Cannon Stats
Cannon Stats - The Analytics Podcast
Expecting Goals with Michael Caley

Expecting Goals with Michael Caley

I am happy to bring you a special edition of the Cannon Stats podcast talking to a returning guest


He is here to talk about his new newsletter Expecting goals, which looks to take a break from the week-to-week view and dedicate time to studying a particular question that is underappreciated or is something that we “know” or “assume” to be true but don’t have a good data to say how much or to what degree or when these things from maybe nothing to something.

We have a wide-ranging discussion but the later part talks about the first study that has been published looking at substitute effects.

Expecting Goals
Substitute Effects Study: Part I
This is the first edition of the Expecting Goals newsletter. If you want to know more about what Expecting Goals is, check out my introductory post. It is a truism in soccer analytics that there is a “substitute effect” where players score goals at higher rates when they come on as substitutes than when they start matches. This effect extends to other forms of attacking performance, from shots assisted to ball progression…
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This is something I think is very interesting and something that on a player basis we discount but aren’t really sure how much (now we will have a better idea and I will absolutley be borrowing this). This also leads to further questions about what teams do in the face of these substitution effects and is that actually optimal.

I have done a little bit of looking at this but like after everytime I talk with Mike, I always feel like there is so much more to try and uncover.

Have a listen, consider subscribing, and let us know what you think.

Cannon Stats
Cannon Stats - The Analytics Podcast
Thoughts and analysis on Arsenal and the football (soccer) world at large.