Testing Arsenal's Depth
Testing Arsenal's Depth
Arsenal face 7 games in 22 days, the squad better be ready
The first month of the season has been pretty kind to Arsenal.
Arsenal started with three of their four matches at home, with a full week in between, on top of that they got their transfer business done early to help settle the team ahead of the season. It hasn’t gone perfectly to plan with the long-term injury to Jurriën Timber, Thomas Partey out for a shorter but still extended period and the draw to a ten-man Fulham team.
That easy ride is coming to an end I think it will tell us a lot about the team while shedding light on who Mikel Arteta is as a manager.
Until the next international break Arsenal have 7 matches in the span of 22 days. Four in the Premier League, two in the Champions League, and one League Cup match. This will also feature two very high-leverage matches for Arsenal and their hopes of challenging for the Premier League with a North London Derby and a visit from the defending Champions to end the run.
In the four matches coming Arsenal will be favorites in all but the Manchester City match, they are defending 7.8 expected points with a very realistic expectation that they should come away with at least 9 points. Arsenal are starting this run in 5th place (tied on points but in 5th on GD) but by the end of this run the expectation should be that they are starting to pull away from the pack looking to solidify their spot in second place.
It is crazy to think that this could decide the trajectory of the title challenge but with the expectation that it will take 90+ points to win the League any dropped points along the way feel incredibly consequential.
I feel very good about the level of the squad but things are not without a bit of doubt. There are concerning reports about Bukayo Saka’s Achilles coming out and what sort of depth the team has in that spot. Adam has an excellent breakdown of how much Arsenal have depended on their young talisman.
One of the other nagging worries is that rotation has always been a bit of a question for Arteta as a manager, with many pointing to the ends of season fall-offs as evidence of this. The depth in this team is the best it has been in a long while but it remains to be seen if it can be utilized to calm the lingering doubt.
We have yet to see players like Jorginho, Emile Smith Rowe, or Reiss Nelson for extended minutes (or at all). Fabio Vieira with his performances this season is making the case for more minutes. Eddie Nketiah has filled in exceptionally for Gabriel Jesus while he was out injured and won’t want to find himself forgotten on the bench. There is also Leandro Trossard who has been more involved already and won’t want to see his share of time taken away.
I am a proponent of less rotation than most, and I think the extent that a team rotates a lot is generally a sign that things have gone wrong (injuries or ineffectiveness) rather than a signal for something good. This is borne out in the data where teams that have challenged for the top of the table typically have a core of players that they lean on.
I expect some changes but outside of the League Cup match, I think it might be the type of changes where 2-3 outfield players come in and with some platooning and job sharing with subs later in games.
It is a big month ahead for Arsenal and it was exactly what we hoped to see getting back into the Champions League after all of these years away. A good October last year made me a believer that the team was truly at the level that the good start suggested, this October has the same opportunity.
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Everton Pose an Interesting Threat
Going against the team in 18th place, sitting on one point would not normally be a match that brings worry. You might normally worry more about how big a win might be possible rather than can the team get any sort of a win. I think with Everton I lean much more towards the latter than the former.
Let’s start with the obvious Everton aren’t a good team by any stretch of the imagination that being said they probably are not remotely as bad as 1 draw and 3 losses with a -6 goal difference suggests.
They have produced more expected goals than their opponents in all but one of their matches this season (Aston Villa where they got blown out).
On goal difference, they are tied for 18th, on xG difference they are 12th, excluding penalties they jump to 9th in xG. At an even game state (11v11 with the score tied) they are 5th best with an impressive +0.74 xG difference. They have had some unfortunate sequencing where the other team has seen their shots go in first.
Here are their results so far:
I look at these performances and think in another universe this is 7-9 points instead of 1 and how we are thinking about this trip to Everton is completely different.
The other bogey hanging over Arsenal is that Goodison Park is just not one that has treated Arsenal well. In the Premier League have 12W, 9D, and 10L, over the last decade it is not as friendly with just 2 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses. The last 5 trips have seen Arsenal play poorly coming away with just 1 point with a combined score of 6-2 (6.4 to 4.3 on xG).
There shouldn’t be anything inherently troubling about Everton (some of this was Arsenal also being really far down with back-to-back place finishes and general malaise over four of these years) and it is probably one of the quirks of chance that happens from time to time.
Hopefully, Arsenal can take the opportunity to end this bad run.
Week 5 Odds
After an international break it is so exciting to get back to real games.
Things start with Liverpool going against Wolves. The model and my gut both don’t expect this to be a close one.
There is a full slate of 7am (3pm UK) kickoffs on Saturday with 3 of the “big six” playing in this slot. The match that most interests me is the Manchester United vs Brighton match, Brighton have been the team that has been rated lower by my rating system than where i would put them after watching and this is a big test for if they are truly a Champions League contender or simply in the running for best of the rest.
This is the match where my model (and my gut) most diverges from the betting odds. I am higher on the chances for Brentford to get a result here. I really like their style and setup going against this Newcastle team. I expect that they will be fine to let Newcastle have more of the ball and that generally has seen Newcastle not perform at their best.
Sunday starts with Chelsea with a good chance to get back to winning ways. It doesn’t feel like it but they have the second-best non-penalty xG difference in the Premier League right now.
I have already gone in depth of this match above but hopefully Arsenal can take care of business here.
The final match of the week is Monday Night Football against two teams that could be in the relegation fight. Forest have managed to get two wins already and have looked decent, Burnley are still looking for their first win after coming in with pretty big expectations for a promoted team. This could be an interesting matchup.
🤠YeeHaw. Thanks for reading. I hope you enjoy the weekend.