Martinelli's out, can Arsenal survive?

Here's how Arsenal might play out February and March

The first roll of the dice came up snake eyes.

Arsenal came up empty in its search for a genuine difference-maker in January, and further opted against signing a depth attacker, which was framed by David Ornstein as Mikel Arteta not wanting to “bring in a body.”

The most natural progression of this Murphy’s Law campaign occurred the next match after the window closed, with Gabriel Martinelli’s hamstring injury taking him out of the Newcastle Carabao Cup semifinal and, in an even crueler twist, out at least a month from there.

The news leaves Arteta and Arsenal short on attacking options at least a week into March, a timeframe which only a few weeks ago would surely have included nearly 10 matches. Thankfully, with Arsenal already out of both domestic cups and into the last eight of the Champions League, the next month only includes three Premier League matches - at Leicester, home to West Ham, at Forest - and the first leg of the Champions League round of 16 tie. Martinelli could return for Arsenal’s March 9 trip to Old Trafford, its midweek home leg in the Champions League or the March 16 Emirates match with Chelsea, which itself is followed by an international break. Perhaps it’s too optimistic, but toward the end of that list, you may even be into “Saka back” territory.

But none of that really answers the bigger question - how in the world is Arteta going to get to March 9? Concerns among Arsenal fans about red zones and overuse and hamstrings popping out from under the skin are already running amok, and truth be told not all of it is completely ridiculous.

My best guess for how Arteta weathers this odd period:

There’s been some speculation that perhaps Arsenal will change formation to switch away from using two traditional wingers, but I’ve been around this block before with back fives and what have you. Arteta tends not to change formations then, either, and my expectation is he sticks with his standard 4-3-3, instead starting Trossard, Havertz and either Sterling or Nwaneri across the front.

The other of Sterling or Nwaneri obviously becomes the primary attacking substitute in that scenario, spelling any of the three in either a need-based (injury, extreme fatigue) or strategic scenario. If Kai Havertz came out, any alignment of the three could be used, with frequent interchange throughout.

If a second substitute up front was needed across these four games, I expect we’ve already seen Arteta’s second preference: Kieran Tierney as a left winger of sorts. It’s certainly atypical, but Kieran works as a de facto wide playmaker because of his crossing skill and can definitely help Arsenal protect a lead.

Other options that could be tested out include Zinchenko as a right winger, which was his position early into his late teens/early 20s in Russia and at PSV, prior to his left back conversion at Manchester City. I also wouldn’t totally rule out Martin Ødegaard as the nominal right winger. He has not played so much as a touchline winger in his career, but he has played as a right midfielder in a 4-4-2 for both club and country. So, it’s an option.

I’d also imagine Arteta is taking a close look in Dubai at Ismeal Kabia, the 19-year-old Hale Ender who’s made a few benches this season, as well as Nathan Butler-Oyedeji, the 22-year-old striker. Using either clearly isn’t atop the list of options, but we’ve seen other clubs in dire injury straits similarly rely on the most ready kid available.

The common question from here is “What if another injury?” Well, I’d say if it’s Havertz, you move Trossard or Nwaneri or Sterling inside, the other guy starts the wing spot that’s vacated, every other option moves up a rung. If it’s a winger, the one of Sterling or Nwaneri who wasn’t starting, now is. Once you’re through the seven matches outlined above (or hopefully sooner), Martinelli is back for the April 1 match against Fulham, and it’s quite possible (likely??) Bukayo Saka is, too.

If it’s not clear from the above, let me make it so: This is no one’s ideal, least of all Mikel Arteta’s. But in a sicko sort of way, this almost stress tests Arteta’s “no warm body” idea. Here, he’s lost a starter in Martinelli, and one of the guys he could have realistically loaned in (Tel or Morata) still wouldn’t be starting. Maybe they’d be playing 15-20 minutes from the bench, which isn’t nothing, but at the top end you might get 140 minutes by April 1, when you potentially get Saka and Martinelli back, the former potentially making his return first as a bench piece himself.

As fans have been quick to point out, there are no more rest games left on this fixture list, Arteta will need to win every game he can. So Morata, Tel or the like wouldn’t be getting starts unless they could challenge on a quality-of-talent basis. And, to be frank, they can’t.

Maybe Arteta’s reliance on “his guys” really is a problem here. But before Martinelli’s hamstring betrayed him, he hadn’t played an abnormal number of minutes. At 2,370 played across four competitions, Martinelli is well below other four-competition stars such as Loïs Openda (2,411), Dejan Kulusevski (2,761), Raphinha (2,747) and many others. I haven’t heard much concern about redlining, flogging, overuse and the like for those guys. Those players aren’t cherry-picked, either: They’re just three of the first attacking names from clubs in Europe I happened to check.

Of course, Arsenal do have others who’ve played more minutes. Jurrien Timber, Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Thomas Partey have all certainly played more than ideal. And I’m certain that Mikel Arteta would be the first to say that injuries to Ben White, Riccardo Calafiori, Mikel Merino, Martin Ødegaard, Gabriel Jesus and Bukayo Saka have contributed directly to each of the four being on the pitch more than he’d like.

Whether you take issue with how Arteta has gotten Arsenal to this point or not, he’s done an impressive job absorbing the blow of that long list of injuries (which isn’t even complete) and keeping Arsenal second, within a few controversial decisions of a close title race, in the top three of the Champions League and second in the league for goals. Of course, we’ll continue to debate the transfer strategy until world ends (any day now), but now it’s on him to keep it together for just a few more weeks. Maybe then (lol) luck finally starts working in Arsenal’s favor.