It “seems” as if most of our games recently are one goal games—which I use to include a 2-3 against ManU, and a 0-0 against Sporting and a 1-0 against Newcastle—which are actually very different outcomes. Games that seem like single possession games for getting a point, or not getting a point, or getting 3 points. But I’m not sure if I am responding to an underlying truth about football—that most games are close or am I right, and it’s only Arsenal that has this many close games? The last 3 rounds of games in the PL have had 3, 2, and 4 games that were decided by more than one goal. Arsenal has had one game in the last 10 league that was more than one goal difference (Everton), but 5 in the last 16 in all competitions. Are we just overlooking a basic truth about the sport and we should be more accepting of the painful knifes edge of one point games until the season is over? How many games are one goal games because that’s the sport? I appreciate your writing and your general calmness.
I’d theorize without researching at all that the one-goal results and absence of the Sakas etc are linked. But the larger question of one goal games seems like something up Scott’s alley - I know he’s done other similar studies that showed Arsenal did not buck any trends compared to City or Liverpool. And yet I read somewhere that despite all the narrative, nobody’s got more three-goal games some the end of December than Arsenal (don’t quote me, it might be four-goal games). Also find it illustrative that averaging a 1.5-goal win per game is title territory in the PL. So long story short I think it’s mostly psychological
It “seems” as if most of our games recently are one goal games—which I use to include a 2-3 against ManU, and a 0-0 against Sporting and a 1-0 against Newcastle—which are actually very different outcomes. Games that seem like single possession games for getting a point, or not getting a point, or getting 3 points. But I’m not sure if I am responding to an underlying truth about football—that most games are close or am I right, and it’s only Arsenal that has this many close games? The last 3 rounds of games in the PL have had 3, 2, and 4 games that were decided by more than one goal. Arsenal has had one game in the last 10 league that was more than one goal difference (Everton), but 5 in the last 16 in all competitions. Are we just overlooking a basic truth about the sport and we should be more accepting of the painful knifes edge of one point games until the season is over? How many games are one goal games because that’s the sport? I appreciate your writing and your general calmness.
I’d theorize without researching at all that the one-goal results and absence of the Sakas etc are linked. But the larger question of one goal games seems like something up Scott’s alley - I know he’s done other similar studies that showed Arsenal did not buck any trends compared to City or Liverpool. And yet I read somewhere that despite all the narrative, nobody’s got more three-goal games some the end of December than Arsenal (don’t quote me, it might be four-goal games). Also find it illustrative that averaging a 1.5-goal win per game is title territory in the PL. So long story short I think it’s mostly psychological