It's way too early to be freaking out about Arsenal's lack of buisness

Arsenal are not moving especially slow in the market right now compared to history

I started writing this post earlier in the week before I was planning on taking some time off. I maybe bought into the pessimism in the Arsenal online world too much and believed that Arsenal would not actually get any business done.

As I re-write this on Wednesday, that might still be the case for the official business, but it does look like things are starting to move pretty significantly and Arsenal will have things very close to officially done on one, if not two deals (with a third not far behind)

There was an old-fashioned whirl wind of a transfer for Christian Norgaard, where we went from a rumor, to a bid, to a done deal in the matter of hours.

Up to this point, and even still now it is safe to say people are getting antsy about Arsenal’s speed of closing deals (especially in attack) and there is significant worry and a loss of trust that the club will be able to do what is required to position the team to keep pushing for the big honors that they we all want to see the team win. Arsenal might have players lined up but the goal posts will move and it will be that they are not moving fast enough for the RIGHT positions and they are doing things out of order.

This is aggravated by several of the team’s rivals being especially quick to get deals closed early in the transfer window.

• Manchester City have confirmed the signings of Rayan Ait-Nouri, Marcus Bettinelli, Rayan Cherki, and Tijjani Reijnders.

• Liverpool have confirmed the signings of Giorgi Mamardashvili, Jeremie Frimpong, Armin Pecsi, and Florian Wirtz.

• Chelsea have confirmed the signings of Dario Essugo, Estevao Willian, Liam Delap, and Mamadou Sarr.

Outside of these teams, it hasn’t been nearly as busy in the Premier League and for Manchester City and Chelsea they had the Club World Cup that acted as a bit of an early deadline to get players into the team for and Arsenal did not. That doesn’t help with the FOMO because you still tend to focus on the teams doing stuff even if they more outliers in the larger picture.

How close Arsenal feel to the title, combined with the clear areas to improve in the squad, plus the moves above done by rivals have combined to ratchet up the anxiety and there is a pretty large contingent of the fanbase (at least online) that is accurately described by this meme right now:

The part of this that is a bit puzzling to me is that this is not out of the ordinary at all for Arsenal or really most transfers that are completed in a summer window.

Going back to the 2016 season, Arsenal have only completed 4 signings in June out of 43 total signings over that period. These were the signings that were made:

• Kai Havertz - June 28, 2023

• Fábio Vieira - June 21, 2022

• Matt Turner - June 27, 2022

• Marquinhos - June 10, 2022

June is just not typically a period where business gets done and that is very often the time where this newsletter is still doing post-mortems of the previous season and getting an idea of what targets should be added to the lists and which players might be on their way out. With Arsenal’s season effectively over earlier that got pushed forward and perhaps that made it feel like for us fans that the transfer business should have as well.

Historically, July has been the busiest period for Arsenal over the last 9 summers, with a bit over half of the moves happening in this month. This is typically also where the biggest transfers have been completed in the recent history with these deals having a bit more complexity that pushes them a bit later.

This season it very well could be similar with it looking like the moves for Martin Zubimendi, Norgaard, and Kepa Arrizabalaga on track to be completed and wrapped up at the beginning of next month. That would put the three players on track for a full pre-season with the club.

These are the key dates for Arsenal this off season and where it falls in relationship to the end of the transfer window:

• July 19 Arsenal leave for their pre-season tour of Singapore and Hong Kong, 44 days before the transfer window closes

• July 23 Arsenal play AC Milan in Singapore, 40 days until transfer window closes

• July 27 Arsenal play Newcastle United in Singapore, 36 days before the transfer window closes

• July 31 Arsenal play Tottenham in Hong Kong, 32 days before the transfer window closes

• Weekend of August 9/10 Arsenal are planning to host Athletic Club in the Emirates Cup, 23/24 days before the transfer window closes

• August 17 Arsenal face Manchester United away in the Premier League, 15 days before the transfer window closes

• Weekend of August 23 Arsenal host Leeds United in the Premier League, 9 days before the transfer window closes

• Weekend of August 30 Arsenal face Liverpool in the Premier League, 2 days before the transfer window closes

In an ideal world, Arsenal would have the majority of their business wrapped up before they have left for their pre-season tour. That would be a bit more than 3 weeks to get the work done. Looking at things as they stand the shopping list for the team would have looked something like this:

• 🔘Striker

• ✅Defensive Midfield

• 🔘Left Wing

• ✅Defensive Midfield backup

• ✅Goalkeeper backup

• 🔘Defensive cover

• 🔘Attacking cover

Already it looks like the two new defensive midfielders will be in for that time, plus the backup keeper. Arsenal are by all reports pushing hard for the striker to be completed before too late in July. The team has also been linked with the potential defensive cover in Jorrel Hato and Cristhian Mosquera. It is shaping up right now to be quite likely that business will be done in a timely manner.

It wouldn’t be too detrimental to the team and player if the business is done ahead of the Emirates Cup to get some reps in training and a potential match completed. This is a helpful view of what things might look like with a couple behind closed door (BCD) friendlies and plenty of training time.

https://x.com/AFCFixtureNews/status/1937794852772520429

Looking at the historical record again, this is when most of the transfers recently have been completed.

Seeing things broken out like this is helpful for me and hopefully it was good for you too dear reader.

I understand people are nervous about Arsenal and it does never feel like the team has ever fully completed a squad to what the fans want and that creates scars and trust issues.

I am still optimistic that many of the needs for the squad are addressed and that they will be done before the season kicks off, and I would not recommend panic. If it is August 16th and the business is still stalled (I think the left-wing signing will be something that goes into mid/late August so it is a bit of an exception to me on this), I might join the ranks of the anxious, but it is not time for that yet.