Noni Madueke would be luxury backup but also maybe a sneaky market opportunity

I am not sure I fully understand they why on this from the Chelsea or player side but this would give Arsenal one of the best options for behind Saka in the League

There has been a bit of smoke around a potential move for Chelsea’s Noni Madueke now for a few weeks. I have been a bit baffled by the decision for Chelsea because he has just come off of a good campaign for them and looks to have all of the promise in the world that he could continue to develop with a very high potential ceiling.

If the idea behind Chelsea’s accumulation of all of the young attacking players is buying lottery tickets, why would they be choosing this one as the one to sell given his combination of current production plus potential production.

When I try and make sense of some of the decisions and choices at Chelsea my head just starts to hurt. I can to a certain degree understand the logic behind the moves and the way they have made bets on accumulation of talent early betting enough blossom that they can have a title challenging team but then they do things that defy logic and it just makes me think that they are addicted to player trading and churn in the squad.

This brings us to today where David Ornstein has reported that Arsenal and the player have agreed to personal terms and reported that a potential transfer is progressing with the path cleared to talk with Chelsea about a fee and that is combined with fresh comments from Enzo Maresca after their Club World Cup match where he and the club have seemingly giving their blessing that he can leave:

Noni has been very important for us during this season. Today, again, he has been important. But my message to the players and to the club is that I want just players that are happy to be with us. The ones that are not happy, they are free to go. It's not for Noni, it's for all the players we have. But again, Noni has been very good during the season and very good tonight.

It’s also been rumored that the fee that Chelsea would be looking at for this move is £45m+, with add-ons on top. So that will be kind of the starting point for how we look at it.

This looks like it could be a fast-developing situation so let’s get to know this player a bit more.

Last season Madueke put up pretty strong numbers for Chelsea and from my outside perspective was a player that was key to when they were at their best.

He has just under 43 nineties in the Premier League for Chelsea over the last three seasons for Chelsea and he again has looked quite strong, especially when you start to factor in that these have been his age 20 to 22 seasons.

One of the big things here is the Madueke is a high-volume plyer. He shoots a ton, he dribbles and carries a ton, and lots of Chelsea’s attacks flowed through him.

That does lead to him losing the ball a ton and if things aren’t coming off it will have the actions really stick in people’s minds and become a bit of the focus. For a player of this mold that very often seems to be something that comes up again and again.

It very much reminds of similar kinds of things that would come up around Alexis Sanchez, he had more end product in goals and assists but the high volume and high risk drove people crazy because he looked so wasteful with people remembering all of the times that it didn’t come off.

One thing that I find helpful is looking at how he compared to similar players at the same age. His list of players is a bit mixed but it is full of players that were hot prospects with a potentially bright future.

Not everyone went on to reach their ceilings, but this is a really good list to be on.

Maybe this is a me problem and everyone else that seems to be turned off by the player is right but I don’t know if I can come to the same conclusion here. I can see that he has flaws and like most players under 23 will make mistakes and be frustrating at times but I think that obscures that he seems to be supremely talented and with all of the tools to reach the highest level.

Looking at that stats dashboard from the last three seasons he pops as at least average in every category and with good numbers in areas that you want a wide attacker to excel.

Looking at each group you can see that there are weaknesses in his game but overall that he really fills out the stats.

Is the Chelsea Association Poisoning the Perception?

I can’t help but wonder if Madueke played for West Ham, or Bournemouth, or Brentford, or Crystal Palace that he would be view differently.

Looking at him compared to other targets that I think would thrill fans he stands up pretty damn well.

He plays in a different position obviously, but Eberechi Eze is a player that has been linked and universally viewed as a potential great signing.

Madueke is four years younger and put up stronger numbers last season than him.

Antoine Semenyo just inked himself a new long-term deal to stay on the south coast but he was a name that excited players as a potential option at the start of the window.

Again, Madueke matches up incredibly well here and on many of the numbers is the superior player.

