Transfer target discourse is broken

At this point we're basically doing marketing for our favorite guys

I’m not so naïve as to expect everybody to play nice; I’ve been around Football Twitter, Football Reddit and football everything else for far too long to think that should actually happen.

But every so often, I still find myself a little taken aback at the actual…whatever it is, audacity, ignorance or stupidity…of football fans and their tribalism. A report comes out, battle lines get drawn and they are stuck to until the very end.

This time, the match thrown into the barrel of gasoline was the Athletic’s report that Arsenal are “developing an interest” in Viktor Gyökeres, the goal-happy Swede whose €100 million release clause scared off any would-be suitors last summer, but who could be available for something more like €60m to €70m this next window.

Now, not everyone approaches these things with nuance, I’ll start with that. But some — Hi, I’m Adam, how are you? — have had the gall to point out some concerns regarding Gyökeres, whose age, irregular career path, skillset and record of trouncing cupcakes do make for an interesting debate, at least. Given he’s got 75 league goal contributions in 56.5 league 90s since joining Sporting (17 penalties), some people have naturally laughed at why you’d even for a second question the idea behind signing him.

Full disclosure: My stance is definitely nowhere near “Gyökeres bad,” but I am Team Šeško as things stand, in a hypothetical world where the two cost the same.

With that out of the way, it needs to be said that the way this anonymous person has framed this comparison couldn’t be any less genuine. Not only has Šeško never been a “10 goal a season” striker, but he’s comparing part-seasons by a 21-year-old to full seasons by a 26-year-old. Consider the below:

That’s Gyökeres starting when he joined Coventry versus Šeško’s full career. Now, I could’ve done Gyökeres’s full career too, but that actually would’ve diluted his numbers even more.

The point being, it’s suddenly not so “40 goals versus 10 goals” anymore, is it? Of course not! Because if the facts were presented honestly, the argument wouldn’t be so strong.

Of course, you could argue that one should only consider Gyökeres’s record since joining Sporting, which is where he’s shown the most aptitude for the top levels of football. I personally wouldn’t do that, as I think that’s also where he’s enjoyed the largest skill gap over his opponents, and I also think his having performed well at Coventry is central to any argument for signing him, as it speaks to the track record and success in multiple styles of football argument.

Another thing that really gets glazed over in this broken online discourse: Quality of opponent. A kneejerk reaction to that first sentence would be to say that I’m calling Portuguese clubs bad, and I’m not. But Gyökeres has stacked dozens of goals against clubs in Portugal that likely couldn’t survive even in the Championship.

This season, all but four of his 30 league goals are either penalties or came against the bottom half of the Primeira Liga. For his Sporting career, 15 of his 59 league goals are non-pens against the top half. Three of his six goals in the Champions League were non-penalties against clubs from the big five leagues, whereas none of his five Europa League goals last campaign met those criteria.

I was curious if that was unique or if Šeško would have a similar record, so this morning, I ran a quick analysis of non-penalty goals scored by each of Šeško and Gyökeres since they started playing senior football. That includes 52 non-penalty goals in all competitions for RB Salzburg and RB Leipzig for Šeško and 99 for Gyökeres across time at FC St. Pauli, Coventry and Sporting (I decided to skip the Swedish league goals). Using Club ELO, an admittedly imperfect but solid way to compare quality of clubs across leagues:

• The average ELO for opponents Gyökeres has scored on is 1721, which in England would be equivalent to roughly Sheffield Wednesday. In UEFA competitions that score was closest to Slovakia’s Spartak Trnava. The median value is a bit lower at 1681.

• The average ELO for opponents Šeško has scored on is 1843, which in England is roughly about Sheffield United (LOL). In UEFA comps, that would be Beşiktaş. His median value was a bit higher at 1852.

Interestingly, the gap has widened in recent seasons.

• Since joining Sporting, Gyökeres’s average opponent scored against has an ELO of 1735, very much in line with his career numbers and roughly comparable with Wednesday (still) or Preston North End.

• Since moving to RB Leizpig, Šeško’s typical opponent scored against has an ELO rating of 1922, which in England is closest to Burnley. UEFA-wise, you’re looking at a Shakhtar Donetsk.

One more way to break this out is what the two have produced against the highest levels of competition. Gyökeres has played right around 200 90s at the top level in all competitions (again, excluding Sweden). Šeško has played just over 91. In that time:

• Gyökeres has scored 23 (non-penalty) goals against clubs with ELO ratings of at least 1800, which is roughly Leicester City level. Šeško has scored 33 goals against the same level.

• Gyökeres has scored 12 goals against clubs with ELO ratings of at least 1900, which is basically Leeds. Šeško has scored 19.

• Finally, Gyökeres has scored 11 goals against clubs with ELO ratings of at least 2000, which is roughly the top 50 in Europe and top 13 in England. Šeško has scored 12.

  • Important disclaimer here: Gyökeres’s 11 includes four goals against Nottingham Forest and Fulham from the 2021-2022 campaign, before either had established themselves as a Premier League club (and thereby boosted their ELO rating).

Long story short: That’s where the “quality of competition" stuff comes from.

Maybe all of this is an overthink and it really is as simple as a “good players kick the ball well” type of thing. But we’re definitely going to continue to dissect both of these guys, both here in writing and on the podcast (coming Thursday!). And morons are gonna keep living via transfer ideas like this:

Meantime, you can check out film studies with actual insights, pros and cons, on both guys below.