and do things in a different way than Xhaka. This is also potentially a spot where Rice could get minutes that I have not really accounted for.

I think Trossard might be the most likely main back up here, because he might be able to do something that rymes with what Havertz did but I have low confidence on this and it will be interesting how this plays out over the USA tour.

Replacing Granit Xhaka's production

Kai Havertz: 65% in Premier League, 70% in Champions League, 30% in Cups

Leandro Trossard: 20% in Premier League, 20% in Champions League, 20% in Cups

Emile Smith Rowe: 10% in Premier League, 5% in Champions League, 30% in Cups

Fabio Vieira: 5% in Premier League, 5% in Champions League, 20% in Cups

Right Wing:

This is Saka’s spot for hopefully a long time. I am slotting Nelson here was the backup but I am again not super sure, it could be Jesus with others slotting into striker.

Bukayo Saka: 90% in Premier League, 85% in Champions League, 15% Cups

Reiss Nelson: 7% in Premier League, 10% in Champions League, 75% in Cups

Fabio Vieira: 3% in Premier League, 5% in Champions League, 10% in Cups

Left Wing:

This is Martinelli’s spot for hopefully a long time. I think this is ESR’s best back up position and I hope he takes the rotation job here.

Gabriel Martinelli: 80% in Premier League, 80% in Champions League, 10% Cups

Emile Smith Rowe: 10% in Premier League, 10% in Champions League, 70% in Cups

Leandro Trossard: 10% in Premier League, 10% in Champions League, 20% in Cups

Striker:

I am a big Jesus fan and I think he is an underrated part of what allowed Arsenal to make a leap last year and that he’s still a big part of what makes Arsenal’s attack click. I think with Trossard and Havertz, Arsenal have two additional players that can’t help replicate closer to what he does and would be more likely to start matches should he need a break. I think Nketiah is a fine player but he’s probably a guy who comes in for the final 10 minutes more than anything else now.

Gabriel Jesus: 75% in Premier League, 80% in Champions League, 10% Cups

Leandro Trossard: 10% in Premier League, 7% in Champions League, 50% in Cups

Kai Havertz: 8% in Premier League, 7% in Champions League, 5% in Cups

Eddie Nketiah: 7% in Premier League, 6% in Champions League, 35% in Cups

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Let me know what I got wrong