Discover more from Cannon Stats
Overreactions to Week 1
Matchweek 1 is in the books and let’s go through each result, make some bold proclamations, and think about what from my priors changed from each match.
Overreaction: Burnley looked dangerous at times and Manchester CIty looked a bit susceptible to pressure. In the end Burnley did not have the technical level to run this game plan against the best team in the world and got a couple of Erling Haaland specials.
Manchester City look incomplete and perhaps a bit less hungry if they don’t make some additional moves soon they could be vulnerable.
Burnley are going to play some good soccer but they will still struggle like other teams that have come up from the Championship doing this. I think my stock on them fell a bit more but it is hard to make a snap decision against the defending champions.
Overreaction: A bit sloppy performance but three points for Arsenal. Forest looks like a team that was lucky to escape relegation.
Arsenal were missing the two key players that transformed their play last season and suffered a major injury blow to one of their key signings. They still struggled to break down a low block with at times so all 11 Forest players in the defensive third. It took two moments of magic to establish the lead and from there Arseanl sort of left it stuck in 2nd gear to cruise.
Forest still look like they are lacking of talent, especially when they move away from Taiwo Awoniyi as the striker.
Arsenal’s revamped look is still an open question. Forest’s safety could be in jeopardy.
Overreaction: A classic footballing.
Fulham needed massive luck last season to finish outside the relegation fight, this match against a fellow team that was in that situation doesn’t calm any nerves.
Fulham could be in serious trouble. Everton if they do this against the bottom-half teams should be just fine.
Overreaction: They just keep doing it.
I am supposed to be overreacting so I will try not to caveat too much that it was just Luton but wow, the second half of this match saw Brighton put them under incredible pressure and makes you forget that they are replacing 2/3 of their midfield.
Overreaction: Crystal Palace put together one of the most complete performances of the weekend. They put together some good chances and just all together dominated.
They are potentially losing two key attacking players but this is a very positive sign for Palace not to be pulled into the relegation battle. Sheffield United, yeah they look like they might be in trouble.
Overreaction: I didn’t watch any of this match besides the goals. I think my main takeaway is that West Ham might be in real trouble here. Bournemouth brought in a new coach in Andoni Iraola who did good things with Rayo Vallecano to turn them into a solid team well above their expectation and the early signs suggest he is doing something similar here with Bournemouth with very impressive press and possess numbers.
It’s still a tough battle but numbers like this will help Bournemouth stay above the relegation fray.
Overreaction: UNAI EMERY!!!
I have been really impressed by Aston Villa’s business this summer and all those positive feelings went out the window seeing them get demolished at St. James Park.
They seemed to play directly into Newscastl’s hands, with play that was a bit ponderous and lacking a cutting edge, while not doing nearly enough from stopping Newcastle from being able to play direct at them.
I didn’t love Newcastle’s business and I had underrated them going into the season and that might be one of the bigger misses if this one game turns into a trend. This is probably the second or third most impressive performance relative to expectations from the first match.
Overreaction: The first match of the Ange Postecoglou era and it wasn’t all that impressive.
James Maddision appears to be who everything is going to run through in the absence of Harry Kane and that might put a serious limit on the ceiling of this team until they have time to rebuild to fit Postecoglou’s vision.
This was also a match where Brentford had some big questions, namely how would they handle being without Ivan Toney and well they seemed to not miss too much of a beat.
These looked like too pretty evenly matched upper midtable teams going at it.
Overreaction: A draw was the fair result for this match but that is probably a massive disappointment for Liverpool who had their sights set on moving back into challenging at the top of the Premier League on not just on getting back into the Champions League.
This match also had the undertones of the transfer battles of both teams fighting for Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia, who both ended up going to Chelsea and after watching how easy to seemed for both teams to cut through the middle of the field you can see why both were in for them.
The overreaction here probably falls hardest on Liverpool looking like a team that isn’t ready to return to what they were two-plus seasons ago more than anything positive about Chelsea who still look like they are a mishmash of parts and different ideas thrown together.
Overreaction: This was supposed to be an easy start that got the hype train for Manchester United pushed into overdrive, instead it turned into all sorts of questions about them as a team.
The midfield that they trotted out in this match did not work, they looked like they tried the inverted fullback tactic and it didn’t seem to provide the control that they needed at all. I have seen Manchester United fans downplay this result but if this was my team I would be very worried (hell I was a bit worried about Arsenal playing a similar level of team but playing significantly better than this).
The question is, was this United being bad, Wolves being better than expected (expect at finishing), or a combination of both. Right now I lean towards more United being bad and needing to adjust my prior on them back towards last year where I thought they were like the 6th or 7th best team.
Matchweek 2 Odds
The matchweek starts with a big match for the bottom of the table with two teams both in need of points after opening losses.
The 7am kickoffs are missing a match but still have some interesting matches.
I think of these matches I am must interested in the Wolves vs Brighton match, both teams that impressed me in the first week.
The 9:30am kickoff will be the first of two tasty Saturday matches to end the day with.
Both teams looked off their best last weekend and will want to prove that it was just a fluke. I am really interested if United will be able to slow down the Spurs attack after allowing the second most touches in the box and really struggling to progress the ball against Wolves press.
I expected them to romp and have a tidal wave of hype and instead it has been a match that brought more questions.
Manchester City have hit a little bit of a speed bump with injuries and departures to key players. They will face a very stern test against a very strong Newcastle team.
Sunday kicks off with a pair of teams looking to bounce back after tough losses.
The late Sunday match gives us our first chance to perhaps see the new look Chelsea midfield.
Arsenal have to wait until Monday night to play again and will have the always tough trip to Selhurst Park.
Crystal Palace looked impressive last weekend and have been able to hold on Michael Olise. Arsenal will have some difficult lineup choices with the injury to navigate and it will be really interesting to see how things go an hour before kickoff.
Yee Haw. 🤠