Liverpool vs Arsenal: The Debrief

Arsenal fall short in a closely fought match and the media ecosystem freaks out

I came into this match wanting to measure Arsenal up against Liverpool and how the teams looked as they are set for what hopefully will be a season long battle for the Premier League title.

I can help but come away feeling more positive about Arsenal here even though that isn’t the story of the match in the general consensus.

This match was potentially there for Arsenal to win and they didn’t take it, but this was a team that came into the house of the Champions and had more time where they were on top of the game but one that was ultimately very tightly contested.

There isn’t a team that is better than Arsenal in the Premier League right now and they should be well set up to put together a good season with 35 big matches to go.

Liverpool vs Arsenal: The Graphics

Liverpool vs Arsenal: The Debrief

9 - Shots for Liverpool, the fewest that they have had in a home match since February 2025

0.3 - Expected goals from Liverpool, the fewest that they have had in a home match since March 2021

0.04 - Expected goals per shot, the lowest average shot value that they have had in a home match since March 2021

15 - Touches in the box for Liverpool, the fewest that they have had in a home match since October 2024

6 - Passes completed from open play into the penalty area completed, the fewest that they have had in a home match since April 2024

78 - Touches in the final third for Liverpool, the fewest that they have had in a home match ever in the FBref database that goes back to the 2017-18 season

It is funny to see the stats above and then see the reactions after the match from the media on which team came to win and deserved to win (it is a bit funny to see that used here and not getting nearly the same reaction as my tongue-in-cheek graphic).

This is what the defending champions did at home, a place that they lost one in regular time all of last season. They have lost just 13 matches at home in the last half decade in all competitions. They came into this match the favorites to win by the betting odds and the people that publish odds.

This is a team that was missing their right back but gave them an opportunity to squeeze all eleven of their best players on the pitch, including the reigning golden boot winner plus a new £80 million striker and a £116 million British transfer record (well at least for a bit).

This a team that is known for the lethality of their attack and that they will lean into it even if that comes at the expense of being more open to being counter attacked. Their principles are that they are a team that goes for it.

Not here. Not against this Arsenal team.

Yet, it is Arsenal that have come away as the team that ruined the game. That didn’t go for it. That was too conservative, don’t even get me started on the supposed smart people who called this a 4 center back and a 3 defensive midfield lineup, because that just exposes you as a person who doesn’t really follow or watch the players here and want to make a cheap joke.

That’s crazy to me. Arsenal were without numerous key players due to injury (Arsenal have 5 senior players injured and lost William Saliba in the first 5 minutes) but with the business that they have done this summer it still felt possible that this team would be able to compete here.

Arsenal did exactly that here and the difference between the teams was a spectacular free kick where Liverpool executed one of the 2-3 moments that they had and Arsenal failing to execute on the 3-5 moments that they had.

Here is what Arne Slot said about the match in his post-game comments:

If we play this game 10 times more in the same fashion then I think it’s eight times a draw, we win it one time and Arsenal wins it one time because it was an uneventful game, which is something sometimes positive as well because both teams were really good in rest defence and in defending. But, I think normally Arsenal and us are able to create more chances during a game, but it tells you also something about the structure and the amount of discipline both teams have without the ball. Then you need a moment of magic, which we got from Dominik, and that resulted in us winning a game that, like I just said, normally would have ended in a draw.

I appreciate that he is pretty realistic about this after the match, and it makes me respect him quite a bit for his candor and humility here. I don’t know if it is an 8 draw, one win a piece distribution of outcomes if you played it 10 times but that’s not so far off and this being a draw is absolutely the most likely outcome from the performance here.

My “deserve” to win meter, actually does try and put an actual number on these types of things and this is what it comes out with for this match:

This would see this finishing as a draw 5 times, Arsenal winning 3, and Liverpool winning 2.

Neither team created a clear-cut chance here that was actually taken as a shot (Liverpool had a big one that was offside on a rebound, Arsenal had Eze in on goal but he didn’t take the shot and looked to draw a penalty instead on soft contact in the box.)