Earlier in the window Bryan Mbeumo was a player that Arsenal were considering going after before the alure of a starting role at Manchester United swayed him. He was another player that fans viewed very positively as an option.

This is another one where the advanced stat numbers are pretty stark in favor for Madueke with again him being a younger player as well.

There is the perennially linked Mohammed Kudus who, again I think would be viewed very positively as a backup right wing option by Arsenal fans and how he compares:

I can basically copy paste again here what I have said again and again on how Madueke compares here.

Stripping away the team and comparing him to other players it is hard to view this as anything other than something that is heavily tied to the Chelsea link.

I understand that Arsenal buying from Chelsea is annoying but in my view Arsenal have generally gotten pretty solid value in these deals (Luiz, Jorginho, and Havertz) with a few flops (Willian and Sterling) and the convivence that it provides to players of not needing to massively disrupt their lives moving to a new city or Country is going to mean that it will remain attractive.

It would be bad process to simply view a deal as bad because of what team that they come from.

Final Thoughts

The big sticking point for me on this deal is that I don’t know if this is really the most important place to be dedicating time and money.

Arsenal are clearly in the market for a striker and a left winger. Both of these look to be quite expensive potential signings. They also look to be interested in a potential additional midfielder with the Eze links going on at the same time.

I can imagine that the team would love to have real depth and an option to be able to backup Bukayo Saka but is that really the top of the list this offseason? It isn’t for me but perhaps the club see it differently, they have been linked with Leroy Sane and Mbuemo already this window and maybe they seriously want to figure out ways to make it so Saka isn’t needed to play 90% of all of the minutes.

This is where I come down on this feeling like a real luxury signing but that doesn’t make it a bad signing.

Madueke would be one of the strongest backup/rotation players for a right wing spot that any team in the world could call upon and it would make Arsenal’s depth at that position the envy of basically every team.

This is what I wrote when reflecting on Arsenal’s depth in attack at the end of the season:

Versatility is important and incredibly valuable, but it isn’t a total replacement for numbers. This is a lesson I already knew but this season helped to push it up the things to consider in squad building analysis for me. Having players able to cover multiple spots is great and it can help make covering for short-term absences easier with a lower drop in performance. There is still a minimum number of players that are required to make it through a long season with four competitions.

I don’t want to back track now, because when you look at the right wing backup it basically is players that are versatile and can cover it. The team has Saka and then Jesus (an injury question mark), Havertz (a striker), Ethan Nwaneri (a midfielder 8/10 type), Gabriel Martinelli (a left winger), and returning loan players Reiss Nelson and Fabio Viera.

Looking at those options I can kind of get on board a bit more behind the idea of needing that depth.

The big question is at what price point does this transfer make sense?

Looking at the estimates again will be fun:

• Transfer Markt value him at €40m/£35m

• SofaScore value him at €43m/£37m

• Transfer Room value him at €50m/£43m to €75m/£65m

• Based on just similar players €42m/£36m

• My transfer estimate model has him at €60m/£52m to €72m/£62m

That overall comes out to about £47m here and if Chelsea are looking for something in the 45-50m range that’s not an outlandish asking price and if Arsenal can negotiate below that there is a chance for getting very strong value from this transfer.

The other major question is how does this effect the overall budget for the team? The team wants a striker, they want a left winger, they may want more in midfield. The team needs to work on new improved contracts for Bukayo Saka, William Saliba and Ethan Nwaneri.

What does a deal like this do for the overall budget that can be used for those moves? This one is a question that can only be guessed at and even then not very well. I would feel very comfortable that there is a budget that has a limit at some point for Arsenal but I don’t know exactly if it is capable of fitting all of that work inside of it without some other moves or a compromise somewhere else.

If this link goes further, I would absolutely want to try and look very specifically at some of the complaints that critics have of the player on the decision making, effort defensively, and shooting quality but right now I would be pretty comfortable and in favor of this move.

It’s pretty clearly not a popular position to hold but I work hard to try to come my own conclusions independently of their actual popularity.