POWER RANKINGS - 2025/26 Opening Rankings

Ranking the Big/Rich Seven Premier League clubs heading into the season

As things progress over the course of the season I will add in teams that have performed well enough to enter the conversation but to start the season off I am going to keep it to just the “Big/Rich Seven” clubs here.

I did a podcast with Mike Goodman of the Double Pivot using the power rankings format to preview the Premier League. It was a great listen and will compliment this quite well.

7. Manchester United

Manchester United 10 Match Moving Average of Goal and xG Performance

Manchester United finished last season in 15th place and that was on the back of a 8th place finish that was flattering to how they had actually performed.

They were not the 15th best team in the League last season but if they had finished in the bottom half that would not have been a massive fluke and would have been a fair reflection of the overall talent level dropping off significantly.

There is a bit of a silver lining in that for much of the second half they were focused more on the Europa League over the Premier League but even looking at the combined data including both it doesn’t drastically improve them from a team that looks solidly midtable.

For the massive spending advantage in wages and transfer fees over their opponents they didn’t have many matches where they were able to perform like that.

The other worrying signal here is that they have gone all in on Ruben Amorin this season and his unique back three system and there is still a question of is he the guy. Looking at the performance over the course of the season there is not a clear signal for where he took over here and turned things around.

The squad coming into the summer was a mess and so far they have spent pretty big to improve, adding three pricy attackers and a young left back.

On paper, I like all of the players that they signed and all of them were to varying degrees linked with Arsenal in the past 8 months. The big questions I have for this was, is attack the spot that they needed to prioritize over all other positions in the squad and did they get the value that they needed here to where they are getting good bang for the buck on the improvement front.

I think the answer to the first question is no I don’t think so. They have a midfield that I think leaves a lot to be desired. Bruno Fernandes appears to be moving backwards from a more attacking midfield role into midfield proper and I have questions if he is robust enough to be part of a double pivot.

They have Kobbie Mainoo who is young and promising but his skill set still seems to be missing ball progression.

Manuel Ugarte was one of their big signings last season and the question mark around him was that same thing, he will win the ball and kick people but can he effectively pass the ball? His first season with United did not point to the answer to that question being yes.

The last major part of the midfield right now is Casemiro but this is not the same player who was a major contributor to winning Champions Leagues at Real Madrid (he also isn’t paired with a Kroos and Modric). Casemiro was never the major ball progressor and that hasn’t really changed as he as aged. He still puts up good ball winning numbers but the guy that could cover world class levels of space is not coming back.

They are linked to Carlos Baleba from Brighton and if they pull that move off I will shut up about the midfield but right now this looks like a major unaddressed issue with the team.

As for the value for money on the attackers, I think that is clearly a no. They have gotten better but they have made what would seem to be a mistake that teams made before we got better with analytics paying top prices for players that have over performed their expected goals.

I am probably higher than many on Matheus Cunha but the fee to get him was probably 10-25% higher than it should have been.

I think that to get the best out of Cunha a team needs to make him the center piece and that is something United can offer him (and one of the reasons I wasn’t sold that it was a good fit at Arsenal). Cunha is a good ball striker and a volume shooter so expecting that he might be a bit better than the underlying xG probably isn’t crazy but what you can almost certainly no expect is that he will double up his xG on a consistent basis and that was a major factor that pushed him to 15 goals last season.

Bryan Mbeumo is another player that Arsenal were linked with but the price that United went to was not in line with what made sense for Arsenal (or most other sane teams). United paid starting Champions League type money for Mbeumo and his track record at Brentford just doesn’t really support that at all.

With Cunha you could make the case that the history did support him being a plus finisher to xG but that is not the case here. His career points to a player that was below his xG and maybe best case it is more Goals = xG. Expecting him to nearly double the output going forward would not be a smart bet.

Overall, United have gotten better but this is still a team that is quite flawed and that will limit how much they can improve this season but that doesn’t look stronger than any of the other midtable teams that they will be fighting with. It also starts them at the bottom of the list here for me.

6. Tottenham

Tottenham 10 Match Moving Average of Goal and xG Performance

Spurs are a weird team, like Manchester United they were not as bad as their position on the final table and they had moved their focus away from the Premier League in the second half focusing on the Europa League.