If you take these values and do a simulation of the outcomes it looks like this:

Not far off the deserve to win meter (that has a bit on possession and on shot placement) at Arsenal winning 2, Liverpool winning 2 and the other 6 being a draw.

When two closely matched teams face off in a low scoring sport like this, it is the tiny margins that make the difference and that was again the case here.

Arsenal’s attack still isn’t firing

0.4 - Expected goals for Arsenal in this match, this is lowest total that they have created in an away match since November 2021 (also against Liverpool) and the lowest since their 1-0 win against Manchester City in October 2023 (a match that followed a similar pattern but had very different narrative because Arsenal got the goal there).

4.9 - Total expected goals for Arsenal in the opening 3 matches of the season, 1.63 per, ranking 4th in the Premier League so far this season

10 - Shots total for Arsenal in this match

38 - Shots total for Arsenal in the opening 3 matches of the season, 12.7 per match with the 18 against Leeds giving a big lift, ranking 4th in the Premier League so far this season

6 - Shots from open play in this match

22 - Shots from open play in the opening 3 matches of the season, 7.3 per match ranking 11th in the Premier League so far this season

0.3 - Expected goals from open play in this match

1.45 - Expected goals from open play in the opening 3 matches of the season, 0.48 per match ranking 19th in the Premier League so far this season

Arsenal’s ability to get shots here is again a major issue for the team. Three times played this season and that is twice where it has been 10 shots or fewer and a struggle to create clear openings from open play (just 2 big chances, only Aston Villa have fewer this season).

This lack of shooting volume was a problem for Arsenal last season as well; Arsenal had 7 matches in the Premier League where they took 10 or fewer shots on their way to finishing 5th in total shots.

In this match, Arsenal were not the team that sat back and didn’t try to attack here but they still struggled again to create the open looks at goal. Part of this was that Liverpool did drastically change what they had done against Bournemouth and Newcastle to not allow the same kind of opportunities to Arsenal. Still Arsenal put up another 0 goals scored performance and that is not a situation that is going to win you a lot of points.

42 - Times in the Premier League that Arsenal have failed to score under Mikel Arteta

15 - Times in the Premier League that Arsenal have failed to score since the start of the 2022/23 season. Liverpool have 12 occurrences, Manchester City have 13 occurrences over that same time period. (I honestly expected it to be significantly more for Arsenal, that’s not nearly as bad as I thought and it goes against how I thought the story would go and as a writer that is quite disruptive. I am including it here because I really don’t try and cherry pick information.)

Arsenal have invested heavily in the attack this season, adding Eberechi Eze, Viktor Gyokeres, and Noni Madueke, all while not losing in players in attacks to other clubs. These players are working their way into the team, but they were almost certainly bought to address the struggles and move the team from the middle of the pack into a range that is closer to the teams that they want to compete against.

Last season Arsenal ranked 8th in open play xG and were over 0.5 xG per match behind Liverpool and nearly 0.25 behind Manchester City and Chelsea.

That’s nearly the difference between 20 goals to Liverpool and 10 goals to City and Chelsea that Arsenal would have to find elsewhere. Arsenal do make up for it a bit by also being incredibly stout in defense, but it is still a hurdle for the team to try and overcome.

Player graphic quick hits

The stocks are at all time lows. Tough day for Martinelli and it feels like a large portion of the fanbase has given up on him.

Probably the best attacker on the day for Arsenal.

A surprise inclusion in the team, couldn’t make the same impact that he did in the two matches last season against Liverpool.

He was everywhere in this match for Arsenal.

Not a day where he got a ton of service, a couple runs missed and a couple runs not made. He did not trouble Ibrahima Konaté much at all here.

The fellow new striker on the other side didn’t fair much better here. Moving to the PL and facing up some of the best center backs is hard.

I am going to leave it here today; it is a holiday and transfer deadline day so there are other things on people’s minds today. It’s a disappointing result for Arsenal but overall, I am not down on this team after this result. In fact I come away feeling the opposite about this team and like we did see more positives from Arsenal here than we did from Liverpool.

It’s a long season ahead still and not every bump in the road is the end of the world.