Adam ruins everything: João Félix

The Portuguese attacker would be a fun addition to Arsenal. Here's why it's unlikely to happen.

Adam ruins everything is an as-often-as-needed series where Adam Rae Voge explains why a popular link or fan-backed transfer idea shouldn’t — or won’t — happen.

It was a script so good you’d think Hollywood writers produced it: Shortly after one attacker, Arsenal’s Gabriel Jesus, hobbled off the pitch, rumors starting gaining steam that Portugal’s João Félix had finally had enough of Diego Simeone and Atletico Madrid. Within days, it became clear that Jesus would miss significant time, probably around three months, in a window which just happens to overlap with when Félix is likely to move. Arsenal had scouted the one-time Benfica wonderkid, who moved to Madrid for €126 million in 2019, and went so far as to enquire about him.

Bring him to the Emirates, then, right?! Well, it may not be so easy.

Now, before I launch into this whole thing, let me get a couple of things right at the top of the record: I do not believe that João Félix is too good for Arsenal. I don’t believe Arsenal are not a big enough club for João Félix, nor do I believe that they don’t have the pull or don’t have an attractive enough project to bring in a player of his caliber. This also isn’t about whether I rate Félix, or what the numbers say about him (maybe I’ll do that for premium readers later).

This is about whether I think there’s a real, honest-to-goodness chance of Félix tapping that cannon badge after a smart goal at any point in the near future. And to be as succinct as possible: I don’t.

If Arsenal could land Félix, the club would add a smooth-passing, versatile forward with a record of efficient finishing and solid ballcarrying. He’s played on the right (back in his Sporting days), on the left (most of his recent minutes at Atleti as well as for Portugal), and has dropped into a central role as well (sometimes by himself, sometimes with a partner like Luis Suarez). And for the record, I’d love to be proven wrong here! But the timing is just not right.

As I’ve written before, Arsenal have worked hard to overhaul their squad from its bloated Raul Sanllehi form to an efficient, young core that can grow together in both ability and salary. When Gabriel Jesus signed over the summer, he became just the second player on the roster making more than £200,000 per week.

To paraphrase Josh Kroenke, this was a Europa League squad on a Champions League budget. And now that’s been slashed, and as the club itself has said, it needs to reach the Champions League again to re-establish a self-sustaining funding model. That means you can spend money as long as you make money. And likely few (if any) Todd Boehly-esque shopping sprees that last a whole summer. And Arsenal aren’t back in the Champions League yet, by the way.

As Arsenal assemble the final pieces of their squad moving forward, they’ll look for players that 1) can elevate the club, preferably both now and over the next several years, and 2) fit into that financial model. To me, that likely means that big acquisitions could mean 1) a big fee or 2) big wages, but probably not both at the same time. Jesus, for the record, was at minimum a £110m investment, one of the club’s largest ever.

While a player like Mykhailo Mudryk might cost as much as £60-80 million in a transfer fee, he’s also likely to come in well below a star’s wage. It’s hard to find wage data on Shakhtar Donetsk, but their average wage a couple of years ago was around €13,000 per week. Despite being one of the best players in the side, Mudryk is also one of the youngest, so let’s generously say he’s on an average wage. Arsenal could quadruple his wage to something more like £60,000 per week over five years, sign him for £65 million, and still come nowhere near the Gabriel Jesus investment. (This would equal £80.6 million, or 73% of that Jesus outlay).

João Félix, though, is a completely different story. At just 23 years old, he’s on around £240,000 per week (acknowledging that wage data is always tough to confirm). That’s more than Thomas Partey, nearly three times Gabriel Martinelli, more than Arsenal are offering Bukayo Saka in his contract extension. Even if they could get him to take equal wages in a move, it disrupts the squad’s pay structure quite a bit and sets a new high bar for any player negotiating an extension. Not something a self-sustaining club would bring on itself.

And that’s of course ignoring the transfer fee. Atleti supposedly want €130 million (£112 million) for him. Now, I don’t think they’ll get all of that, but any idea what fee Arsenal would have to pay to match what they invested into the Jesus deal, keeping Félix’s current wage? It would take only £50 million, and I don’t think Atleti would take that. (FWIW: Fabrizio Romano said just today it would take €100m+.)

A topic I won’t cover in detail, but gets in the way too, is squad balance. While Félix can cover three positions and that’s a great tool to have, the financial outlay means he and Jesus are must-plays when they’re both healthy. That relegates one of Saka or Martinelli (probably the latter) to a lesser role, which feels unlikely. They’re more likely to push either of those players with a capable understudy-at-first type.

For what it’s worth, I don’t think Arsenal are yet at that Bayern Munich or Chelsea level where they can have a fourth attacker making millions while starting a third of their games. Their revenue certainly isn’t. Maybe one day, but not just yet. And no, there aren’t actually clubs comparable to Arsenal who split time evenly between multiple very good/star players.

Any time I bring up this kind of stuff, I get the same buzzwords back. Fear of competition. No ambition. This could be Arsenal’s Van Dijk. I understand it all. But Arsenal also don’t have their Coutinho sale to fund these big moves, are fresh off £400m in funding from KSE to cover for COVID losses and restore the squad’s balance, don’t have an open starting role to fill, and for what it’s worth, I don’t think they’re exactly copying Liverpool, anyway. Just because that club made two big signings doesn’t mean Arsenal should or will, but I digress.

In a perfect world, Arsenal would sign a Félix to cover this stretch where Gabriel Jesus, a transformative player, isn’t available. They would be a top spender every window to keep pace with Manchester City and Chelsea. And they’d do it in a smart way, too! But as we’ve seen in past windows, first last January, and now this past summer, they’re not going to move just to do it. Especially not to cover a stretch that may be somewhere between 10 and 15 games. And no, that doesn’t mean I think they’re trying to throw the title race, I just think they signed Eddie Nketiah for five years because they trust him.

I’m no more excited than you to find out how they’ll grit through January and February. But at the end of the day I’m also a realist. And João Félix, per reports, is probably headed to PSG anyway, where he can play in the Champions League this season and make probably even more money every year than he makes right now.

Meanwhile, Arsenal are probably still looking at the Mudryks of the world. But that’s not exactly a small deal in itself.

Thanks for reading the first Adam Ruins Everything on Cannon Stats. Adam has previously ruined links to Frenkie De Jong and Erling Haaland on Twitter, and looks forward to raining on future fan-led transfer theories.