See, I’d dispute both of those things. I think Tomi is the better RB (and CB) and that White was very susceptible to crosses last season. For what was paid, which is basically the top of the market at the time, he’s nowhere near value for money.
As for this season, he doesn’t do enough to combine with Saka, who then gets isolated on the right unless Odegaard drifts over. His crossing is meh and he can’t over- or underlap.
And, again, for the £50M plus wages, it’s a clear failure to me.
That is an interesting take, I disagree and I think that Arteta would agree seeing as he has preferred White to Tomi when given the chance this season.
I think White looks to be a superior player contributing to the attack vs Tomi as well.
I really have a hard time saying White is a failure when he has played a lot, the team has won a lot of points while he has played, he has been a key part of why the team has played well.
He has really converted me from skeptical about his move with his performance over the last 18 months.
Has he? Toni's been injured, and then when healthy has played on the left a lot. White's the fallback option, from what I can see.
This year White has played better than Tomi given the injury issues and playing on the left, but Tomi was superior last season.
And, again, you can't remove the fee and the opportunity cost of it. Spending 50M on him when they had Saliba, with glaring needs in other positions, and then buying Tomi to cover him defensively, just doesn't scream successful.
I would gladly wager a $5 that White is the starting right back ahead to Tomi against West Ham on December 26 (both healthy and all that)
If you would rather pick a different match that is fine with me as well. Maybe Jan 15 against Tottenham after some of the just coming back fixture congestion is sorted.
That's a mug's wager since it depends on Arteta's preference and not what I would do. Given my thoughts on Arteta and his preferences, I'm are you're right, much to my chagrin.
I think that as at least some plausible evidence that the talent is seen as White > Tomi from a guy paid to make that call. I would put that down as a mark in the success factor category
Yeah for the first 9 weeks of the season when White and Zinchenko were healthy Tomi was healthy and on the bench. I would take that as a signal that Arteta prefers White to Tomi given the choice between the two when healthy.
Was Tomi superior last year? I don't really know, they played different positions so it is really hard to make a comparison. I do think that both were quite good when they played last year.
As for the fee I think that colors my thought on expectations for the player. For White that means I expect him to be a regular starter and to perform at a level that corresponds to that and he has. He has played alot and he has looked good when he played.
For the opportunity cost, there is always one because there could have been other choices made, ala Saliba. That does quickly go into counterfactual world where we can only speculate on what might have happened. Maybe Saliba comes in and isn't at this maturity level and is exposed, maybe he comes in and is the exact same good player and that money is spent elsewhere.
I think Tomi is more the reflection of not trusting Bellerin/Cedric/AMN on RB vs not trusting White, especially as White is being preferred to him.
I don't think Tomi was healthy at all to start the season. He was injured over the summer and missed the Palace match due to injury. Then was on the bench, but I don't think he was actually fit, from what I remember and contemporaneous accounts.
I think he certainly has worked his way back over those 9 weeks. He was healthy enough to start for his country and for Arsenal in the Europa League. So maybe not all but certainly some.
Perhaps. But could also see an issue where not playing White, after the gyrations with Saliba, could have become an issue. Tomi, given his fee and positional flexibility, is more expandable.
Also on the injury front, it feels there’s a difference between a player who misses months because some oaf smashed his ankle in a match (GJ) and a player who plays three weeks, misses four weeks, plays three weeks etc (OZ)
Yeah there probably is and that is likely something that would show out the longer a player is with a team. There is potentially something to the style of player that maybe invites that ala jack wilshere but still hard to say.
Not sure how Ben White is a success given the fee paid and he’s playing — in my opinion — barely acceptable at RB having been dislodged by his technical predecessor. If Arsenal had a healthy LB would White be starting over Tomi?
And while you can argue Salian’s loans were successful for his development, he probably spent one year too many in France, which led to the unsuccessful White signing.
I’d say success because he looked good last year as a CB and he has been impressive as a RB this year displacing the other guy that we just bought.
As for Saliba, that’s a hard counter factual. Can’t say for certain what maybe happens but we do know that right now he looks very good and maybe that doesn’t happen without the loan. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
would offer slight pushback on Sambi. We signed him for a modest fee and relatively low wages. He’s played a lot of minutes for us and has generally done okay. Perfect squad player for the Europa league version of Arsenal. If we sell him this summer for anything near what he bought him for (which is possible!)then I think you have to put it down as a success.
I also think the “heir apparent to Partey” discourse was more of a fan construct than something the club ever said or expected.
There are like 4 players in the world on the Partey level. Expecting a 20 year old from the Belgian league to develop into that was always a long shot so I think he needs to be judged based on his fee, wages, production/minutes, and sell-on fee and in that context he looks a decent signing.
