The final day is here

Arsenal have a chance at winning the title but don't need it to have had a successful season

It has been a 10 month marathon but the final match of the season for Arsenal is here.

It isn’t quite time for post mortems, that will come in the following weeks but it is a good moment to take a second and pause after a very full season.

Even when it is time to look back, I am not going to be playing the what if game for this season. Yes there are a few matches where Arsenal dropped points that were very frustrating and a couple players who made some mistakes in those matches. There are also plenty of good bounces and some good fortune that went Arsenal’s way that turned potentially dropped points into wins.

We are here at the end and Arsenal have improved on last season, Arsenal have beaten my expectations, and they have answered some nagging questions about how they can handle a run in with pressure.

There are some fans that think a trophy is the only way to have a successful season and that is a valid way to think about things but not one that I can do. Winning a trophy, especially the big ones is the goal. They make for special memories and moments, but they are just that and more often than not, if you are not the richest team in the League they will be occasional rather than regular events.

The Premier League trophy will be in the stadium Sunday and that is pretty amazing. They likely won’t lift it but has been an amazing ride.

A little bit of a grab bag of items below.

Arsenal and City Matchups

The games that matter for Arsenal fans (and really the only biggest things to be decided) will be Arsenal vs Everton and Manchester City vs West Ham.

Neither of these matches look like close matchups on paper, so it will potentially need a bit of help from the soccer gods to help make things interesting.

This West Ham team is in 9th place but that is a flattering spot for them. They have the 14th best goal difference and the 17th best expected goals difference. They have punched well above their performances this season and the betting odds and my simulation is pricing that in.

The attack can look okay, especially when they get the counter attack working or have set play chances but overall they look decidedly mid table.

In defense that is not the case. They allow a ton of shots (17th) and don’t do an especially great job of limiting the quality of those shots. They have been bailed out a bit with some positive goal keeping but overall this is not a team that you expect to limit chances.

That doesn’t fill me with hope that West Ham will pull it off.

Arsenal’s match is also probably harder. Everton are lower in the table but they look like a much better team.

This makes Arsenal’s odds worse but still very high to come away with the points needed to keep the pressure on. Everton don’t have anything to play for but I don’t think they should be over looked.

Sean Dyche has done a good job with this team and had it not been for the points deductions for breaking the PSR rules this team would have been much higher up the table.

The overall numbers also reflect a team that looks much better than their table position.

The attack is driven by set plays and direct attacks but it has proven quite effective for Everton.

The defensive numbers have also been pretty strong. They are an active defensive team that don’t make moving the ball against them easy. I am a little surprised to see how often they are allowing direct attacks against them, but it might be part of a strategy to generate more of those looks for themselves as well.

Final Premier League Simulation

With only one match and three outcomes possible for each team the distribution graphic looks a little funny but still does the job of showing just how little possible movement there is left in the table.

The title is still in play but is heavily tilted Manchester City’s way.

Relegation is decided (Luton can tie Nottingham Forest but they aren’t going to make up the 12-goal difference gap up).

Top 4 is decided.

The Europa League, Conference League, and some midtable spots that come with a few million pounds of prize money is all that is left to play for.

It will likely still be a fun final Sunday, but the lack of stakes everywhere else will certainly help to focus only on Arsenal.

VAR thoughts

It has been reported that Wolverhampton has made a request to the rest of the League to vote on whether to keep the Video Assistant Referee system in place.

VAR has gotten a lot of hate but I generally think it has been a marginal improvement for the game. That doesn’t mean that it can’t be better implemented but getting rid of it seems like it would be an unneeded step back.

Many of the criticism leveled at VAR are not exclusive to it or overblown from my perspective. Here is the list that Wolves have included with their proposal to get rid of the system.

- Impact on goal celebrations and the spontaneous passion that makes football special.

I think that this is something overblown. I think that when the ball goes into the back of the net people still have the spontaneous reaction. There is potential break where there is some uncertainty on if it stands or not but for most goals this is still the case. It would be interesting to actually look at the goals and reactions to get an idea of what the actual outcomes are.

- Frustration and confusion inside stadiums due to lengthy VAR checks and poor communication

This is a valid concern and something that should have been handled better form the beginning. I just do not understand why they can’t show the replay in the ground on the screens and then have a quick explanation on the PA from the referee. Keeping the fans in the stadium in the dark is a choice and one that I don’t think was a good one.

- A more hostile atmosphere with protests, booing of the Premier League anthem and chants against VAR

I don’t think VAR was needed to have these things happen and I think it is a faulty assumption to think if VAR goes away that fans won’t still be upset about things and perceived injustice.

- Overreach of VAR's original purpose to correct clear and obvious mistakes, now overanalysing subjective decisions and compromising the game's fluidity and integrity

I don’t think that this is factually true. More often what I see and hear is that people are upset about the threshold for review being too high rather than looking at too many situations.

- Diminished accountability of on-field officials, due to the safety net of VAR, leading to an erosion of authority on the pitch

I think that this is again a stretch, the decision on the field is still the one that carries the most weight. A decision is still made by the referee and if anything they have more accountability because now every decision is looked at further than they would have been previously.

- Continued errors despite VAR, with supporters unable to accept human error after multiple views and replays, damaging confidence in officiating standards

It is a human institution that looks to implement rules that have a high degree of subjectivity in them. The errors and mistakes are a problem that should be addressed but the same people that are making the mistakes are the regular match officials so it does seem that this is more a systemic problem with referee quality than with VAR. I don’t think getting rid of VAR makes this better and probably makes it worse.

- Disruption of the Premier League's fast pace with lengthy VAR checks and more added time, causing matches to run excessively long

Speeding up checks is a good goal. The introduction of semi-automated offsides will go a long way to helping because one of the longest tasks is when drawing the lines for offside is required.

- Constant discourse about VAR decisions often overshadowing the match itself, and tarnishing the reputation of the league

Referee discourse is as old as the game itself. The ability for fans to see high definition replays in slow motion and multiple angles will always mean that these decisions that often have major impacts on the game will be highly scrutinized. I don’t think that this is ever going away, it would just change from VAR to refereeing in general and have more calls that could have been corrected not.

- Erosion of trust and reputation, with VAR fuelling completely nonsensical allegations of corruption

This is another one where I don’t think this is a VAR only problem. The same people that do VAR do the matches, the same accusations of bias, corruption, and conflict of interest don’t go away just because they don’t have a person looking at the replays.

Ultimately, I don’t have super strong opinions on VAR. I don’t think the criticisms are particularly persuasive or suggest things are so bad they can’t have improvements introduced to make things work better.

On net, I think it is a marginal improvement. There are more calls, especially high leverage calls, that end up being judged correctly. The process can be improved, more technology used to help speed up decision making and I think most importantly an increase in the quality of the referees that use the tools and make the decisions.

It will never satisfy everyone because that is impossible with a rule book that has subjective judgement, different thresholds for fouls in different parts of the pitch, and general unwritten rules as a major part of things.

Lots more coverage as the season ends. Enjoy the ride and hope for something beautiful.