Think about this. Before the trade window opened if we recruit so that 15 people get 40% of the minutes, that could be resting Saka, Partey, and White to have them mentally sharp and reducing the chances of carrying a niggle into the runout.
City are the benchmark whether we like it or not, they have been the dominant team for 6 or 7 years......
If you look at what Pep does with player minutes, the vast majority of his players get circa 2000 PL minutes.
That’s what most top players will be happy with, it seems to the be the contentment sweet spot. This staves of fatigue, potential injury, keeps them mentally fresh and on their toes.
It was abundantly clear Arsenal were exhausted come the run in.....first half of season no problem fresh fit and flying. Things start to break when pressure is applied. At this point physical and mental fitness make a huge difference.
I’m not with the narrative that we need to rotate more like I said it’s more nuanced than that it’s who you rotate and when. City have had the squad to do that with starting 11’s and in game.
Football isn’t about a first 11 anymore, City have changed the game I’m afraid.
I love the way you've managed to shift the conversation away from lazy takes with these stats and explanation.
Less rotation is...less important than the players who come in when rotation does happen being better. Kiwior or Timber as fill-in rather than Holding might win the title. Having better options off the bench might win the title. Etc.
With all that said, the gap from 12 to 13.6 is huge in the grand scheme of things, in my opinion. Having just two more "trusted" players compared to last season could be the difference maker!
Good summary, we are going to have agree to disagree on this one..:..
If we have designs on winning the PL which really means defeating City, then we need 16/17 elite or near elite players with only a handful playing more than 2000 minutes. It’s also worth noting that the minutes in most cases correlate to the starts for example Grealish played 28 games for his 2063 minutes.
Dias, Stones, Ake, Walker all played less that 2000 PL minutes, only Akanji played more than that across their back line. On the basis of probability alone this reduces the chances of injury and fatigue.
It’s super clear Mikel is building the squad this way. There will be games where we are expected to win that Mikel will rest players, and he will now have the player personnel to do so without materially weakening the team.
Based on the squad he is building I expect to see less minutes by players on average........with a few notable exceptions, Declan being one of them. Be interesting to see what Mikel does, I don’t think it will be the same as last season. His last presser was a strong hint at that. Evolution is on the way which is exciting
I mean that’s just not what title winning teams have looked like. On average teams in 1-2 have had 7-11 (avg 9.8) players on 2k or more minutes in the league. I think Arsenal will need Ramsdale, Saliba, Gabriel, White, Rice, Odegaard, Saka, Martinelli, Jesus to get there to make a challenge again
Good article.....however in this analysis I don’t think the data at the top level, the level of the analysis done tells the true story, rotation is far far more nuanced.
Rotation defo hurt us last season in respect of our top players. The ability to rotate, Ødegaard, Saka, Martinelli, Partey, Saliba and Gabriel in the PL is key here.
Rotation, if you have the players, has a number of benefits. It reduces the chance of injury (read Saliba), it keep players fresh and generates desire to get back on the pitch ( read Saka and Martinelli). I’m
Also convinced Partey came back from the African Nations with an injury.
So let’s just draw 2 comparisons to illustrate the point. Saka played 3200 PL minutes with Martinelli playing 2800. Now let’s look at their City counterparts. Bernardo Silva was closest to them with 2200 minutes with Grealish and Mahrez on 2000 minutes. Our boys played circa 10 games more PL games than their City counterparts.
Now I know City competed in all the cups and the CL so that needs to be factored in BUT, it was clear for all to see that both Gabi and Bukayo were exhausted come the last part of the season. Ødegaard played 700 more minutes than KDB for example.
So whilst I do see the merit in this analysis when one delves into the detail and into specific key players the data in my view tells a different story, if we could have rotated Saliba more would he have suffered the injury he got, who knows, but statistically he was less likely to get injured for all sorts of reasons had we been able to rest him.
Love what Cannonstats are doing really makes us think.....
I’m not sure it really makes a difference in an injury like Saliba’s, that’s didn’t seem to be an overwork issue and if he played 3 -4 less matches between august and December that really changes things. He had already been rotated in 4 of 6 group matches. That unfortunately seemed like something that was bound to happen.
It’s easy to say in hindsight we should rotate but in reality the level of the Premier League is so high resting more than 1 player is really hard and those points count the same.
Rotation is also not a guarantee of players not getting injured with Partey a great example. He was given as close as possible to the one match a week treatment and he has repeatedly broken down.
I think City is kind of the wrong barometer here. They are kind of a special case with their ability to stockpile talent. Look at Liverpool, they ask Salah to play 50+ and 4k minutes and it was the same with Mane.
If Arsenal are going to follow that are we really okay with Vieira/ESR/Nelson getting 2-2.5k minutes? I think that’s probably ~1k each too much most likely.
I think Arsenal’s best rotation is probably going to be leaning heavily on 12 outfield players and looking to get some end of match rest at 65-70 minutes and maybe doing some spot rest where 1-2 guys get rest every month.
If Arsenal do rotate more I think that’s an admission they aren’t trying for the title unfortunately.
Think about this. Before the trade window opened if we recruit so that 15 people get 40% of the minutes, that could be resting Saka, Partey, and White to have them mentally sharp and reducing the chances of carrying a niggle into the runout.
