Martinelli gets isolated

Exploring the reasons why his production is down this season

A couple of weeks ago I did a look at how Arsenal’s front five is doing compared to last season.

The data is interesting but I think the one that most caught my eye was Gabriel Martinelli. Last year he was a revelation exploding from being just a good and promising young player to being a true star player. This was the step many of us had expected and hoped for, so to see him emerge like that, especially in tandem with Bukayo Saka it was really special.

This year, well to put it lightly has not gone as well as planned.

It is not that he has been bad, but his total impact in the team is down significantly. Last he scored nearly a goal every other 90 minutes, from above-average shot production due to his ability to get into excellent shooting positions.

The numbers might have had a bit of air in them compared to his expected goals total but he still looked like a solid threat to be able to add double-digit non-penalty goals.

This season that shot production is way down. He has gone from 2.13 open-play shots per 90 to 1.4 and has seen a corresponding drop in his goals and expected goals.

Most worrying is that it is not just a drop in shot volume, but also a decline in the quality of those shots. His average distance hasn’t changed much (16.2 yards vs 16.6 yards) but the number of shots from central locations is down significantly.

One of my hypotheses for why this might have changed is down to where he is operating this season.

Attacking Half Touches