Yeah I think that fair and I do think it might be a bit harsh. I do feel I am higher on Sambi than a lot of people but still think it’s probably right that he’s a deep squad player.
My one thought is that looping in injury issues may be unfair for players who didn’t have a track record of those before the signing. Partey for example played 30+ league matches the three seasons prior to the transfer and therefore I don’t consider the transfer itself a failure. If you do a similar analysis in the future it may be worth differentiating players with previous availability issues versus those who developed them afterwards.
The reason I would say it is fair to do so for the same reason that I think it is fair to say that Willian and Pepe were failures even if their statistical stats record before the move showed that they should produce a level much higher than they did at Arsenal.
This isn't to say that they SHOULD have known but it is something that has hurt the team and made these transfers not a success.
Agreed that I don’t think we should disregard transfers from the early stages of their partnership, but if the question is whether the pair deserve trust, looking at some of the early signings probably doesn’t make sense.
I’m more curious about the post-Raul signings, but even that feels like a somewhat arbitrary cut-off. Was Big Gabi a post-Raul signing because he signed his contract two weeks after Sanllehi left? Because there almost certainly was contact prior to that, right?
What’s surprising to me is how many of the Emery / Raul / Edu signings were actually good. The tremendous size of the Pepe flop skews that.
Yeah drawing a line is very hard, Edu has been around longer but how big of a hand he had in decision making is unclear. Same with Arteta recently, we assume he has some to maybe maybe quite a lot but how much exactly? Can't say with a lot of certainty.
Surprised at how Sambi’s chart looks. Way more filled out than I expected it to be.
I know it doesn’t work like this, but if KT, Partey, Tomi, and Zinchenko were consistently fit they would all be clear successes. I’m not in love with KT either, but he’s a solid Top 6 LB who will stick around for 6-7 years OR we’ll flip him for €25-€30m.
Yeah the talent for those players doesn't seem to be the issue but rather being available for selection. That however is a big part of what can make something work out.
Not being fit means that someone else who is likely not as good had to play and that hurts. When it happens too often that really hurts and makes squad planning even harder because you can't really rely on having that person there every match and that means more investment to cover.
Nice to get them presented with Paul
See, I’d dispute both of those things. I think Tomi is the better RB (and CB) and that White was very susceptible to crosses last season. For what was paid, which is basically the top of the market at the time, he’s nowhere near value for money.
As for this season, he doesn’t do enough to combine with Saka, who then gets isolated on the right unless Odegaard drifts over. His crossing is meh and he can’t over- or underlap.
And, again, for the £50M plus wages, it’s a clear failure to me.
That is an interesting take, I disagree and I think that Arteta would agree seeing as he has preferred White to Tomi when given the chance this season.
I think White looks to be a superior player contributing to the attack vs Tomi as well.
I really have a hard time saying White is a failure when he has played a lot, the team has won a lot of points while he has played, he has been a key part of why the team has played well.
He has really converted me from skeptical about his move with his performance over the last 18 months.
Has he? Toni's been injured, and then when healthy has played on the left a lot. White's the fallback option, from what I can see.
This year White has played better than Tomi given the injury issues and playing on the left, but Tomi was superior last season.
And, again, you can't remove the fee and the opportunity cost of it. Spending 50M on him when they had Saliba, with glaring needs in other positions, and then buying Tomi to cover him defensively, just doesn't scream successful.
I would gladly wager a $5 that White is the starting right back ahead to Tomi against West Ham on December 26 (both healthy and all that)
If you would rather pick a different match that is fine with me as well. Maybe Jan 15 against Tottenham after some of the just coming back fixture congestion is sorted.
That's a mug's wager since it depends on Arteta's preference and not what I would do. Given my thoughts on Arteta and his preferences, I'm are you're right, much to my chagrin.
I think that as at least some plausible evidence that the talent is seen as White > Tomi from a guy paid to make that call. I would put that down as a mark in the success factor category
So that the guy who made the call backs his own decision is considered a marker of success? Not sure I’d agree with that.
Yeah for the first 9 weeks of the season when White and Zinchenko were healthy Tomi was healthy and on the bench. I would take that as a signal that Arteta prefers White to Tomi given the choice between the two when healthy.
Was Tomi superior last year? I don't really know, they played different positions so it is really hard to make a comparison. I do think that both were quite good when they played last year.
As for the fee I think that colors my thought on expectations for the player. For White that means I expect him to be a regular starter and to perform at a level that corresponds to that and he has. He has played alot and he has looked good when he played.
For the opportunity cost, there is always one because there could have been other choices made, ala Saliba. That does quickly go into counterfactual world where we can only speculate on what might have happened. Maybe Saliba comes in and isn't at this maturity level and is exposed, maybe he comes in and is the exact same good player and that money is spent elsewhere.
