The Cost Benefit of Oleksandr Zinchenko

A quick dive into the data on what he brings and what he takes away

Oleksandr Zinchenko has become a major talking point coming out of the match against Wolves. Both the Arsecast and the Arsenal Vision Podcast had sections on him and his mistake and if he is worth the trade-off inherent in his game is worth it (both generally came down on yes he is and I think that is right).

Even I had something on this in the debrief.

We got to see the full Zinchenko experience in this match. He was key to the play in buildup and attack but he also showed that with the irrational self-confidence needed to play the way he does also comes with mistakes that can put the team under pressure. Mikel Arteta’s post-match comments seem to match his saying:

“You have to love him how he is. He has strengths and weaknesses and Alex has got many more strengths. This happened, it can happen to any player, we have to learn from it.”

I agree with the sentiment here, Zinchenko is incredibly unique and while he can be a target for opposition attacks and can be loose, what he brings to the team more than puts him into the positive side of the ledger. Even today with some mistakes his play more than made up for it and put him in the black for adding rather than subtracting to the team.

This talk made me want to go further into trying to quantify what he brings and if it is worth it.

This discussion reminds me a lot of the ones that also happened when Alexis Sanchez was with Arsenal and frustrating people with his profligate turnovers in the final third.

That was the initial genesis of my work trying value on-ball actions that ultimately turned into Goal Probability Added and in the end we haven’t really moved too far beyond that as we are still trying to determine the cost-benefit analysis for players who frustrate us.

Starting at the highest level with his stats:

I think my new version of the radar really helps show where he excels. His passing is top-notch, his ability to receive and participate in buildup is up there with the best players, and while he has flaws as a defender one-on-one he still excels at actually putting in a shift to win the ball back.

Compared to other fullbacks he is easily among the elite, with very few able to do the things that he can do.

Now let’s do more of a look inside of Arsenal.

He is one of the highest-volume passers for Arsenal.

While also being one of the key players in ball progression, being key at moving the ball from the back into the final third and into dangerous locations. Not only that, the overall value that he brings is second to no one.

That is all easy enough to see watching the game but what about the negative plays?

Well to look at that I have tried to quantify both negative and positive plays to try and see what players bring to Arsenal.

For positive plays, I have counted plays that on my goal probability added model add 2.5% or more to the team’s chance of scoring (or disrupting the opponent with defensive actions) or are a goal. That seems like a pretty high-impact area and should give a solid definition.

For negative plays, I have counted plays that on my goal probability added model subtract 2.5% or more from a team’s chance of scoring (or add to the other team’s chances of scoring), are classified as an error, or is a foul or dribbled past within 25 yards of goal. I think that this is a good general rule of thumb here.

Here is what the list looks like for Arsenal so far this season:

It is not surprising that Bukayo Saka is far and away the leader for Arsenal, even tho he has the most negative plays, he more than makes up for it with his positive work. A bit surprising is Martin Odegaard second but even off his best he has been a very positive force for Arsenal.

The focus of the player here Zinchenko, he comes in fifth on Arsenal for net outcomes. That is a solid showing and higher than many other players and perhaps surprisingly he does not have that many negative plays on his ledger, at least not compared to his reputation.

I don’t know if this gives a final answer on the question but it does I think illustrate to me that for the things that we can at least try and estimate on a pitch, he is a net positive. Let me know what you think on the poll below.