They did actually win the Europa League and that got them a ticket to the Champions League but not quite like United, their numbers were truly as bad as their position on the table, even if that didn’t match the underlying talent in the squad.

Looking at the overall season performances and you can really see the weirdness clearly. They had some great performances where they performed at a very high level and mixed that with way too many where they were just bad. They also had a bunch of meh matches (with a pretty bad defense).

The story of the season is pretty clear looking at it in sequence.

They started off strong, they got hit hard with injuries and they fell apart in the middle and then switched focus to the Europa League.

This has brought about a change to Spurs who let go of Ange Postecoglou even though he had won them a trophy (showing good process here) and replaced him with Thomas Frank. I am a big fan of Frank and I think that was a smart move overall, I am not certain that Frank can get a team that has lots of talent pushing into the very top spots but he has a track record of being adaptable to the talent at his disposal and building a tough to beat coherent team.

It seems unlikely that the floor would fall out to the extent that it did last season even if he might not have the ceiling that we saw for short spurts under Postecoglou where they did legit look like a team on the borderline of title winning performances.

Pivoting here to talk about how they have changed their squad this summer, I have to say I think it is decent and if some the recent rumors come to fruition could be quite good.

They were able to make the Mathys Tel move permanent and did so at a pretty reasonable fee.

I think that is a good bet on upside but you need to figure out what his actual best position is and get him to develop.

The other really big move they made in attack was adding Mohammed Kudus from West Ham United. He’s long been a player that is rated highly because he has great highlights and dribbles a lot.

He also has the question of what is his best position and if he is actually good (maybe that is just me?).

Overall, I think that this is a decent squad and that it has upside to improve. I think there is still a lot of work to figure out how this all fits together. I can see a world where they do that and Spurs have a season that pushes them to the 60’s points totals.

5. Newcastle

Newcastle 10 Match Moving Average of Goal and xG Performance

Newcastle had a bit of an up and down season but once they sort of figured things out and got healthy they put together a very strong finish to the season.

Their finish to the season would have had them pretty comfortable 4th best playing better down the stretch than Chelsea but they did still have some fragility where they were pretty heavily outplayed at times.

As Newcastle have improved following the takeover by the Saudi investment fund they have added pretty significant talent that has pushed them up the table. Where they are still lacking compared to their peers is that they are not nearly as deep and the drop off between the first choice and the next man up is larger.

When they have been able to play a smaller, settled group of players they have looked very strong and like a team that can match up well against the best. When they have been hit with fixture congestion or injuries that has seen their level drop off.

The business this summer has not done a lot yet to address this major issue.

Elanga is a solid if expensive fit for how they have played at their best, as a fast, direct wide attacker.

Aaron Ramsdale has finally made the move that seemed logical as a place to land when he was on the way out at Arsenal.

They are linked and close with Jacob Ramsey who is another plus athlete that fits the eye of Eddie Howe. His numbers at Aston Villa aren’t great but he was held back in a pretty conservative role that might change with a move to Newcastle.

One thing that hasn’t really changed is that the midfield depth is pretty short. The trio of Bruno Guimaraes, Joelinton and Sandro Tonali has turned into one of the strongest in the Premier League but it is pretty thin beyond this group of three. They have Lewis Miley and Joe Willock but not much else right now.

The other major issue swirling around them and the one that could have the largest impact on the upcoming season is will Alexander Isak still be with them in September. I feel very uncertain about how this ends, Isak seems to be pushing hard but given he is under contract through 2028 the leverage to force Newcastle’s hand should they dig their heels in might not be there.

There is also the difficult problem of actually getting a suitable replacement in that can make it easier for Newcastle to not suffer a major step back this coming season if they decide to go down the selling route. The most obvious replacement was Hugo Ekitike and he is at Liverpool, they pushed hard for Benjamin Sesko but he went to United. They might be left with Nicolas Jackson or Ollie Watkins but finding it tough to get good value with every selling club knowing that they have desperation.

How this one plays out and the rest of the transfer window can see my expectations for them swing pretty wildly.

4. Chelsea