West Ham 2 (1.8)-(2.8) 2 Arsenal: The Debrief

Arsenal lost control and the margin for error

Losing a two-goal lead is a rare occurrence, losing a two-goal lead twice in two weeks feels like a cruel cosmic joke. Before Liverpool Arsenal under Mikel Arteta had never failed to win from being 2-0 up and now they have done it twice in a row.

This feels significantly worse than the draw at Liverpool and has certainly used up Arsenal’s margin for error, but the title race is not over by any means.

Let’s get into this match before we turn the page and look ahead.

Match Graphics:

86% - Arsenal’s expected win percentage when 2-0 up after 10 minutes. Team’s going up two goals usually just do not fail to win from that position, especially when they are the favorites.

82% - Arsenal’s expected win percentage when 2-0 up after 28 minutes at Liverpool last weekend.

5.3 - Arsenal’s expected points from those positions over the last two weeks, 2.6 for Liverpool and 2.7 for West Ham

It is incredibly frustrating looking back to see those points not added to Arenal’s total right now. The Liverpool result is a little more understandable because they are a very good team but I think that there were some similar type issues that popped up in both matches that led to the team dropping points.

Arsenal’s lack of control

74% - Arsenal’s pass completion percentage from the 30th minute to the 67th minute

4 - Final third entry passes completed from the 30th minute to the 67th minute, in the opening 30 minutes Arsenal passed into the final third 15 times, in the final period after Jorginho came on Arsenal did it 19 times.

5 - Passing sequences of 7 or more passes from the 30th minute to the 67th minute, Arsenal had 11 in the 30 minutes before and 11 in the final period of the match.

55% - The percentage of Arsenal’s passes that happened in their own half from the 30th minute to the 67th minute. It was just 45% for the period before and after the middle section of the match.

This match stood out from the usual Arsenal match in that Arsenal looked totally out of control of the match for long stretches. Arsenal struggled to get through West Ham’s defense with the majority of the match played on Arsenal’s side of the field.

This match is one where it looked obvious that we were missing two of Arsenal’s most technical players in Oleksandr Zinchenko and William Saliba. Kieran Tierney tried to take up the same positions that Zinchenko does but he is just obviously not the same type of player.

51 - Passes from Tierney, 30 less than the average from Zinchenko this season

77% - Pass completion percentage from Tierney, that is pretty significantly less than the 87% average from Zinchenko this season. This was also below his expected pass completion for the passes attempted.

4 - Final third passes completed from Tierney, that is 4 less than the average from Zinchenko this season

1 - Progressive pass from Tierney, 9 less than the average from Zinchenko this season

This is not to blame Tierney, just a reflection that what Arsenal are trying to do from that role just no longer suits what Tierney is capable of doing at the same level. Zinchenko is so key to how Arsenal build out and takes the pressure off so many other players in midfield making it so it always feels like Arsenal have a spare man. The domino effect of this are pretty large, with this also probably being Thomas Partey’s worst match in a long time.

After the first 25 minutes of the match where Partey looked to be at his normal level, he simply seemed to disappear. From the 25th minute until he was subbed he did the following:

16 - Completed passes on 80% pass completion

0 - Final third entry passes

1 - Progressive pass

0 - Progressive carries

2 - Times lost possession, including a silly flick attempt that led to a penalty (you can read more about the reasoning behind the refereeing here in the VAR review on ESPN)

0 - Tackles, interceptions, and blocked passes, dribbled past twice

It is a disappointing performance for him and perhaps it is again not all on him. This is a match where maybe Granit Xhaka and Martin Ødegaard needed to help provide more support, especially when it became clear that Arsenal were having trouble progressing out of their own half.

One of the things that comes out this match, is the question of if Partey can actually handle being a single pivot. On paper, he has been the single pivot in a 4-3-3, but in reality, it almost never has been with Zinchenko taking on a massive role in buildup and actually setting the temp for the team in buildup with Partey adding defensive work and ability to play off of the tempo that has been set to be the secondary progressor.

The difference in the overall average distances in this match is very different than other matches where Arsenal have had most of the ball.

The person who comes out of this match looking more important is Zinchenko and perhaps also _Jorginho_. When Jorginho came on, he added some pretty instant control because his ability at the “six” is a lot more like what Zinchenko is able to bring setting the tempo.

28 - Passes completed on 97% completion

7 - Final third entry passes completed

2 - Progressive passes completed (5 on the more generous FBRef definition)

1 - Progressive carry

1 - Time lost possession

I have been playing around with the idea that should Zinchenko miss time, getting Jorginho into the match (or Xhaka to LB) might be something that the team needs to perhaps consider.

The Margin for Error is gone

41% - Arsenal’s title odds in my latest simulation. That is down from 61% before Liverpool and 49% before West Ham. Arsenal have an edge on the table but they are now clearly the underdogs in this fight.

52% - The odds that this comes down to the last day still being in the balance.

19 - Arsenal’s magic number, Arsenal do not need to be perfect but they do need to be close to it to guarantee things. Arsenal can win 6 and draw one and guarantee the title.

4% - The current odds that Manchester City win out.

96% - The simulated odds that Manchester City drop points somewhere along the way. Saying the above in a slightly different way.

How the Manchester City results change title-winning odds:

82% - If Arsenal win at the Etihad, they go on to win the title 82% of the time, Arsenal winning happens about 25% of the time in the simulations.

49% - If Arsenal draw at the Etihad, they go on to win the title 49% of the time, Arsenal drawing happens about 18% of the time in the simulations.

20% - If Arsenal lose at the Etihad, they go on to win the title 20% of the time, Arsenal losing happens about 57% of the time in the simulations.

What I get from this right now is that this match is obviously the biggest leverage match on the schedule but it also isn’t a pure title decider with more potential twists and turns that could come out of it.