If Arsenal have another 60+m for a right winger I would love it
City are the benchmark whether we like it or not, they have been the dominant team for 6 or 7 years......
If you look at what Pep does with player minutes, the vast majority of his players get circa 2000 PL minutes.
That’s what most top players will be happy with, it seems to the be the contentment sweet spot. This staves of fatigue, potential injury, keeps them mentally fresh and on their toes.
It was abundantly clear Arsenal were exhausted come the run in.....first half of season no problem fresh fit and flying. Things start to break when pressure is applied. At this point physical and mental fitness make a huge difference.
I’m not with the narrative that we need to rotate more like I said it’s more nuanced than that it’s who you rotate and when. City have had the squad to do that with starting 11’s and in game.
Football isn’t about a first 11 anymore, City have changed the game I’m afraid.
I agree
I love the way you've managed to shift the conversation away from lazy takes with these stats and explanation.
Less rotation is...less important than the players who come in when rotation does happen being better. Kiwior or Timber as fill-in rather than Holding might win the title. Having better options off the bench might win the title. Etc.
With all that said, the gap from 12 to 13.6 is huge in the grand scheme of things, in my opinion. Having just two more "trusted" players compared to last season could be the difference maker!
Does seem as though the “70%” bracket is trending lower from earlier years.
Good summary, we are going to have agree to disagree on this one..:..
If we have designs on winning the PL which really means defeating City, then we need 16/17 elite or near elite players with only a handful playing more than 2000 minutes. It’s also worth noting that the minutes in most cases correlate to the starts for example Grealish played 28 games for his 2063 minutes.
Dias, Stones, Ake, Walker all played less that 2000 PL minutes, only Akanji played more than that across their back line. On the basis of probability alone this reduces the chances of injury and fatigue.
It’s super clear Mikel is building the squad this way. There will be games where we are expected to win that Mikel will rest players, and he will now have the player personnel to do so without materially weakening the team.
Based on the squad he is building I expect to see less minutes by players on average........with a few notable exceptions, Declan being one of them. Be interesting to see what Mikel does, I don’t think it will be the same as last season. His last presser was a strong hint at that. Evolution is on the way which is exciting
I mean that’s just not what title winning teams have looked like. On average teams in 1-2 have had 7-11 (avg 9.8) players on 2k or more minutes in the league. I think Arsenal will need Ramsdale, Saliba, Gabriel, White, Rice, Odegaard, Saka, Martinelli, Jesus to get there to make a challenge again
I agree we will Scott, just not playing 3000 minutes of PL. football. Most of the City players you would consider elite player a little over 2000 mins
Good article.....however in this analysis I don’t think the data at the top level, the level of the analysis done tells the true story, rotation is far far more nuanced.
Rotation defo hurt us last season in respect of our top players. The ability to rotate, Ødegaard, Saka, Martinelli, Partey, Saliba and Gabriel in the PL is key here.
Rotation, if you have the players, has a number of benefits. It reduces the chance of injury (read Saliba), it keep players fresh and generates desire to get back on the pitch ( read Saka and Martinelli). I’m
Also convinced Partey came back from the African Nations with an injury.
So let’s just draw 2 comparisons to illustrate the point. Saka played 3200 PL minutes with Martinelli playing 2800. Now let’s look at their City counterparts. Bernardo Silva was closest to them with 2200 minutes with Grealish and Mahrez on 2000 minutes. Our boys played circa 10 games more PL games than their City counterparts.
Now I know City competed in all the cups and the CL so that needs to be factored in BUT, it was clear for all to see that both Gabi and Bukayo were exhausted come the last part of the season. Ødegaard played 700 more minutes than KDB for example.
So whilst I do see the merit in this analysis when one delves into the detail and into specific key players the data in my view tells a different story, if we could have rotated Saliba more would he have suffered the injury he got, who knows, but statistically he was less likely to get injured for all sorts of reasons had we been able to rest him.
Love what Cannonstats are doing really makes us think.....
I’m not sure it really makes a difference in an injury like Saliba’s, that’s didn’t seem to be an overwork issue and if he played 3 -4 less matches between august and December that really changes things. He had already been rotated in 4 of 6 group matches. That unfortunately seemed like something that was bound to happen.
It’s easy to say in hindsight we should rotate but in reality the level of the Premier League is so high resting more than 1 player is really hard and those points count the same.
Rotation is also not a guarantee of players not getting injured with Partey a great example. He was given as close as possible to the one match a week treatment and he has repeatedly broken down.
I think City is kind of the wrong barometer here. They are kind of a special case with their ability to stockpile talent. Look at Liverpool, they ask Salah to play 50+ and 4k minutes and it was the same with Mane.
If Arsenal are going to follow that are we really okay with Vieira/ESR/Nelson getting 2-2.5k minutes? I think that’s probably ~1k each too much most likely.
I think Arsenal’s best rotation is probably going to be leaning heavily on 12 outfield players and looking to get some end of match rest at 65-70 minutes and maybe doing some spot rest where 1-2 guys get rest every month.
If Arsenal do rotate more I think that’s an admission they aren’t trying for the title unfortunately.