I think Tomi is more the reflection of not trusting Bellerin/Cedric/AMN on RB vs not trusting White, especially as White is being preferred to him.
I don't think Tomi was healthy at all to start the season. He was injured over the summer and missed the Palace match due to injury. Then was on the bench, but I don't think he was actually fit, from what I remember and contemporaneous accounts.
I think he certainly has worked his way back over those 9 weeks. He was healthy enough to start for his country and for Arsenal in the Europa League. So maybe not all but certainly some.
Perhaps. But could also see an issue where not playing White, after the gyrations with Saliba, could have become an issue. Tomi, given his fee and positional flexibility, is more expandable.
Also on the injury front, it feels there’s a difference between a player who misses months because some oaf smashed his ankle in a match (GJ) and a player who plays three weeks, misses four weeks, plays three weeks etc (OZ)
Yeah there probably is and that is likely something that would show out the longer a player is with a team. There is potentially something to the style of player that maybe invites that ala jack wilshere but still hard to say.
Not sure how Ben White is a success given the fee paid and he’s playing — in my opinion — barely acceptable at RB having been dislodged by his technical predecessor. If Arsenal had a healthy LB would White be starting over Tomi?
And while you can argue Salian’s loans were successful for his development, he probably spent one year too many in France, which led to the unsuccessful White signing.
I’d say success because he looked good last year as a CB and he has been impressive as a RB this year displacing the other guy that we just bought.
As for Saliba, that’s a hard counter factual. Can’t say for certain what maybe happens but we do know that right now he looks very good and maybe that doesn’t happen without the loan. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Great Article!
would offer slight pushback on Sambi. We signed him for a modest fee and relatively low wages. He’s played a lot of minutes for us and has generally done okay. Perfect squad player for the Europa league version of Arsenal. If we sell him this summer for anything near what he bought him for (which is possible!)then I think you have to put it down as a success.
I also think the “heir apparent to Partey” discourse was more of a fan construct than something the club ever said or expected.
There are like 4 players in the world on the Partey level. Expecting a 20 year old from the Belgian league to develop into that was always a long shot so I think he needs to be judged based on his fee, wages, production/minutes, and sell-on fee and in that context he looks a decent signing.
Yeah I think that fair and I do think it might be a bit harsh. I do feel I am higher on Sambi than a lot of people but still think it’s probably right that he’s a deep squad player.
My one thought is that looping in injury issues may be unfair for players who didn’t have a track record of those before the signing. Partey for example played 30+ league matches the three seasons prior to the transfer and therefore I don’t consider the transfer itself a failure. If you do a similar analysis in the future it may be worth differentiating players with previous availability issues versus those who developed them afterwards.
The reason I would say it is fair to do so for the same reason that I think it is fair to say that Willian and Pepe were failures even if their statistical stats record before the move showed that they should produce a level much higher than they did at Arsenal.
This isn't to say that they SHOULD have known but it is something that has hurt the team and made these transfers not a success.
Fair enough, I guess it depends if the purpose of the exercise is to evaluate decision making or results. I suppose I thought it was the former.
Agreed that I don’t think we should disregard transfers from the early stages of their partnership, but if the question is whether the pair deserve trust, looking at some of the early signings probably doesn’t make sense.
I’m more curious about the post-Raul signings, but even that feels like a somewhat arbitrary cut-off. Was Big Gabi a post-Raul signing because he signed his contract two weeks after Sanllehi left? Because there almost certainly was contact prior to that, right?
What’s surprising to me is how many of the Emery / Raul / Edu signings were actually good. The tremendous size of the Pepe flop skews that.
Yeah drawing a line is very hard, Edu has been around longer but how big of a hand he had in decision making is unclear. Same with Arteta recently, we assume he has some to maybe maybe quite a lot but how much exactly? Can't say with a lot of certainty.
Surprised at how Sambi’s chart looks. Way more filled out than I expected it to be.
I know it doesn’t work like this, but if KT, Partey, Tomi, and Zinchenko were consistently fit they would all be clear successes. I’m not in love with KT either, but he’s a solid Top 6 LB who will stick around for 6-7 years OR we’ll flip him for €25-€30m.
Yeah the talent for those players doesn't seem to be the issue but rather being available for selection. That however is a big part of what can make something work out.
Not being fit means that someone else who is likely not as good had to play and that hurts. When it happens too often that really hurts and makes squad planning even harder because you can't really rely on having that person there every match and that means more investment to cover.
Oh totally agreed there. Just more so saying it as those “Failures” may be less about lack of Talent ID by MA and Edu, and more just bad luck.
Yeah on the talent part sure, maybe less so on not getting that priced into the fees.