Looking at the bench that Arsenal have put out over the last couple of matches is not the prettiest situation.
The injury bug has bitten a lot of Premier League teams this season and Arsenal is no different. Knock on wood but so far it has hit the rotation and backup players right now but if there are further injuries it could get ugly quick in a few positions.
I like to track the depth chart for Arsenal and I think that this is roughly the current situation that the team has.
Let’s go through things.
The Injuries
The defensive midfielder depth has gotten bad quickly with both Jorhinho and Mohamed Elneny being lost to short-term injuries in just the last week but hopefully, both truly are just short-term injuries. There isn’t a lot of detail on Jorginho but I hope (no inside information) he is good enough to feature for the bench against Liverpool.
Thomas Partey has been out since the beginning of November and given that was a 6-8 week type injury he is potentially on the cusp of a return but the exact return is uncertain.
Takehiro Tomiyasu hurt his calf in Arsenal’s match against Wolves at the beginning of December and while I am not an injury expert by any stretch of the imagination I have seldom gone wrong thinking 6-8 weeks for a muscle injury and that would put him out until mid-January.
Fabio Vieira had an operation on his groin at the end of November and that will see him out through at least mid-January (but it wouldn’t surprise me if this more 12 weeks than 8 weeks).
Jurrien Timber has been out with an ACL injury and this is typically a 9-12 month injury with often it taking a fair amount of time after to regain full sharpness. I know there is a lot of rumors circulating about a quicker return for him but I am going to remain skeptical that he is ready for anything before pre-season 24-25 until shown otherwise.
International Cups
The Africa Cup of Nations runs from January 13 through the final on February 11, 2024. Ghana looks like they should advance from the group. Still, they aren’t among the favorites to win the tournament (looks like roughly 9th best odds), so that would look like realistically ending their involvement around the 2nd or 3rd of February.
The big question would be what sort of shape Partey would return to Arsenal in, based on his track record I remain inclined to not depend on him to provide minutes and anything he can provide is a bonus.
The Asian Cup has essentially the same schedule running from January 12 through February 10. I can’t find futures bets for this but Japan is the highest-rated team in the Asian Confederation making it likely that they should do well in this tournament, potentially playing to the late stages.
The complicating factor for this is that Tomiyasu’s injury return date could be one that overlaps with the start of the tournament. He’s an important part of the team so Japan might still risk bringing him with the team but it isn’t certain. This could be a good way to get him back to fitness but it could also reaggravate if he rushes back. Like Partey, his track record doesn’t point to a player who is bulletproof and probably can’t be depended on for a huge contribution.
Both players will probably miss the FA Cup match with Liverpool on January 7th and depending on how long they are with their teams will probably miss Crystal Palace at home, Nottingham Forrest away, Liverpool at home, and potentially West Ham away (Feb 10 so if they make finals this is out for sure, and very likely out if they make semi-final).
Does this change priorities for January?
The current situation isn’t ideal, but dealing with injuries never is. It does seem like several are close to a return and that would really help how things look. Right now looking at defensive midfielder and it looks bare but in two weeks that could go from a worry to basically full strength.
The defensive line was perhaps one light to start the season with 7 trusted players (I am not counting Cedric Soares here) for 8 spots. That was cut down to 6 with Timber going down in the first match and now it looks a bit sketchy with Tomiyasu’s injury history, his current injury, and pending international duty.
The attack is probably the best situated but it is also perhaps a player-light with 7 seemingly trusted players but 9 total for 10 spots across the 5 attacking roles. It would help me feel better with Emile Smith Rowe and Reiss Nelson impressed and looked like they could move into the trusted camp.
A month ago I went through the positional needs and ranked the needs.
I went defender (potentially a dm/rb hybrid would be ideal) as the top priority and I still think that this is the position that raises Arsenal’s floor the highest right now.
I had midfield second but I think now this is my third choice (unless it is again something that can cover right back as well) given that it does look like things are starting to gel with Rice, Odegaard, and Havertz.
I had forward, and specifically wide forward as my third priority but I think this is the area that actually provides the chance for the highest chance to raise the ceiling for this team. Between Nketiah, Trossard, and Havertz Arsenal have pretty incredible depth and options at the backup center forward spot, I don’t think the same can be said with the wide spots.
The Reiss Nelson extension is looking more head-scratching by the week to me. He could and should be getting more minutes at the end of matches to attack fullbacks as the most natural wide player in the team but he has gotten just 7 short stints, with just one appearance before the 70th minute, and just 2 before the 75th minute.
Saka and Martinelli are obviously going to play the majority of the minutes but the demands on their energy in these positions is high and they often look in need of a break by the 70-minute mark. Trossard is a good option but he is much more of an interior option that while he can hold width and attack a fullback that is not his natural inclination or strength.
Overall I am very happy with the state of the team, I think currently Arsenal are the best team in the Premier League but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t room for improvement.
Great stuff, Scott. It's one thing to talk about our bad-luck with injuries. It's another to see it written down in a table format like you've done and truly see how thin we are right now at defense and in midfield.
Great article as always Scott (Adam’s articles are also great xx)! Was wondering is there any ideas on reviving the pod? Understandable that it might me problematic for the holidays season but could be great fun in January with all the games/rumors coming around!